The Czech Derby 2011: The Biggest Field in the History…
** Grammar tolerance is advised.
The D-day is here! Czech Derby is here. This sunday, spectators in the Prague racecourse will see 91st edition of the Czech Derby. The simulated one has shorter history obviously. This will be the 3rd simulated derby. There is something, what both of these derbys have in common. They have no clear favorite. In the real one, the bookmakers tend to prefer brown colt Roches Cross(IRE). He is the winner of derby trial. Anyway, there are some doubts about his distance abilities and big question marks on some of his opponents. They can be easy to handle as well as pretty tough.
The number of participants of simulated Czech Derby broke record again. In 2009, we had just 4 runners, in 2010 we had 6 runners and this year we reached the field of 10. None of them can say, he is going to beat the others and win. The runners seems to be quite even in their chances and finish of the race could be pretty close. Let’s look at them and let’s try to guess who will accompany Bostopper (winner 2009) and Dynamic Destiny (winner 2010) to the list of winners.
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1 SATURDAYDANCEPARTY(KY) |
| Saturdaydanceparty from Lgbost Stables is an experienced runner. He slowly matured into pretty decent horse with lifetime top result in Commander Jericho Turf Route. In this 10F Taiwan stakes race, he beat 3 other horses and got his only stakes win. The owner, encouraged by nice success, sent him to the Prix the Jockey Club (G1) over 10.5F. That was where the soberness came. Saturdaydanceparty finished last, 21 1/2 lengths behind the winner. The competition here is definitely not so strong as it was in French Derby. Anyway, his last spot is not the best sign. Also there can be some questions about his distance abilities. The horse was able to succeed in the sprint races as well. May be, 12F is too long. May be it isn’t. The brown colt has a two times winner of the Derby, C Guerrero, in the saddle. Let’s see what strategy will the old guy make up. But definitely, Saturdaydanceparty is not the favorite of the race. | |
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2 BAAN BAA(IRE) |
| Bob from the former EAAA Residency brings brown colt Baan Baa to the race. And it is pretty interesting participant. I love his unusual bloodlines. Baan Baa has interesting combination of Danzig’s blood from the sire and dam-dam-sire line, connected with excellent source of stamina in Mtoto as his dam-sire. This horse was predicted to be route runner and it is good to hear, that he is able to fill these predictions. After the maiden and allowance win in the winter months, he has headed to the graded races and got the 3rd from The Palms(G3, 9F), 2nd from The Jargon Stakes(G3, 10F) and 3rd from The Oppenheimer Reunion(G3, 11F). I think, he can handle one more furlong and get the nice success from this race. Also, his graded experiences give him advantage. Baan Baa is one of the favorites in this race and Oddsmaker sees it as well. | |
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3 RAPAZ(IRE) |
| Another participant of today’s race is Rapaz, first member of Rafa Stables in this race. Rapaz has evolved slowly with the distance growing. When he got to long routes, he really showed his class. 5 lengths win in allowance made his owner to enter him to Derby de English (G1). In this (still one of the most prestigious races in sim) race, he finished 6th, 15 1/2 lengths behind the winner. This fact isn’t really impressive, but he still managed to beat six other horses. I’m not sure if it’s enough to win here. Probably not, but I still bet that today’s competition will suit him better and we will see different Rapaz here than in English Derby. Moreover, he proved he likes the distance, which is definitely advantage for today. | |
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4 PROTARAS(KY) |
| The richest horse in the start line is Protaras. He is also one of two oddsmaker’s favorite and pick #1 of the jockey Wilson. The reason of all these characteristics is obvious. Protaras finished 2nd in South African Derby (G2), behind the same horse, who won Japanese Derby later. In the Prix The Jockey Club (G1), Protaras got the 3rd money and this put him to the role of favorite. He is stakes winner already, now he has a big chance to earn his first graded triumph. The only small worry could be the distance, as he got his best speed results over 10F. I still believe, his class is sufficient for the Czech Derby. | |
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5 MIDNIGHT SALE(JPN) |
| Another fighter in the field is Midnight Sale, chestnut from Lenny’s “two evil dots” stables. Cunning trainer decided for the hard stakes debut of his horse. The horse has experience only from the allowances. He managed three wins in his career. The last one was the most impressive. Midnight Sale beat easily his opponents in ANW3L with huge 103 speed figure. He didn’t look that well before, when his speeds oscilated in 80s. The speed improvement occurred with long distance and that’s what gives him potential for this race. Also his trainer never has to be underestimated. He knows when is the horse ready for the big race. Let’s watch if he’s right again. | |
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6 L. E. PHANT(JPN) |
| Oddsmaker’s outsider of the race is called L.E. Phant. In six starts, this horse was able to win only one allowance. Also his speed figures are slightly discouraging. On the other hand, I can see what his owner sees. His speeds are getting higher with every furlong up. In his last turf race over 9.5F, he showed very promising finish. Just imagine what could happen, if we add 2.5F more. We shall see it soon. Also a “positive effect” of getting back to the right surface could play a part (as horse tried dirt last time). Still, his class is not so high to get significant success today. I believe he is horse for the future. | |
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7 DREIZHEN(KY) |
| Another “allowance-only” horse in the field is Dreizhen, second participant from Rafa Stables. She is the only mare in this race and she will have tough position. Although she is from the family of graded winners, her current form doesn’t seem to be sufficient to get to the top five. Her last two races with fillies resulted in quite easy wins, but speeds about 90 are not the best in this competition. She needs to show some improvement, the 12F should fit her though. I also like these brave steps like entering filly against colts and I have to say, I will watch her. Good luck to Dreizhen! | |
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8 ASTRONOMERS CHOICE(IRE) |
| Astronomers Choice is very good horse from the first crop of Danehill’s son Mahler. The horse broke his maiden in 9th start and right after then he add one more allowance win. He showed up his good distance abilities and he has confirmed that in The Thanks Trotter Special (Stk-10F). The competition of Japanese 2000 Guineas (G1) was too strong for him and he finished 8th out of 14. In last race The Dante’s inferno (G2-10.5F) he showed admirable performance and got 2nd spot. That’s definitely legitimate him to start here. He hasn’t tried longer race than 10.5F yet, but his running style suggests, he could be strong here as well. This is one for you to watch. | |
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9 ALEXANDRE PATO(KY) |
| Another horse and the shock from The Dante’s Inferno (G2) is Alexandre Pato. This horse was tested primarily on dirt surface and his trainer found out he inclines to the turf surface at the right time. After easy win in CPU*200 allowance, he did a massive step to the graded race named above and finished 4th with promising 98 speed. It’s hard to guess, what he has hidden for this race. We don’t know, if it wasn’t just a one race flash in The Dante’s Inferno or if he is future star. Also his bloodlines say to prefer mile or may be sprint races. But here is Alexandre Pato, very mysterious contender of today…and his participance in the race makes it very special. | |
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10 TEHUANACA(FR) |
| Oh, I just love this kind of breeding. You definitely can’t see it every day. Two stamina “monsters”, Trempolino and Vaguely Noble with kind of obscure Nureyev’s son Rudimentary. That all made very good horse and it is a great satisfaction for the breeder for his courage. Tehuanaca had fought only in allowances till today. It is obvious, that he got lot of stamina from his bloodlines. He is the only horse, who has tried today’s distance 12F and he also got the best speed mark from it. The problem is, it was just ANW2L and he needs to improve a lot to beat graded placed horses. He is also the one, who is probably going to set the pace. If he gets fast enough, he can make very interesting show from the race. I don’t think he is going to get really close to the winner today, but I’m looking forward to his next races. May be, he can be a great marathoner and show his best even over 14 or 16F. Today, I wish him good luck and I thank to the owner to see such interesting bloodlines in the race :). | |
I said most about the horses’ chances in the previous text. So, this one is just to sum up. The Czech Derby looks to be the business of three horses – Protaras, Astronomers Choice and Baan Baa. The graded experience is a good way how to win this. Behind them, it is really even field. I believe in Lenny’s eye and see Midnight Sale to be 4th. Rapaz and Alexandre Pato are very hard to predict, but I expect to see them fighting for 5th. As we go further, it’s harder and harder. L.E. Phant and Saturdaydanceparty could be slightly better than Tehuanaca and Dreizhen, but everything can happen between these, less experienced horses. I think, today is may be time for a big surprise and some of the participants can prove it.
Thank you for reading. I’m sorry for late posting of this article, but I hope I will find my some of my readers. Thanks also to owners, who sent their horses to The Czech Derby 2011. It is the biggest field, we could have seen and for me it is a great pleasure to see, that you are interested in it. It encourages me to continue in this tradition. Good luck to all the horses, let the best one win! 😉
