Is Defending Champ Sharp Enough?
The cross-hairs surround defending champion Carnival of Love, who breaks from the rail in a six-horse field in Saturday’s G1 Sword Swallower Stakes in Upper New York.
#1 Carnival of Love 3-1 (Giant’s Causeway) has won an incredible $8.6 million in his career. His gilded cap includes the following feathers: the G1 Ark de ComicDog, which he’s won two years running, the G1 Queen’s Dish at 10 furlongs, the G1 Reclamation (R) at 13 panels, and this race, which he won last year. The five year-old hasn’t hit paydirt since October’s Ark win, and his recent travels have been rough – he’s just 0-0-2 from his last seven starts, albeit against top flight company. At five years old, I’m not ready to think this one is done yet, but his late punch has been more of a poke than a haymaker of late. Interesting that Brennan, who rode him to victory here last year, sits out while Radzinski takes the mount.
#2 Skunkjeureyev 3-1 (Montjeu) is a four-year old winner of seven races and $720k. Nice credentials but the fact that he seems overmatched here speaks to the quality of the field. A Grade III winner at the distance, he has been getting smaller checks of late in good efforts vs. G1 and G2 company in Europe. Popped SPs of 110 in his last two tries at this distance and should be in the mix for a piece of the pie, but not the winner’s share. Underlaid price.
Favored #3 Faraday Cage 5/2 (Henrythenavigator) annexed the G1 Man Of War going 1 3/8m downstate on July 9 and now makes the logical next step to try for an impressive summer double. The four year-old colt out a Redoute’s Choice x Miswaki mare does his best running at this turf classic distance, in which he won the July 2010 G1 Owner’s Stakes vs. three year-olds in Ontario. He was absolutely devastating that day (SP 111, won by 4) and nearly pulled off a huge shocker at 22-1 in missing by a head in the Breeders’ Bowl Turf at this distance in Kentucky. There is a bit of a problem with minor awards for this one (record at 12f on the grass is 9-2-4-1) but this is a classy horse who may be rounding back into his best form. Look out.
#4 Tex Gold 7/2 (Sadler’s Wells) tuned up for this one with an allowance romp last month and has a bit of an advantage over the rest of the field in that he hasn’t been asked to run much of late. This will only be his fourth start since last November, and only his second Grade I try in that time. A winner of 11 races and nearly $5M, this is a classy horse, and texasace certainly doesn’t push him to run too often. It should be noted that this horse geared up for his four year-old campaign in a similarly slow manner and exploded to a G1 win in the Saint Cloud Grand Prix last June. In fact, this is a nearly identical pattern: a classified allowance romp at short odds at 11f off a three month layoff, followed by a step up to Grade I company at 1 1/2m. I love these pattern plays and I’ll be all over this one. Lone speed too.
#5 Grand Ball 9/2 (Dynaformer) blew Grade II company away in May down under at 1 1/4m, and has three G2 titles to his name, to go along with a Grade I triumph at 1 1/4m and a head-bob G1 defeat at this distance. Grand Ball is 9-for-30 lifetime but just 3-for-19 away from his preferred California track. If you look at his graded stakes exploits, you see a similar spread. In California, Grand Ball is 7-3-3-0; away from California, he’s just 10-1-2-0! Ran fifth in this race last year. Certainly qualifies on class, but I don’t think this five year-old is able to do the job away from the sunny confines of SoCal.
#6 Burnt Lawn 9-1 (Montjeu) just missed by a head in the G1 United Countries last time out at 11f at 15-1. An inconsistent sort who has likely battled injuries, ‘Lawn had one tremendous day in the sun last April when he won the G1 Sydney Derby as a three year-old at 1 1/2m. He hasn’t really improved all that much since, and I have to wonder if SP 109 last time out was a fluke. He seems to be focused on marathon distances of late but don’t discount his ability going shorter… ran a nice third in the Saint Cloud at this distance. Bomb threat.
Selections: Everything points to Tex Gold as the winner for me. The pattern is so enticing, as is the fact that he should be all alone dictating the tempo to a small field at a long distance. Faraday Cage’s last is good enough to take this. Carnival of Love should be by the faders for third.