Sitting Duck for Sitting Duck?
(1) SOVARSIS (SAf) [7/1]
9 y/o horse by Personal Hope x Arctic Tern x Sovereign Dancer
(36) 8 – 5 – 4 ($80 216)
Universal Racing Club Inc. (9.9%-36.7%), R. Kirby (11.7%-37%)
The old man in the field has had three starts with his current stable, all decent enough local bred efforts on the dirt. He returns to the grass now where he has posted all of his 8 career victories. Aside from a disappointing spell with his previous stable, Sovarsis has held his form quite well considering his age and there is every chance that he will make his presence felt here again.
(2) DESERT COUNT (SAf) [6/1]
5 y/o horse by Count Dubois (GB) x
(21) 3 – 4 –3 ($50 567)
The SAF Connection (14.2%-42.2%), T. Loesch (26.3%-60%)
Desert Count failed dismally in open N2x company last time off a four month break and has had a further four months off the track. He’s unlikely to be ready for this, but his form over this type of trip at local-bred level throws him into the mix.
(3) SITTING DUCK (SAf) [6/5]
5 y/o horse by Caesour x Assayer x Luthier (Fr)
(22) 5 – 6 – 3 ($107 753)
Haddock Stables (15.5%-42.4%), E. Eberhard (17.1%-49%)
Sitting Duck looks a very useful sort and it’s surprising that he still qualifies for N2x level. He posted triple digit speed figures five times during 2010 and would appear to be very hard to beat in his first effort in the local bred division. He has no problem with the trip, has a very good rider aboard and arrives here off a five week break. Everything looks set for a good run.
(4) BROKEN WIND (Phi) [99/1]
4 y/o colt by Tempestuous Wind x Northern Dancer x Full Pocket
(15) 1 – 0 –2 ($14 536)
The Squirrel Empire (14.4%-39.6%), T. Grady (6.9%-27%)
99/1 in a seven horse field says it all. Broken Wind looks completely out of his depth here. If this was a dirt sprint, he’d have some sort of chance.
(5) NANIA (SAf) [5/1]
5 y/o horse by Western Winter x Pas De Quoi (SAf) x Northfields
(23) 5 – 5 –6 ($123 885)
The SAF Connection (14.2%-42.2%), J. Donato (8.0%-28%)
Nania is a very useful sort and likely needed his last start in open allowance company. Back at local bred level, he is likely to be competitive.
(6) JET GIANT (SAf) [7/2]
4 y/o colt by Jet Master (SAf) x Galileo (Ire) x Giant’s Causeway (Ire)
(15) 3 – 3 –3 ($135 255)
The SAF Connection (14.2%-42.2%), M. Lingard (10.2%-34%)
Jet Giant is much better than his last run suggests and I’m hoping that he will return to the form that saw him finish second in stakes company five months ago. This is his first attempt in local bred company and. Like his stable companions, he should be competitive.
(7) GREENDOR (SAf) [5/1]
5 y/o horse by Toreador (Ire) x Leo Castelli x Green Dancer
(22) 5 – 0 –8 ($70 854)
The SAF Connection (14.2%-42.2%), J. Smith (12.6%-39%)
Greendor is another that returns off a break following a disappointing allowance level return from a rest. He is likely to need the run but could also be competitive at this level over this trip at his best.
Summary:
Aside from the longshot, this looks a great contest. All four of mine have the ability to be competitive but they have various questions to answer, mostly involving rests and poor recent starts. I’m hopeful that Jet Giant will have a good season as a four year old but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he beat his stable companions and still only managed third here. Sovarsis is quite capable of a big run but Sitting Duck does appear to stand out as the one to beat.