Pace Likely to Be Hot in Foul Mouth
Ten distaffers take to the Newmarket turf course on Saturday in search of Grade I glory. The one mile race has drawn some excellent routers as well as sprinters, which makes for an intriguing race.
#1 Stealth Surprise 9/2 is unlikely to be able to sneak up on anyone who reads the past performances: she posted consecutive SP 110+ efforts at 7f and is may be speed of the speed in this field laced with early zip. The fact that she’s drawn the rail makes it extra likely that this Mineshaft five year-old will be out early. She hasn’t tried a route in a long time, and those were early enough in her career that they offer little guidance today. Can she carry her speed an extra furlong? It’s hard to say… and she also has a bit of a class problem, as her lone graded try was a disaster.
#2 Nevertryneverfail 8-1 will be on the early pace. The four year-old daughter of Unbridled’s Song has raced 14 times on turf, and has led at the first and second call 14 times. In fact, she’s only been headed before the stretch call once, and that was at six furlongs. She ran on May 21 in the G1 Ugly Breeders Bowl Distaff, an event at 1 1/8m, and made all the running until tiring to 5th in the lane in a 14-horse field. Nice to see that she gets a smaller field here and gets back to her (likely) best distance of the flat mile, where she won the G2 Mountain Vista in February (SP 112) at 15-1. That was her only try at this trip, but it was by far her most impressive race, and she seems capable of duplicating that here. Nice to see a freshening of six weeks for this one as she may have been pressed a little too hard in February, March, and April… dangerous.
More speed drawn inside in #3 Evita Peron 6-1. She is 12-for-26 lifetime on grass for nearly $1 million. She’s lost three straight stakes (all listed) and has never topped SP 107 in her 27-race career. Another speedster in here, she reached her apex in winning the G1 French 1000 Guineas at three at this distance, but she never really matured into a graded-caliber distaffer. Expect speed for a half.
#4 Awesome Colac 25-1 (Awesome Again) just missed last time out in the three year-old restricted G2 Sandy Ring in France. That performance – against five rivals – earned her an SP of 100, which was her first career century mark speed figure. Nice to see that she has improved with distance (the Sandy Ring was her route debut), and with her pedigree she has every right to improve, but here we’re looking at a filly who has never faced older and doesn’t seem to be well-enough developed yet to compete at this level.
#5 Alondra’s A.P. 9-1 (A.P. Indy) is a four year-old making her graded stakes debut. Her last race was her stakes debut, and she crushed four listed stakes rivals in impressive time (SP 108) in Utah at 7.5 panels. Now stretches out to a mile, a distance at which she’s 3-for-4 lifetime on grass (all allowances, two conditioned). She might be a bit slow to compete with these on paper, but appears to be a filly on the upswing.
#6 Guineas Toast 6-1 (Kingmambo) is the defending champion, having won the 2010 Foul Mouth by a half-length in 94 seconds (SP 111). She likes Fourth of July weekend, having missed by just a head on July 4, 2009 in the G2 Call for Cash. While quite a mare, ‘Toast has only won four races in the last two years – two conditioned allowance races, last year’s renewal of this race, and the G1 DPCD VIII Penn Distaff in December 2009 – though all of them have been at this exact distance. Lifetime winner of over $1.5M is coming off a so-so 4th in the G3 Ridgewood Jewel (SP 107) at one mile, her best distance by far, where she has six wins, including two Grade I titles. Will be back in the pack early and can win this on her best.
#7 Feels Like Magic 6-1 (A.P. Indy) annexed the G3 Wilshire Boulevard in California in April at one mile (SP 112) to tally her first stakes win, and was second behind ‘Never’ in the G2 Mountain Vista. Six-for-14 lifetime on grass, she’s hit SP 110 just twice, but both were at a mile. Had nothing in her last at nine furlongs, but should move up here on the turn back.
It’s been an impressive, patient buildup for the handlers of #8 Rozelle Sumo 5-1 (Unbridled’s Song). She broke her maiden at fourth asking as a juvenile and then won an entry- and second-level allowance. She then stayed in allowance company until she got through her N3x and N4x conditions last winter, and won an open allowance in February 2011. Where to go from there? Listed stakes, of course… and she won one of those in April 2011 at this distance. Next up? Grade III company. In her last start, she took The Board Game Distaff in Texas in her graded stakes debut. 18-8-7-1 on grass, this four year-old filly now tries the top flight. Can she do it? Perhaps. She loves the distance (her last five wins half come at one mile) and ran a good 112 SP in her last. Has a pretty versatile style, too. Look out.
I last saw #9 Screamo 4-1 in the G1 Strand Broke down under at seven furlongs, where the Giant’s Causeway four year-old closed to finish second. Now she tries two turns, a distance at which she’s never won. Still, has won $235,000 in routes in spite of her 5-0-0-1 record, thanks to a good third (SP 101) in the G1 Japanese 1000 Guineas in April 2010. A Grade I winner at three, there’s no doubting her class, and the fact that she was punching with Guineas competitors in Japan and England at this distance is promising, as is her recent SP 112 at 7.5 furlongs. If Screamo needs a brand new bag, routing could be her Prada.
#10 Blue Green Hunter 12-1 has 11 turf wins and has won $772k on the grass, but it’s been a long time since she’s won a graded stakes race. Her last seven SPs have been 103 or lower, and she appears to do her best running at 1 1/16m. Pace factor and outsider.
Selections: I’m expecting the inside three horses to enter a mutually-assured destruction pact from the get-go. The race sets up well for Rozelle Sumo, who appears ready to join the upper echelon at this level. Screamo should handle the move to a mile well. Defending champion Guineas Toast will be involved late, as will Feels Like Magic.