G.S.R. Derby A Day Of Redemption?

The Sim three-year-old in October is usually a member of a clique.  First are the superstars, the horses who did well as two-year-olds and skyrocketed to stardom at three, so much so that their position in the Breeders Bowl is secure.  Next are the near-misses, and these are the sophomores who misfired on the Triple Crown trail, or were much better juveniles than they had been earlier on the Derby trail, and are looking for redemption.  Lastly are the newcomers.  They were slow to develop at two, or they were bred this year and found their stride late in Derby season, or maybe they’ve been grinding away to the beat of their own drummer, and bloomed in the off-season Derby races.  Regardless, some of the horses who become stars at four were late bloomers at three.

Here’s to them, and here they are, in one of the final Grade I races for the Sim sophomore class, the $500,000 GSR Derby, run over the dirt oval of Texas at a mile-and-a-half.  These colts—and two talented fillies—have butted heads with the best of the three-year-old division, in a very contentious season.  Now, these horses look to make it on their own.  In division ranking order, the field:

One Bold Rush [Strike The Gold x Fappiano] comes into this Grade I event as the top-ranked horse in the field, #8 in the three-year-old division.  The respect is well-deserved, with this colt on a real tear, since mid-April…er, relatively speaking; stakes wins in Delaware and Mexico were followed by three hard-luck graded defeats.  In Ohio, he was outkicked in the lane by Diamond Head in the Grade II Buckeye Derby.  In New York, the Grade I Eddie Haskell was over when Squal Me Halo moved to the lead on the turn and One Bold Rush lacked one late.  And two weeks later, in the Grade I Travelers, a loose-on-the-lead Macho Niner had the race in hand all alone on the backstretch, despite the beginnings of a late move in the stretch.  Trainer sdmforlife had hopes for the fall in the Grade I LA Derby, but he started out stalking and ended up moonwalking back through the field to ninth.  Still, despite the current inability to break through at the graded level, his figs for his last five races are all 100+.  He never wants to be far from the pace, and his sire won at a mile-and-a-half previously.  And, as an added bonus, he’s a perfect two-for-two at 12 furlongs.  He’s extremely close to breaking through at a higher level, and the race seems to set up for that.

Mt. Jagged [A.P. Indy x Sadler’s Wells] has the pedigree of a mile-and-a-half horse, and the ranking of one, too.  As #15 in the “long” division of three-year-olds would suggest, this devestate trainee has achieved success going long, particularly since leaving grass racing behind this spring.  He’s four-for-five since his last try on grass, including three stakes wins at a mile-and-three-eighths and a mile-and-a-half.  The long defeat in that period was a much-too-late closing kick fourth in the Eddie Haskell, which nonetheless came up a career-best fig of 107.  All his numbers are competitive with the top members of the field, in fact, and his strong late drive is an asset in this marathon.  A win at Athens last out on a good track gives him momentum, and he appears ready for another shot at the big time.

Mockingbird [Atticus-N. Dance, by Kingmambo] is the #3 turf marathoner for three-year-old fillies, and #24 for dirt filly marathoners, so her presence here instead of, say, a prep race for the upcoming Breeders Bowl Turf Distaff is a tad curious.  A Grade I winner on grass (in the AJC Oaks), her one try on dirt resulted in a belated fifth in last fall’s Grade I Fricassee Stakes.  On grass, she’s truly excelled, winning two stakes and hitting the board in six graded races, and most of those races were long-distance epics in which she’s come from well off the pace.  Trainer alluvial might very well be prepping for a Breeders Bowl race here, but she’s on two separate but equally difficult paths with a placement here: she’s only raced on dirt once before, and has never faced the boys.  Her late-running style is adaptable to this race, but her numbers, even on the grass, have never cracked the century mark.  Still eligible for a NW3X allowance, she’s going to need a major boost from the surface switch to be a player.

Xtremely Awesome [Awesome Again x Kris S.] is the other filly in the field of fourteen, and she too is a highly ranked filly (#27 in the “long” division) with limited experience battling the boys.  She’s faced them twice, and fortunately for her, she’s managed to win both efforts (a maiden win and an open allowance) from off the pace.  The ejdstable trainee won three of her last four, with the only loss versus the top fillies in the Grade I Birmingham two back, and she rose above 100 for the first time in her figures with her last, a win in an Ohio stakes where she was close to the pace in a short field.  She did win at a mile-and-a-half in Italy, and likes to be in mid-pack before running late, but her lack of success against graded company (zero-for-four, with just that Birmingham third) and the résumé and abilities of her male counterparts in this race hang over her abilities like a dark cloud.

Cycle Like Bailey [Broad Brush-Degrella’s Wagons, by Sadler’s Wells] is a laq trainee who broke his maiden February 26, and has been on the fast track in allowance company ever since.  A two-time stakes winner, he’s struggled when trying graded foes but has really rocked it when going 11 furlongs, winning two of three tries.  The extra furlong shouldn’t matter to his late run, and he’s prepped for this on grass in the Grade II Early Months.  While he finished tenth, and has only managed to pick up a check once in his last three starts, one should feel safe tossing those efforts here, as one was on the lawn, and the other two were against older horses.  Here, it’s straight three-year-olds, and he should feel more at home against this level of competition.  His figs aren’t quite as impressive, but his affinity for the added ground should help his development along.

Hattori Hanzo [Fusaichi Pegasus-Kitty Katz, by Storm Cat] has had quite the busy campaign.  Since breaking through as a juvenile with a 99 in a stakes race, his stock has risen to the point where he was considered a strong Bluegrass Derby contender this spring.  The first half of the year started out very strong, with a wire-to-wire win in the Grade II Arkansas Juvenile leading the way on his credentials.  With a second in the Grade II Wooden Indian, a weakened-if-respectable fifth in the Bluegrass Derby, and a mild fourth in the Middle Jewel Stakes, his future seemed very bright.  The second half, though, has seen him tail off just a bit.  He led both the Flat Land Derby and the Swamps Stakes before fading late in both, and in two recent sprint stakes he never seemed engaged; he was a rank twelfth in the Bluegrass Cup Sprint and was a mild third in a Grade II two back.  Now he returns to the classic distances on the late-season Derby circuit, and his figs make him a top choice.  He should be in the mix on the front end, but exactly how involved he’ll be should determine his best chances.  Trainer capeside is surely looking for a jump start to reignite his interest; the spot seems fine enough, but the rest will be up to the colt.

Affair Of The Tiger(IRE) [Black Tie Affair(IRE)-Tiger Theater(IRE), by Theatrical] has only finished out of the money once for delta2tigr, and has finally found a home on the marathon circuit.  A player on the lead, usually, he wired a field of older horses in Mississippi two back going 11 panels with a career-best fig of 104, and seemed perfectly comfortable taking them out early.  He did feel out of his element last out on a good track going two miles in Ohio, but that experience could prove vital in terms of information.  His previous try at a graded level, in the Gary Asher, proved insufficient for him, finishing sixth, but that was at a mile-and-a-sixteenth, and before he found his mojo going long on the lead.  He’ll influence the pace, but can he hang with a Grade I field?  We’ll find out more here.

Grand Tycoon [Grand Slam x Easy Goer] is one of those late-developing threats that prove formidable on the late-year derby circuit, and he’s got the numbers to back him up.  Despite two early stakes wins at a mile-and-three-sixteenths, this representative of rbaze3 began his climb in divisional status with a mild third in the Grade II Captain Hook.  After an eighth in the Princess Cup, he won his only graded race in the Grade III Hoover Handicap from off the pace, and since then, while the wins haven’t necessarily come, his results have been solid in the big events: a fast closing fourth in the It’s My Birthday And I’ll Cry If I Want To, a troubled third in the Travelers on an off-track he may not have liked, and a sixth in the LA Derby versus a tough field and sharp fractions.  His speed figures are consistently good, and this field lacks the superstars from earlier in the year to make things more challenging.  The added distance is suspect for him, but he doesn’t like to be too far from the action, which should suit him just fine; a valid threat.

Load The Cannons [War Emblem x Honor Grades], for winnaquid,  has finished in the money seven of eight starts since being claimed for $50,000 on May 7, and his career has risen to a whole new level in the last five months, which is roughly about the time he started longer than sprint distances.  He closed for second in his stakes debut at 13 furlongs two back, then came back to take a two-mile marathon in Ohio last out, over a good track.  He turns back here, which shouldn’t affect his preferred stretch run, but will need to step up a notch, as his numbers have yet to broach 100.  Still, he did break his maiden on this track last year, and should be taken seriously when the closers begin their assault late.

Sinanju [Rahy x Nijinsky II] is lightly raced here (winning four of nine starts), but he burst on the scene rather dramatically, as a 17-1 shot coming up just short in Ontario’s Grade II Clerk Of Scales, beaten a half-length and finishing third.  He’s won four of his last five, the Grade II being the holdout, and has closed from Oklahoma City in each start to get that way.  He was an easy 3-5 winner at this distance two back, and tore a hole in the stretch to win a two-mile stakes versus older in Vermont last month; trainer frosty has a potential future star on his hands, pending that big breakthrough win at a higher level; the lack of seasoning in the graded spotlight versus some horses who’ve spent their summers going heads-up against some of the best sophomores around doesn’t inspire a whole lotta confidence in this spot, but of course, folks were likely saying that about him around the time of the Clerk of Scales.  There’s a few good deep threats here who are more experienced at the hunt, but there’s a lot of potential in this well-bred colt.

Vicious Circle [Wild Again x El Gran Senor], representing zwango1, has spent the first half of the year evolving into a pretty good colt on the Triple Crown path, not unlike Hattori Hanzo, but the last half of the year has seen some trying times.  A three-time stakes winner early this year, he has come up against some of the best of his crop while looking into a Bluegrass Derby run early on.  He was fourth in a pair of graded races, then came back to wire the field in two long-distance stakes events.  From that point, in June, however, he’s been struggling a bit, fading from early pace influence in each of his last four starts.  He’s most successful when he’s on the lead, but hasn’t been able to maintain the lead lately, even in his last two at allowance level.  Now, going back to a distance at which he’s been successful, it’s back to the grind.  He shouldn’t be alone on the lead, but competing in a Grade I versus some established quality talents is an extra burden with which he has to try and snap out of his rut.

State Of The Union [General Meeting-Gulchess, by Thunder Gulch] is a really late-developing horse for darylucla2, who’s going about things in a progressive manner.  After winning three times at sprint distances, he branched out to classic distances this summer, and come away from that change of approach a better horse for the effort, having a win and three seconds in four starts over a mile since July 30.  The lone win in that time was a mile-and-a-half allowance; the last two were a pair of seconds in stakes races at 11 furlongs.  The added distance is a blessing, and his recent upward trend in speed figures an extra bonus that ranks competitively in the field.  Additionally, he’ll be placed properly just a couple of lengths from the lead, which should leave enough in reserve for a kick.  He seems to be coming around at the right time, which should bode well for his prospects going long against the best older horses later on in his career; a live long shot.

Brilliant [Fantastic Light-Unbridled State, by Sadler’s Wells] hasn’t quite lived up to his name for trainer vsmdinc, but he has at least shown some above-average skills in his sophomore season.  As a juvenile, he was Grade III-placed on the grass, and he continued that fortune early this year, with a stakes win at a mile-and-three-sixteenths on the lawn.  But he came to life off the lawn as well, with two wins on dirt, including a stakes score and a restricted allowance win on the Bluegrass Derby undercard.  Additionally, in two tries at today’s distance, he’s come up on the losing end of a pair of short decisions, losing a nose and a half-length.  His form has tailed off in the last couple of starts, although his speed figs are still reasonable in this field, yet he should be sitting chilly close to the front end.  Whether he can get the distance without falling as tantalizingly short as he has remains to be seen, but he’ll need a bit of a lift from his immediate form to improve his outlook.

Royal Forty Indy [Royal Academy-Forty Indy, by A.P. Indy] still qualifies for a NW2X allowance race, but trainer julie has her horse prepped for a decent shot here, propelled here by virtue of a pair of allowance wins, one (restricted, where he broke his maiden) at this distance, the other (open) at a mile-and-three-eighths.  His numbers are in the low range of competitive with some of these at their best, but he does possess a pretty strong middle move that usually begins with about a half-mile left to run that should get the ball rolling on the late rallies.   There’s not a lot of high-level stakes seasoning, as he makes his graded debut here, but getting the distance, and getting it better than the others, sometimes is more important.  There are other deep threats to be had, but this one should be moving a little earlier than some of the others, and it could be a matter of who can outkick whom.

My selections:

1. Grand Tycoon
2. Hattori Hanzo
3. One Bold Rush
4. Sinanju
5. Mt. Jagged

Good luck, and happy racing!