Los Angeles Oaks

Welcome all to the ‘Los Angeles Oaks’, a Grade II 8.5 furlong dirt stakes race for three year old fillies in California. This Saturdays field has brought together twelve fillies who will be competing on the fast dirt track this morning.

PP 1
5/1 RIVERSIDE DRIVE(KY)
O Brim ( 260 – 64 – 43 – 34 – 25% )
DYNAFORMER x GONE WEST x RIVERMAN
Bred by ritchie

RIVERSIDE DRIVE has put together an impressive racing career, having finished in the money in ten of her eleven career races. RIVERSIDE DRIVE has won in her last two outings, including putting up career high speeds in her second last race. RIVERSIDE DRIVE is one of the three odds on favourites this week at 5/1 and is also one of the four horses coming together with a max speed of 104. RIVERSIDE DRIVE has shown a preferance to running just off the lead and making a late push, I don’t expect this to change so RIVERSIDE DRIVE should be among the leaders out of the gate, and definatley lives up to the odds put in place by the handicappers.

PP 2
12/1 EASTER BASKET(KY)
R Lombard ( 41 – 4 – 6 – 4 – 10% )
MALIBU MOON x STORM CAT x NUREYEV
Bred by mountains

EASTER BASKET has put up wins in has of her outings and finished in the money in seven of her eight runs. EASTER BASKET has been stretched out in her last three runs and put up career high speed figures in her last run, a Grade III stakes race that she finished just out of the money in. EASTER BASKET is a longshot at 12/1 odds and may be above her class in this graded stakes field, however with some more seasoning or a little bit of luck EASTER BASKET may be able to pull off an upset.

PP 3
7/1 SWEEPING RUSH(KY)
L Jones ( 82 – 10 – 7 – 13 – 12% )
CURLIN x SEEKING THE GOLD x A.P. INDY
Bred by futurestar, racing in wtas02 stable

SWEEPING RUSH has finished in the money in half of her races, putting up wins in four of her ten career races. SWEEPING RUSH put up career highs in her last run where she was caught right at the wire. If SWEEPING RUSH is able to take the lead out of the gate she should be able to put up a strong fight for the win, however if she fails to take the lead out of the gate she may strugle. At 7/1 odds SWEEPING RUSH is just outside of the favourites which makes sense as she has had streaky performances throughout her career, to become a favourite going forward SWEEPING RUSH will need to keep putting together consistant performances.

PP 4
9/1 MIDNITE WARRIOR(KY)
R Simcox ( 114 – 16 – 16 – 13 – 14% )
MAJESTIC WARRIOR x DANZIG x STORM CAT
Bred by smilysmily, racing in super18 stable

MIDNITE WARRIOR is coming off a win last outing, and has put together six wins in her thirteen career races. MIDNITE WARRIOR has made a significant jump in her speed ratings in her last two runs, having posted a 10 speed jump to 100 in her second last race and followed that up with a 98 speed last race. This jump has helped MIDNITE WARRIOR finish among the top with her recent jump to the Grade III class, however this week to come out on top MIDNITE WARRIOR will need to improve again.

PP 5
7/1 DARKEST DAYS(KY)
K Murano ( 33 – 4 – 3 – 5 – 12% )
MORE THAN READY x DEPUTY MINISTER x ALYDAR
Bred by sdmf2

DARKEST DAYS has finished in the moned in eight of her nine career starts and has come out on top in four of these races. DARKEST DAYS has put up career highs two races ago with a 101 speed performance in a run that he finished in second. With this field containing four horses who have peaked at 104 speeds and one seems bound to set a new career high. DARKEST DAYS will be a top runner in this weeks race, not a favourite but not an underdog.

PP 6
16/1 ON THE MANTLE(KY)
C Mecklenburg ( 27 – 1 – 4 – 5 – 4% )
STREET CRY (IRE) x BERNARDINI x DEPUTY MINISTER
Bred by otismyman

ON THE MANTLE has three career wins in her ten lifetime races, including a win in her last outing. ON THE MANTLE has been gradually improving, including a career high 96 speed in her last run, however this is well behind the career highs of the top horses in this field. It will take a miracle for ON THE MANTLE to finish among the top, however with some more time in the open allowances and stakes to ‘season’ before he is ready for the graded class.

PP 7
10/1 CHATAYA(KY)
J Nabbs ( 66 – 9 – 10 – 4 – 14% )
GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x EL PRADO(IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD
Bred by asoiaf

CHATAYA has come out on top in half of his ten lifetime starts, and placed in the money in seven of these races. CHATAYA has also recently taken the jump to the dirt track for her three last races after having started her career on the turf. This jump has led to career high speeds with 100 being the top speed, and having only just made the jump, theres still a chance that CHATAYA’s potential has only just touched the surface. Although not a favourite, if CHATAYA puts up speeds as she has in the last two races she should finish near the front of the pack, and if she can make another jump in speed she could challenge for the win.

PP 8
15/1 MYSTICAL SHAPE(KY)
C Euler ( 19 – 3 – 2 – 3 – 16% )
ARCH x MIESQUE’S SON x SILVER HAWK
Bred by burnin, racing in rrlogans stable

MYSTICAL SHAPE Has only put up two career wins in ten starts, including eight races that she has finished in the money. Her past performances have not been up to par with the graded stakes class, however until her last race she had not been tested on the dirt track. Her last race was an impressivve allowance win with a career high 100 speed in her debut on the dirt track. It is likely she has her to reach her potential, however it may be too much of a jump to hit straight into the Grade II class. A more gradual rise through stakes races may have been more beneficial for MYSTICAL SHAPE, however she is my pick for an upset.

PP 9
5/1 THOUSAND YR EMPIRE(KY)
J Fraser ( 35 – 5 – 5 – 2 – 14% )
EMPIRE MAKER x A.P. INDY x IN REALITY
Bred by theleague

THOUSAND YR EMPIRE has been in the money in all twelve of her lifetime starts, and in three of these races finished on top. Although THOUSAND YR EMPIRE hasn’t won in her last four starts, she has been among the lead and has also been consistently improving. THOUSAND YR EMPIRE will be near the front of the pack on Saturday, and with a strong run she may be able to come out on top. THOUSAND YR EMPIRE is one of the three 5/1 favourites, however she hasn’t quite put up as high speed figures as the other favourites. Much as the other favourites, it is likely that for any win THOUSAND YR EMPIRE will need to put up record speed figures.

PP 10
5/1 CELESTIAL PEACE(JPN)
A Lewis ( 241 – 29 – 34 – 29 – 12% )
ADMIRE MOON x STORM CAT x RAHY
Bred by cyberex

CELESTIAL PEACE has put together eight wins in her lifetime, the most in todays field, through her thirteen lifetime races. CELESTIAL PEACE stumbled out of the gates in her 3yo campaign, winning in her first start but then taking four more races before she posted another victory with a career high speed of 104. Odds makers have set CELESTIAL PEACE as one of the three favourites and one of the four fillies with a high speed of 104. This combined with CELESTIAL PEACE’s trend of increasing speed figures makes her a leading contender for finishing in the lead this race.

PP 11
9/1 FIVE TIMES(KY)
M Lannoo ( 88 – 15 – 11 – 11 – 17% )
TIZNOW x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x PULPIT
Bred by borrow

FIVE TIMES has won in four of her five lifetime races, only stumbling in her first stakes race, but rebounding for a Grade III win and career high 104 speed in her last race. Her career high speed of 104 was a significant jump from her previos high of 92, in order to have a chance this race she will need to match or improve on her last race. FIVE TIMES and SWEEPING RUSH will likely battle it out for the lead throughout the race, and if FIVE TIMES can keep up she stands a good chance on finishing amound the leaders.

PP 12
12/1 RECONNECTED AGAIN(SAF)
T Bates ( 103 – 6 – 11 – 18 – 6% )
A. P. ARROW x MOUNTAIN CAT x AWESOME AGAIN
Bred by fabman2

RECONNECTED AGAIN had a great 2yo campaign, netting three wins and only missing out on the tip three placing once in her seven 2yo races. Unfortunately she has taken a turn for the worst in her 3yo campaign. RECONNECTED AGAIN has been unable to improve on her 2yo performances to keep up with the graded stakes class. Unless RECONNECTED AGAIN can turn her performance around, RECONNECTED AGAIN may need to step back to the open allowance or stakes races until she can improve to become competitive in the graded class. Also as a note to the trainer, it looks like as a 2yo RECONNECTED AGAIN did best after being stretched out, it may be a good time to try RECONNECTED AGAIN at a longer distance.