The German 2000 Guineas

Race: The German 2000 Guineas (3rd running)
Class: Grade II (Gr2)
Distance: One mile (1600m)
Track Info: Firm Turf
Prize Money: $250,000
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old

Hello all and welcome to Germany for The German 2000 Guineas a Gr2 over 1600m. Nearly a full field for this race with a lot of interesting runners. 104 and 109 was the previous 2 winners speed but not sure what to expect from the winner here today. Both the last 2 years winning jockeys have not picked up a ride this year so no one will have that edge advantage. Our favourite will have his work cut out here against this big field but I believe he will come out on top.

Let’s take a close look at the horses.

PP#1 3233 SPECTRUMABILITY(SAF) itracethem Al Glover $99.0
Starts: 1:1-0-0
Money: $5,220
Distance Starts: First Start
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 1

Well this SPECTRUM(IRE)colt had his first start last week in a Tennessee A-8700NW1n over 1700m. Let’s take a look at the positives first, unbeaten, lightly races, and did win well last start. Negatives big step up in class and field size, only had a weeks rest, and the odds may paint the picture. In saying all that he is always a chance once he takes that first step out of the barriers. It would be really impressive if he won this but I’m sure the owners would just be happy to see him run this race well.

PP#2 118983 BLAZING GIMLET(JPN) mtkfever M Spencer $5.0
Starts: 9:2-2-1
Money: $215,670
Distance Starts: 3:0-1-0
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 12695

TANINO GIMLET (JPN)colt who happens to be third best horse for the 2010 crop. To me he looks more suited to sprint races with 3 starts at this distance for a second in stakes company. I know he is 5/1 odds but is out of form lately and at this class he has been well beaten. I suppose every race brings a fresh start to a horse but I’m not so sure that he can win this. A place chance is probably the best way to go with him.

PP#3 96493 NO ME IMPORTA NADA(KY) wrecks U Stelle $9.0
Starts: 7:4-2-1
Money: $91,782
Distance Starts: 1:1-0-0
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 11231

9/1 for this MALIBU MOON colt and despite the great form this is a big step up in class. This one has had all his starts at France and J Stivers has always been on his back. This will be very interesting to see how he will respond to U Stelle on his back and running on a different track. I suppose this one is stepping out of his comfort zone but for a good cause. I have no doubt that U Stelle will give him a great ride and I believe his in with a good chance here today.

PP#4 141608 MESTIZO(IND) pato3 W VonBraun $13.0
Starts: 7:2-4-0
Money: $88,140
Distance Starts: 1:1-0-0
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 22212

Well this once hasn’t finished worse than fourth and has been raced carefully. Has raced well in stakes company but is yet to run in class and I’m not so sure he is ready for this type of race. This looks like the right distance for him but can’t say the same for the class. If you like backing form horses than this is the horse for you and if he can get it right on the day he can bring you nice money. I don’t like his chances here but not the worst.

PP#5 85050 QUEENSLAND SYMBOL(AUS) stormcat55 O Bigger $12.0
Starts: 4:3-0-0
Money: $52,044
Distance Starts: 1:1-0-0
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 1511

STARCRAFT (NZ)colt with a 75% strike rate win but the bookies don’t believe that’s good enough giving him 12/1 odds. So what has he really won a maiden and a couple of allowances, but the thing that is important is that he will struggle at this distance at this class. Only just won his last start and with this field today I don’t believe he will be able to produce that same fighting spirit he produced last start. A chance to finish in the top 5 I believe.

PP#6 70886 DANCE IN THE LIGHT(JPN) astinator8 J Walsh $4.5
Starts: 6:3-2-1
Money: $69,475
Distance Starts: 3:2-0-1
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 12113

The favourite of the race and yet to be unplaced. This DANCE IN THE DARK (JPN) colt had his first big challenge in the G3-Dracula Stakes 1600m he faded to finish third. He did have a nice speed rating of 105 so I believe and so do most that he should be the favourite here today. This will be a big test again but with J Walsh on his back I’m sure that those 9 years of riding experience will help. Like all favourites everyone will try and beat him and his job as the favourite is to win and bring the punters the money. No matter what happens we will find out what kind of horse he is. I think he’s the one to beat.

PP#7 7767 MAJESTIC MAN(JPN) plm X Conover $18.0
Starts: 6:2-1-1
Money: $37,700
Distance Starts: 2:1-0-0
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 73201

Another TANINO GIMLET (JPN) colt but unlike the other this one is 18/1. Has raced in this class as a 2yo where he finished midfield at simular odds but as a 3yo is yet to show signs. I think this will be too hard for him but if he can settle and find a nice position he could run a good race. This will be a real test for him and I think he’ll be lucky to finish in the top 10.

PP#8 50019 STARCRY(IRE) lucky7 E Bernstein $6.0
Starts: 6:2-1-1
Money: $105,630
Distance Starts: 2:1-0-0
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 23164

Well this GALILEO (IRE) colt knows what it takes to run in this class. His last start he made up 6 positions but still was over 8 lenghts from the winner in the G2-The Golden Rose 1600m. Has shown his competative spirit in his last start and I believe this field isn’t as strong as the last one he raced against. With the 6/1 odds he does provide some good value and definately an each-way chance here today.

PP#9 98377 DRIVE BY(KY) super18 T Small $6.0
Starts: 10:3-3-0
Money: $98,595
Distance Starts: 5:2-1-0
Track Starts: 1:1-0-0
Last 5 Starts: 71107

Well this colt has shown he can win stakes races but has also shown that he struggles at graded races. Has won at this track over the distance as a 2yo but that was last year. Has T Small on his back once again which will help but don’t think that will be enough to produce a win here. A each-way chance for him here.

PP#10 7292 LEGAL STRIKE(GB) proctor B Conover $21.0
Starts: 10:3-0-1
Money: $57,179
Distance Starts: 3:1-0-1
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 711s4

This one has improved since he was picked up in November last year by proctor. Did finish fourth his last start in an open allowance after a 3 month spell. Going by his last start it looks like he will enjoy the extra ground that is provided here and I would expect a good run from him. This is a big step up in class for him and hard to know how he’ll handle it. He can do 2 things, one is prick his ears and rise to the occasion, and the other is to go back in his shell and do nothing. I think he will be the turtle and find this beyond him.

PP#11 11753 GRAYONE(AUS) graywolf6 A Suborics $11.0
Starts: 19:4-1-2
Money: $90,561
Distance Starts: 5:2-1-0
Track Starts: 1:0-0-0
Last 5 Starts: 10306

Is this horse really 3yo? The reason I say that is because he has nearly had 20 starts. Has raced in some big races with no results and I believe the bookies are kind to this one. In my view he is a 50/1 shot and i believe he needs a good rest or he will soon find himself injured. Is up and down in form but this will be too hard for him.

PP#12 17438 MAYFAIR(KY) bestobene4 B Floyd $10.0
Starts: 9:5-3-1
Money: $159,794
Distance Starts: First Start
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 12111

This MORE THAN READY colt is well bred and that shows in his form I believe. This one is yet to be unplaced but also yet to run further than 1500m. Has placed at this class as a 2yo and with the way he won his last start, it shows that he is ready for more ground. I think this one is on the improve and could be a surprise winner, but I fancy him more for a place chance.

PP#13 95449 MR. IVOR(FR) daniel A Shove $8.0
Starts: 5:2-1-1
Money: $41,530
Distance Starts: 3:1-1-1
Track Starts: First Start
Last 5 Starts: 11237

Finally we come to our last runner. Well this one is lightly raced and is stepping up in class. I think we need to forget his last start as it wasn’t his best, but the start before in the St-Pleasant Neck Turf Mile was a good run for him. I caught up with his owner/trainer daniel and asked him what he thought about this one? This is what he said ” He is one of my best looking 3yo and a bit unexplored! I want to try him a bit longer later on as well, but believe he is probably best at mile”. He did also mentioned that the wide barrier won’t help the horses foward running style. I wouldn’t count this one out could easily surprise.

My tips:
PP#6 70886 DANCE IN THE LIGHT(JPN)
PP#12 17438 MAYFAIR(KY)
PP#13 95449 MR. IVOR(FR)

Well there we have it good luck to all involved in this game and race.