Will a Frontrunner Win Another Victoria Cup?

This year marks the third running of the Victoria Cup.  This Grade 2 race saw Lambaste win the inaugural running with a speed of 113, wiring the field.  This speed was equaled last year by Prinipe De Viana, who also wired the field.  Both winners won by ¼ length or less, establishing a history of very close races. 

The Victoria Cup is open to horses age 4 and older and will be run on the turf going distance of 10 furlongs.   The stage is set…will we see another horse wire the field or will someone else be able to run the pace setters down???  The contenders:

1   Witherspoon   15-1

In November, Witherspoon recorded his career best speed of 110 in the Los Angeles Derby (10f, G3) where he ran 5^th throughout the race and finished in the same spot.   After a two month break, Witherspoon raced in an 8.5f allowance race, finishing a well back third as the 3-2 second choice and with a speed of 93.  This colt is winless in five tries with the graded company and he may not have been sharp in his 2011 debut, but will need to put in his best to pull off the upset with this bunch.

2   Moskovskaya   6-1

A winner by a mere head in the December running of the Pennsylvania Handicap (G2, 9.5f, speed 110), Moskovskaya did not fare as well in the Mr. Met Cap.  He finished a fare forth and didn’t seem too keen to the yielding track.  Horse usually puts in a good effort and if he can get his speed 110 or higher, I think he will have a good chance to pick up his forth graded win.

3  Callheadsortails    5-1

Callheadsortails has been showing good form lately with an average speed of just under 109 over the last five starts.  He has one win in three graded starts, taking the South Florida Mile this past April.  Callheadsortails is very capable of hitting speeds in excess of 110 and will be coming from the rear of the field.  Could be tougher than he looks on paper.

4   Portman’s Perfect  5-1

Portman’s Perfect is looking to right a wrong in this race.  He ran in the Victoria Cup last year, just after winning the Alyrap Roar Challenge, and lost in a photo finish by a head.  This race kicked off a losing streak for Portman which is now up to 10 consecutive races.  He has been on the board several times during this stint, and in November, was all over the track in the Jolly Summer Cup (G1, 10f), racing fifth early on, taking over the lead coming off the turn and wondering back to finish third. That was last November and he went on sabbatical until February where he tried an allowance race, coming up short as the 3-5 favorite with a speed of 101.  Nice horse but this looks to be tough spot to end drought. 

5   Mount Samson    7-2

Since the beginning of 2010, Mount Samson has been on a very nice roll.    In 13 races, he has a record of 7-2-1 and this includes 5 graded victories.  He’s won his last two starts, Mr. Met Cap and King Kong Cup, both G1 and 10 furlongs with speeds of 105 (on yielding surface) and 115.  Since last May, he’s only had one race where he did not finish 1^st nor 2^nd and that was in the Breeders’ Bowl Mile.  He’s facing a good field here and fits in well. 

6   Mind Motion   5-1

In the early part of 2010, Mind Motion won  a pair of graded races, the Strange Brew Turf and the Woody Ford.  In both of these starts, he was a longshot, going off at odds of 38-1 and 25-1.  He has earned the respect of gamblers, as he has not gone off at these odds since winning these two races.   Since these victories, Mind hasn’t returned to the winner’s circle.  His speeds have been good, averaging 108 over his last four outings.   He has to work hard to pick up another win.

 7   The Oil Rules All    10-1      

This 6 year old has been in many graded races and has 4 victories to his credit.   In April, 2009, The Oil Rules All won the Queen’s Spring Cup and then hit a long gap before his next graded win in the Harry Potter last November.  The common factor is that both of these races were on a good track.  The Oil Rules All has speeds below the 100 level in his last two starts and age concerns may be starting to come to life.

8.  Outer Haven   5-1

Outer Haven has the opportunity to be the pace setter in this race and that is a good thing.  In the two times this stake race has run, the pace setter has won the race.  His last race, the Red Light Cup, was a huge disappointment as Outer never got close to the lead and lost ground throughout the race.   Speeds in the last five starts average a twinge below 105 but still good enough to be competitive.

9.  Sandor    6-1

Sandor’s speeds have been top notch ranging from 109 to 114 in his last three outings.  In 6 graded races, he has a win (in the Big Red Stakes during August) and a second in the King Kong Cup in December.  Sandor has shown improvement at the graded level and offers some value to boot.   Worth considering.

A competitive field where I am going with Callheadsortails as I like his late kick and I don’t believe there is any strong front speed to go the distance this time.

Mount Samson has an impressive record and should get a good trip with Evans (23% win) in the saddle.  He’s also the topped rank horse in these conditions on the sim-circuit.

Sandor is an up and coming colt and I expect that he will put in an excellent race.