Spotlight Race of the Week-Michigan
Due to personal time restraints, I was unable to do a Spotlight race last week, but we’re back and ready to go this week. Before we start, just a quick recap from the last Spotlight race two weeks ago in British Columbia featuring $40k claimers.
In that race, I felt there were quite a few speedsters in the race and no strong closers and my top pick went to Shoot and Scat who turned out to be the correct choice, wiring the field by picking up his twelve career win and also being targeted as a claim from the race.
I Am Luis ran second in the latter half of the race and finished right there with Millennium Bug, who ran second in the first half of the race, finishing third. My second choice Gum Drop Mountain came up empty and finished fifth, however, I Am Luis as my third choice helped complete the exacta.
This week we are exploring the 12th race at Michigan. This is a bid race sponsored by Beng who has chosen a $4,000 claiming race going on the dirt at a mile and a quarter. This is open to all horses age 4 or older but is restricted to those that are non-winners of one race in their last nine starts.
1. Hyperbaric 5-1 This colt is onto his seventh trainer since this time last year. Seems to attract a lot of attention from trainers with the low odds he tends to be sent off at. Has four career wins in over 40 starts, last winning in December, 2009 where he had a three race win streak going. With five starts in races at 10 furlongs, best finish was a second and speed of 89 last August, over this same track. He’s been off the board in last five but change in barns could make a difference.
2. Burning Crusade 5-2 This is the entrant for our race sponsor Beng. Horse has been racing every month with no significant rest since early 2008. But that has now changed as he’s coming back from an 8 week layoff. He put in respectful second two races back on turf going 10f on this track. Takes large drop from $25k claimers and should be competitive with the rest and class drop.
3. Fight for Ami 11-1 Hasn’t seen winner’s circle in last 21 starts. This one is capable of hitting speeds in the 90’s and has exceeded 100 before, but has not hit the 90’s since January. I believe this race will require a 90 speed or higher to win and this guy may be wearing down a bit and in need of a decent layoff. He’s had some nice outings on the grass and I think that surface might be worth a shot too, but in this race, I’m taking a pass.
4. Reach for the Gold 2-1 From the fall of 2009 to the fall of 2010 this horse was hitting speeds of 100 and greater with regular frequency. His last win was last August where he won three of four races with speeds of 104 up to 113. Since that last win, he’s been kept at bay and dropped in class ranks from low end stake races, through the allowance level and down through the claimer ranks. His last race was an 11f Starter Allowance finishing well back with a speed of 75, the lowest speed he’s charted since his maiden days. This came with only two weeks rest between races. He’s been sitting on the sidelines for two months and could quite possibly return with a big race, but distances of 10f and up have been a problem for this horse.
5. El Roy 32-1 Looks like a steep longshot in this race. Has one win in 20 starts, on board only three times. Top speed of 80 came in sole win in maiden race in the spring of 2010. Has one race at 10 furlongs and finished well back running on the slop, which this horse despises. Last start was at 9f on fast track with no improvement. Hard to make a case for this guy but I do love his name and I love the Jetsons!
6. Endless Winter 5-2 Last win was at tail end of 2009 racing season. Has 9 races so far this year, going to the post roughly every two weeks through June and failing to hit the board each start but with some respectful mid-90 speeds. Was racing allowance and upper claiming levels throughout this year. Has switched barns since last race a month ago. Big drop in claiming level from $50k and gets a month rest this time. Improvement is expected from this one despite going longest distance of career.
7. Rocka By Slew 18-1 Enters race after two month layoff. Speeds had been dropping throughout 2011 and looks to me horse was asking for a rest. He’s had it and returns but faces tough task with only one career win under belt. Past history shows competitive performances at 9 and 9 ½ furlongs. Should be okay with 10 furlongs and potential surprise factor.
8. Marmalade 13-1 Has won 9 races in 34 career starts on the dirt course. Interestingly, has never won a race with odds over 9-2. Came in second going 12 furlongs in last at 8-1 with speed of 82, which is the best thus far in 2011 and this came in $2k claiming field. That came after a near 2-month rest and this is second race back which can lead to a pop. While the rest was due, I’m not sure she will get the big pop she needs as top career speed is 87 and I believe the winner will need a speed in the 90’s to gain victory in this race. Added, this is the only girl in the field. In this race, it looks to work against her.
No speedsters in this race. Looks to me that Marmalade will link up with Fight for Ami for the front spot. Neither really look like they will last on the front to me for the entire race. Burning Crusade looks to be best suited for this race. Distance fits well and speeds have been competitive getting my top selection.
Rolling the dice on my next two choices. Second spot going with Endless Winter with hopes he can handle the distance and benefits from the drop in level.
Rocka by Slew gets third choice and may bet good journey after rest break .