Sir Henry will not win the Lord might

Race : Judgemont International – Grade I – $600,000
Track : Surrey (ENG)
Restrictions : All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance : A mile and five sixteenths on the Turf

We travel to York this week which surprise surprise is in Yorkshire not Surrey to watch the Jugemount International. This is of course sponsored by Juddmonte Farms and always has a strong hand from their horses running in real life. York in real life is a track which is fair and galloping. Interestingly for a course with a long straight horses need to be near the pace it is hard to make up a lot of ground at York. This could have a lot to do with the clay soil which can be very gluey when a lot of rain over a long period occurs and with short heavy bursts make the top very wet but leave a hard base somewhat like dirt racing. That being said it has excellent viewing and facilities and is one of the best courses in England.

As for the pedigrees of the declared runners in the real race this year, please see below:-

Giant’s Causeway*Dixieland Band*Shirley Heights
Observatory*Caerleon*Blushing Groom (winner!!!)
Danehill Dancer*Mr Prospector*Our Native
Efisio*Zafonic*In The Wings
Oasis Dream*Kingmambo*Roberto
Galileo*Danehill*Kris

Interestingly half of the field have a sire that one this race in their pedigree Giant’s Causeway, Caerleon and Roberto.

Of the 18 sires listed 15 did their running in Europe it is blatantly obvious to have a top turf horse you need a top turf pedigree and dirt horses are a waste of time unlike in the sim.

As for some interesting past winner I will only look for horses still relevant to today’s pedigrees.

Caerleon was atop class race horse that fitted the bill for a top class sire i.e. he won an open age grade 1 race at three, in fact this race. He was a top class sire and before his death was a bigger name than Danehill at Coolmore. He is now one of the world’s leading broodmare sires as well. He has had 53 graded winners since 2003 (in the sim only 5 in his last 5 crops which is terrible) more than Nureyev, Seattle Slew, Storm Cat, Deputy Minister and Seeking The Gold all wrong rated higher than him in the sim. They all need substantial downgrades where he requires an upgrade of massive proportions. He should go for a 1,000 points each week.

Halling was a dual winner of this race and is a very good sire. He is also a great influence for stamina as well. In real life since 2003 he has had 21 graded stakes winners yet none in his last 5 sim crops how come? His rating is an utter joke. In real life he has as many as Elusive Quality and Lemon Drop Kid to put his class into perspective and is one of the top 50 sires in the world. He needs a massive sim upgrade.

Singspiel is another sire who is top class in real life and is terrible in the sim he has two graded winners in his last 5 crops in the sim yet 41 in real life the same number as Smart Strike in fact in this period he is joint 19th in terms of grade stakes winners worldwide. Distorted Humor, Unbridled’s Song, Kingmambo and Awesome Again all have few graded winners in the case of AA 17 fewer yet all have higher sim ratings obviously wrongly by a long way. Singspiel is also starting to do well as a dam sire with 4graded winners in 2011 alone.

Giant’s Causeway is again high on the list of graded stakes winners in 2011 with 8 so far that is 5 behind the world’s best sire Galileo but never the less top class. He has sired 53 since 2003 which puts him up the top of the tree in terms of graded stakes winners though interestingly that figure is only half the number Danehill has had in the same period even though dead for several years!

The next four winners with runners of three or above have all sired graded stakes winners Sakhee, Nayef, Flabrav and Sulamani the first three all decent sire but nothing special capable of sire graded runners and stakes winners but not on a massive scale.

The last 5 winners all have decent prospects at stud with two having their first runners this year. All the 5 sires should sire graded runners and will do well to a certain degree. Time will tell if they reach the heights of any of the four sires I wrote about above. For interest they are Notnowcato, Authorized, Duke Of Marmalade, Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle.

PERFECT BEAST (KY) GHOSTZAPPER x NUREYEV x SEATTLE SLEW

Ghostzapper has been useless at stud. This is no surprise given he was only a brilliant racehorse after a breathing operation. He has only one graded winner and that was a massive outsider all this off horse bred at over $100k. He has to be downgraded once again in the sim this year as well. What I find amazing is he is so good on turf in the sim the brutal facts are US dirt horses are useless as turf sires the last one to make any real impact after being a top class racehorse was Sunday Silence who was not considered good enough to invest in by a US stud farm. It is the ideal time given the lack of any quality of the Us racehorses likely to retire to stud this year for Mike to do the right thing and rate all dirt horses as skids on turf until they prove otherwise as really life reflects and will be seen by several other sires in this filed. This is a very good horse saying all that. His record is good though to some extent helped by race purchases, though his last two runs showed he did not need this. He is a graded winner and can run top class speed figures and is a winner at this trip. There are no obvious negatives apart from the obvious one we can do nothing about the dud run for no reason the sim loves to let our horses produce. If that does not happen in this race he has a great chance of winning. My gut instinct is the dud race is about 80% probably though.

D.C. BLUEGRASS (KY) BLUEGRASS CAT x NIGHT SHIFT x MR. PROSPECTOR

Bluegrass Cat has his first runners as 3yo’s this year and let’s be honest they are poor in fact dire. He has one grade 3 winner and no horse rated over 110 worldwide. This is off a fee of $50k he is a totally flop. He is going to be hard to market at above $5k next year given his poor record so far. Again he is another horse who should never have been allowed to sire anything of note on the turf. His record in England, Ireland and France as a sire has been so bad they have not even netted a winner! That is what his turf rating as a sire should have been yet once again he is a US dirt sire ludicrously over rated on the turf once again backing up the adage that these sire should be rated as skid by default until proving otherwise. He is though a top class horse who has been very well managed by his owner. He has the class and speed figures to win a race of this type and is in very good form. He is another who could bounce. Looking from the outside in his ability as 9 – 9.5f would give me some reservations about the trip although he has won at 10f though not in graded company. If he handles the trip he has decent place claims here.

GOTTCHA AP (FL) GOTTCHA GOLD x A.P. INDY x CARO (IRE)

Let’s not beat about the bush this horse should move slower on turf than a snail without any slime. He has the ultimate cannot run faster than 30 pedigree. His sire a US dirt horse that won a few grade 3 dirt races based in Florida has no right to sire a turf horses of any ability I can think of 12 point sires far superior to this horse in fact and on paper. The issue also raises the problem of regional sires again if on paper well bred horse turn up in lesser locations there is a reason in real life and it should be so in the sim as well. The reason is they are useless. That being said the owner has done well and paced this horse well. His speed figures and class of form though leave him with a lot to do here. He has not one a stakes race let alone a graded race and his only hope is that all the other jocks gorge themselves at the chocolate factory and put up 3 stone overweight. His chances look slim to nonexistent.

BURNED OUT STAR (IRE) INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x MONTJEU (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD

Invincible Spirit is a very good sire and is on the up he was in the top 20 sires last year in terms of graded winners worldwide and set a record for the number of 2yo winners in a year. His son Born To Sea is the most anticipated 2yo in the current year being the last runner out of the outstanding mare Urban Sea the dam of the world’s best sire Galileo. One interesting facet of this sire is that his sim offspring stay further in general than they do in real life he is more a sprinter miler sire yet many sim offspring seem to stay 10f well. This horse is no exception and is helped by having a lot of stamina on the back end so it is a believable breeding and a sensible one which should be rewarded and has been. He was well claimed by connections and has been a stakes winner and graded placed overall well handled. The trip should be no problem for him he has the ability to make the frame and if a few have off days you never know today could well be his day.

GAL’S DRAKON (IRE) PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) x GALILEO (IRE) x DEPUTY MINISTER

Here is another sire that the sim treats like trash. He is a seriously good sire let’s look at the facts. Since 2003 he has sired 15 grade 1 winners worldwide on the turf. A P Indy has sired 3 look at the sim records of both on turf and justify them, you cannot Peintre Celebre is a far superior turf stallion and should be rated as such in the sim there respective ratings are not even close to being correct. In fact Peintre Celbere mind non US stallions are in general grossly underrated and US ludicrously overrated. This horse is on the up which is good news he likes the trip and can handle the class of this race as well. If he reproduces his run from last time out here he has to have a decent shout of making the frame in what overall looks a competitive race.

MILES MILITIS (KY) MAJESTIC WARRIOR x WAR CHANT x STORM CAT

Here we go another worthless sire for turf getting a graded runner in fact winner in the past. This horse did not last his 3yo season and managed one grade win on dirt at two this horse is a total skid on turf and offers little or nothing to dirt breeders either. Compare him to Literato an open age turf grade 1 winner at three and champion racehorse at a good stud in France where his sire was a multiple graded producer almost each year. Which one should have the higher sim rating blatantly obvious the later by a mile as in general open age grade 1 winners make the best sires of the top 5 sires of graded winners worldwide in 2011 four of them one open age grade 1 races at three. When compared against the overall population of sires the percentage to win open age grade 1 races at three is very low and that so many of them are very successful should indicate sires who achieved that feat without the need of a breathing operation and or were unable to complete their 3yo season through injury should be the high rated new stallions each year in the sim as statistically they have the greatest chance of success. This sire needs a massive sim downgrade already based on probability of success especially on turf to about 5% of the level of Literato or in simple terms their sim abilities should be swapped around. This horse is though very good and been very well managed by his owner. He post good speed figures likes the trip and is a graded stakes winner. The step up to 10f should suit and it would be no surprise if he made the frame.

LEGENDS OF ROCK (KY) ROCK HARD TEN x SEATTLE SLEW x DANZIG

Here we go again another US dirt horse that has failed as a stallion and on turf is hopeless as well. Hs turf ratings in the sim are very high and cannot be justified in any way he was an obvious turf 30 point sire and has proved that to be the case. Overall his record is poor with no horses rated over 115 and one over 110 in fact the leader worldwide in terms of third crop runners and class Dubawi has 21 rated over 110 which shows the level of downgrade required with this sire to get him in line with the quality of Dubawi who on paper had the perfect stallion profile and so it has proved so far. This fellow is a top class horse though is last few runs have been slightly below par. This could be for two reasons firstly he was very good in his early 3yo carrier so it maybe others have improved past him. It is also worth noting that his form dipped slightly last summer and certain horse do better at different times of year in the sim though those patterns and trends are not so obvious these days because of wear and tear. I hope the later excuse is the reason for the owner. He has the ability to win this but his form cycle suggests otherwise at present and thus is passed over for selection here.

ROYAL DRAKON (IRE) AUTHORIZED x ROYAL ACADEMY x STORM CAT

Authorized has his first runners this year and as would be expected on breeding they look slow to come to hand and more 3yo types though a couple of runners appear promising especially one in France. Royal Academy is worth talking about he is a top dam sire in real life with 41graded winners since 2003 include two classic winners yet in the sim in his last 5 crops he has managed 2 he obviously is massively underrated and is worth better support as well. His half sisters son Storm Cat interestingly has the same number of graded winners as a broodmare sire this year yet there sim percentages are millions of miles apart and should not be one obviously needs a massive downgrade the other upgrade. This horse has a nice upward profile which is nice to see he can handle the class as he is a grade winner as well. The big issue is the trip and if I am honest it is too short for him like another in this race it would have been interesting to see him contest the 2 mile race on the card. I have to be honest and cannot see him at the trip making the frame.

THE OIL RULES ALL (KY) UNBRIDLED’S SONG x SEATTLE SLEW x NORTHERN DANCER

On paper this horse has no reason to be good on turf in fact he has sired zero stakes winners in Europe which tells its own story. It will be interesting to see how horse’s with him in the pedigree do as the introduction of drug free racing is rolled out in the USA I know his own sire ran poorly on several occasions when not allowed to run on drugs because of the rules. It would appear those genetic frailties are apparent in Unbridled’s Song as well hence why his offspring are next to useless when run outside of the USA. This horse has sort of got his form back recently running reasonably well. Looking in from the outside this horse has some interesting form the one that stands out is over 14f+ he has never been out of the frame with 2 wins and a third. This is a hot race at 10f maybe a pop at the 2 mile graded race would have increased the chances of success that we will never know though.

MOUNT SAMSON (IRE) DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x GONE WEST x NIJINSKY II

Danehill dancer has been a very good sire working his way from the bargain basement upwards. He is though mainly a sire of sprinter milers this is borne out by the fact his average winning distance is 7.9f. Interestingly when bred to Gone West in real life the results are very poor with no horse being remotely near listed class let alone graded class. This though does reflect the fact Gone West is a sire massively over rated in the sim. This horse is a class act and has the ability to win this race. His form is rock solid as well the only two negatives being he has not put in a bad run in ages and in his last couple of starts has just been beaten which may suggest his powers are on the wane though that is to be seen.

As for my selections:-

1 GAL’S DRAKON (IRE)
2 MOUNT SAMSON (IRE)
3 PERFECT BEAST (KY)