Establishing A New Regime: Puppet Regime Looks To Take The Next Step in Cherry Limb Stakes
The big guns are tucked away for another week, waiting for the Breeders’ Bowl, but these weeks just before the Breeders’ Bowl, when top contenders all retreat to the safety of their barns, annually turns into an important few weeks: new stars make their presence known, and B-tier horses get a chance to prove that they deserve a shot at the divisional elites.
Here, eleven three year olds line up in the GII Cherry Limb Stakes, going 9 furlongs on firm turf for $250,000. Let’s take a look at what we have to look forward to:
Cherry Limb Stakes
Grade II
A mile and one eighth
Firm Turf
$250,000
All horses, 3 years old
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments |
1 | 7/1 | Ranked 54th in the division, I’ve personally seen the talent of this colt on display; I owned the beaten favorite in the G2 Choo Choo Stakes, and my colt had no answer for this one’s stretch kick. That dominating performance, however, was over 12 furlongs, and this one strikes me as more of a one-paced stout closer than a brilliant miler/nine furlong type horse. He’s obviously talented, but the trip may be too short. | ||||
2 | GO FOR BULL | 8/1 | I don’t quite see 8/1 on this horse. His last three outings have been disasters, you have to go back 7 starts for find a win, and his best effort seems like it would still leave him on the outside looking in. Needs a major form reversal if he wants to compete here, and a 9% jock isn’t going to help his chances of pulling that off. | |||
3 | ASCORBICO | 6/1 | Similar competition in the Boston Derby was a little bit too tough, but he followed that effort up with a devastating score over ungraded stakes company last time out. The thing to be careful of with this one is the bounce: after that huge effort, he may regress a little bit. A regression may still leave him good enough for a piece of the pie, however. | |||
4 | 11/1 | Rides two straight wins into the race, and has recorded solid 101 speed figures in each of his last two. Long odds for a horse with almost the same qualifications as Ascorbico, and this could be a fantastic spot for him. Pay attention to the fact that while an 8: 3-0-1 record isn’t all that imposing, he’s 2: 2-0-0 on the turf, with an average winning distance on the lawn of 3 ½ lengths. Certainly the most exciting prospective star in the race. | ||||
5 | RED | 12/1 | Eight races back, he ran a 96 speed figure, which might put him somewhere midpack in this one. Since then, he’s run one winning race, and done very little else of note. He’s unlikely to end that here, so look elsewhere for value. | |||
6 | SCOOBIS ZIG | 9/2 | Second choice in the race looks to be the controlling speed, but while his last outing was a brilliant effort, I’m not thrilled to see such an obvious career best just before what figures to be the toughest test of his career. He can run well off of his best and contend for top three in this field, so its really a matter of, if he regresses, how much can he afford to before he’ll turn in a poor performance? | |||
7 | JUDDMONTE PLEASE | 67/1 | Somehow, I’m unimpressed by a $3,500 claimer in a G2 stakes. Better placement is advised for this one. | |||
8 | LIKE A PORCUPINE | 7/1 | Kingmambo colt is ranked 16th in the division, and has banked $800,000+. That said, he’s been up and down as of late, and his odds are more based on back class than current form. I’m not sure he’s good enough right now to chase down some of the bigger contenders in this one. | |||
9 | REAL PLAYER(IRE) | 5/1 | The question with this one is whether he’s a better horse on turf than on dirt. He’s bred for it, and he seemed to like it well enough in his first start over the surface last time out, but he’s never tried this type of competition on the lawn. He seemed to be just below graded stakes quality on the dirt, but he’s an unknown quantity today. | |||
10 | WONDERBOY DOT COM | 26/1 | Allowance to G2 company is a hard jump, especially when his figures in the allowance races don’t really measure up to those in graded races. Pass. | |||
11 | PUPPET REGIME | 4/1 | The field is bookended by colts that have both beaten up on my own colts; this one made short work of one of my turf milers when breaking his maiden, and hasn’t looked back since. Six race win streak was snapped last time out when he looked dull testing graded competition for the first time, but look for him to rebound in a big way here. If someone is going to beat Scoobis Zig and |