Chicago Derby
Chicago Derby
Grade III
A mile and one eighth
Fast Dirt
$500,000
All horses, 3 years old
Welcome to Illinois on this sunny and brisk Saturday for the running of the Chicago Derby where we have a full field of 3 y/o’s taking the gate this afternoon. At first glance race appears to be top heavy with two of the top ten 3 y/o derby contenders in this field. Surprisingly, this race does offer some value for the betting public which would indicate there’s money to be made here. Let’s take a closer look at this field and see if we can’t capitalize on a potentially large ROI this contest may offer:
(IMPORTANT: For those of you coming out to the track to watch this race live, please be advised all .38 specials must be checked at the door. No exceptions!)
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY ODDS RANKED EARNINGS
(Last 3)
1) CONFIDENTLY WRONG(AUS) torrential T Balwin 5/1 10 $443,740
102 – 1st / 98 – 6th / 96 – 2nd
(ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x FORTY NINER x NUREYEV) Bred by desperado (20%)
Great looking multiple GS winning colt is looking for back-to-back G3 wins in his last prep for the derby. This versatile brown colt which has shown steady improvement can run on or off the pace and appears to be peaking at the right time. This serious derby contender is a major factor here and bit of an overlay!
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2) ALL DIGITAL(JPN) kjoseph R Logan 5/1 69 $354,295
104 – 3rd / 93 – 4th / 97 – 1st
(AGNES DIGITAL x MACHIAVELLIAN x BLUSHING FLAME) Bred by kjoseph (11%)
This heavily raced colt has the highest lifetime SP of this field posting a 104 LTO in the G3 Rebel Yel where he couldn’t hold the lead and finished 3rd. Looks to be on or just off the pace and will be trying 9f for the first time. Interesting brown colt with only a listed stakes victory under his belt but has run respectably in GS company as 3 y/o. May need to duplicate his career best effort LTO to have shot here. Odds maker says he’s capable of doing so but I will look elsewhere for more value.
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3) ALTAFORTE(KY) catullus B Johnson 17/1 414 $75,818
97 – 1st / 83 – 4th / 82 – 3rd
(AWESOME AGAIN x KINGMAMBO x SADLER’S WELLS) Bred by catullus (14%)
Lovely bred brown colt is another midpack runner here looking to take huge step forward never having run at stakes level. Pedigree would suggest he should get the distance but not against these at this level, at least not yet anyway. Look elsewhere.
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4) CORIOLIS(KY) grtnotion T Smaron 67/1 709 $29,706
82 – 1st / 75 – 1st / 70 – 5th
(CURLIN x SPINNING WORLD x VICTORY GALLOP) Bred by grtnotion (12%)
This lightly race chestnut colt appears to be lone speed which is always dangerous.
However, looking to take a quantum leap here at GS level which is out of reach at this early stage of his career. Should be the rabbit in this race but for how long is the question as dogs and birds etc.. will be looking to run him down. Not enough looking elsewhere.
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5) EXTREME PRESSURE(KY) snowman D McCants 6/1 168 $195,780
93 – 1st / 98 – 4th / 98 – 3rd
(LEMON DROP KID x FOREST WILDCAT x A.P. INDY) Bred by snowman (10%)
This nice looking brown colt has a GP and listed stakes win to his credit but both are at 6f.
Walk in the park victory LTO in an ALW race routing for the first time but against suspect field.
Midpack runner appears capable but unproven at this distance against GS company. May hit the board here with top effort but too short a price for my liking.
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6) TRAGIC ROCK(KY) deeprock8 U Turner 25/1 197 $76,176
92 – 7th / 92 – 2nd / 81- 1st
(THUNDER GULCH x AMERICA’S STORM x CAPE STORM) Bred by deeprock8 (3%)
This chestnut colt making his 6th start of his 3 y/o campaign already appears to be way in over his head here. Lone stakes win came three back in a 6f listed. Not sure how much this midpack runner has left in the tank here let alone facing these. Although he has put up decent SP’s routing, class and distance are major issues here. Look elsewhere.
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7) FREE AS A BIRD(KY) urso B Larsen 14/1 474 $68,599
94 – 1st / 88 – 2 / 89 – 1st
(BIRDSTONE x DEEP IMPACT x SEEKING THE GOLD) Bred by whereizzy (9%)
Very nice looking brown colt showed well LTO going 9.5f with convincing ALW win. This colt shows nice route potential laying back however untested at stakes level and may need a run or two before having his picture taken. However, future looks bright for this bird who does have outside chance to hit the board here with a monster run.
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8) HARD BARK(KY) quagmire N Bonus 12/1 199 $56,040
97 – 3rd / 96 – 1st / 89 – 1st
(UNBRIDLED’S SONG x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x DANEHILL) Bred by quagmire (15%)
This very nice looking colt has improved significantly as a 3 y/o. Has won 2 of his last 3 including a 3rd place finish in a G3 on a sloppy track which was his stakes debut. Another one that sits well off the pace and will look to pounce down the stretch. This light grey colt is oozing class and appears capable and ready to take that next step. Dangerous at a lofty price!
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9) STATE OF RAGE(GER) lenny16 S Robertson 18/1 304 $47,960
92 – 3rd / 90 – 1st / 87 – 3rd
(MONSUN(GER) x MONTJEU (IRE) x CARSON CITY) Bred by lenny16 (22%)
Lightly raced brown colt is coming off a 3rd place finish in a listed stakes which was his stakes debut as a 3 y/o. This closer type has progressed nicely and should relish the 9f. Expect further improvement and best effort out of this promising colt in this 2nd start off layoff but not sure it will be enough to overtake the top two in here. Like him to hit the board at a price in his GS debut.
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10) DYNAMIC JEDI(KY) greendrake D Hester 12/1 517 $37,048
94 – 2nd / 90 – 1st / 89 – 3rd
(STREET SENSE x RUBIANO x STORM CAT) Bred by greendrake (8%)
Light grey colt is a midpack runner coming off a 2nd place finish LTO in his 1st stakes (listed).
ITM 4 out of 5 but facing much tougher here and would need a behemoth effort to hit the board against these at this distance. Look elsewhere.
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11) JUMPER LEADS(PA) broohar2 M Reveiz 9/1 174 $101,016
99 – 7th / 91 – 2nd / 89 – 1st
(JUMP START x ZABEEL(NZ) x RAHY) Bred by broohar2 (13%)
This heavily raced chestnut colt is coming off his best run SP wise LTO in a G3 where he finished 7th. Has hit the board once in five stakes trys. Midpack runner has shown improvement as a 3 y/o and will be stretching out to 9f for first time but class and distance an issue here. Outside chance of hitting the board. Curious to see what this chestnut colt can do in a turf sprint which may be his niche.
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12) FIFTY TWO PICKUP(KY) super15 P Munoz 9/2 3 $659,268
100 – 2nd / 100 – 3rd / 97 – 1st
(STREET CRY (IRE) x STORM CAT x DANZIG) Bred by super15 (15%)
Fantastic looking GI winning colt has hit the board in his last two GS runs and is looking to get into the win column in his last prep for the derby. Only runner in this race with multiple 100 speed figures. This brown closer type which is cutting back a half a panel from LTO has also shown steady improvement and peaking at the right time. Will undoubtedly be charging late at a decent price. Extremely dangerous both here and on that 1st Saturday in May!
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13) SECRET TREAT TED(KY) highstable H Zoon 13/1 345 $102,088
96 – 2nd / 84 – 6th / 92 – 4th
(HARLINGTON x THEATRICAL(IRE) x SECRETARIAT) Bred by highstable (10%)
This brown colt looks to be nice a ALW level horse (on dirt) but has not fared well in his three previous stakes trys. Looks to sit just off the pace however appears outclassed against many of these. Interesting that this colt out of a Theatrical mare is still untested on turf which may be his furture.
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14) RUFF RIDERS(KY) billzpaid2 K Johnston 15/1 453 $61,275
90 – 1st / 93 – 2nd / 84 – 1st
(CANDY RIDE (ARG) x DYNAFORMER x EMPIRE MAKER) Bred by billzpaid2 (13%)
Lightly raced nice looking brown colt has been no worse than 2nd in his 4 career starts but making his stakes debut here which is a tall order. This colt generally looks to sit off the pace and although is cutting back a bit distance may be an issue against the better caliber of some of these. Two back was no match for HARD BARK at this same distance. Promising colt is a couple of runs away from finding his niche and will look elsewhere for now.
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There isn’t much early speed in this race and likely pace scenario would suggest a mad dash to the finish line. I’m going with (8) HARD BARK as my top dog in this race. Who let the dog out……WHOOF WHOOF! : )
Wagers:
$300 win/place 8
$50 trifecta box 8 / 2 / 12 / 9
Best of luck to all the connections here and here’s hoping they all come back ready to run, particularly the two derby contenders!
Frankster (East Coast Racing)