It’s a party in New Orleans!

By ITCH

None of the Top Five are in New Orleans, but it’s Mardi Gras and we’re having a party, anyway.

What the $500,000 Grade II Saints Handicap may lack in star power it more than makes up for with a consistent, powerful field from top to bottom. This race does feature the No. 6 and 7 horses in the division, and was oversubscribed, with no fewer than 18 names placed in the entry box. Going nine furlongs on the main track, this race shapes up as a wide-open affair. Were it being broadcast on ESPN, Hank Goldberg might say it’s the best betting race of the season.

In Rocky IV, Ivan Drago was best known for beating Apollo Creed to death in an exhibition boxing match. In the Saints Handicap, Galileo is hoping DRAGO D’ORO will be best known for bringing another graded stakes triumph to Blazing Saddles with his powerful late kick. In only 14 career races, this light gray 4yo son of Medaglia D’Oro has risen to No. 6 in the dirt route division for older horses. As stated, this horse has a powerful late run. His running style is to take back and come flying at the end. That running style has parlayed into an ultra-impressive racing record. This horse is 11-14 lifetime in the exacta, with earnings of more than $1.8 million. With $500,000 at stake in the All Saints, Drago D’Oro could move over the lofty $2 million mark on Saturday with a win. Aiding his chance is the fact that the track has come up good. This horse is 2-2 lifetime on off tracks, and shows an easy win on a good track. The only poor races in this horse’s recent racing history are at 10 furlongs. He’s playing his game at nine furlongs on Saturday. There’s no reason to expect Drago D’Oro to throw anything but a powerful punch here.

It is only by a fraction of a stakes point that the Super Stables miss out on being the top-ranked horse in the All Saints. Drago D’Oro has 312.99999 stakes points, while INAUGURATION has 312.80827. So, there’s a score to be settled on Saturday and these horses are quite likely to separate themselves in the rankings. Who will end up on top? Drago D’Oro or Inauguration? There are plenty of points at stake in this Grade 2, but it’s hardly a two-horse race. In a 14-horse field, the lowest price is 7-1, and the longest is 14-1. This is the very definition of a wide-open race. Can the Supers take office with Inauguration? The morning line oddsmaker is not impressed with this 4yo brown son of Mr. Greeley. Despite having earned almost $1.7 million in 21 career starts, Inauguration is dissed at 11-1 on the odds board. Why the long price? Inauguration has missed the exacta in five of his last six. He’s only won one race in the last six months, but that win plays prominently in handicapping this horse for the All Saints. Three back, Inauguration flew home to win the Grade 2 Lewis and Clark going nine furlongs. He did it with a prime 115 speed figure. So, the horse is playing his game on Saturday. This is only his second start of the year and it looks like Super may have this horse ready to run a big one.

One of our favorite trainers in the Sim is Ceclaim, operator of the Royal Belgian Kempen Farm, a 52-stable outfit. This is a trainer who knows how to play the game, and one of the best benefits of BTB reporting is to observe how a successful trainer like Ceclaim manages his good horses. With FLESH AND BLOOD, a brown 4yo son of Danehill Dancer, the lesson to observe is patience. Ceclaim is not in a hurry with this horse, despite the fact that he was a verified win machine as a 3yo. He won six of eight starts last year. Notice that. He only started eight times. With only 14 starts under his belt, there should be a ton of horse ready to improve on his current No. 30 ranking in the division. If he can improve, we have a major player on the handicap division scene. This is only Flesh and Blood’s second race since November. He prepped for this with an easy score last out in a non-graded stakes with only five horses in it. Flesh and Blood toyed with that field, clear by three lengths at the wire with a 113 speed figure. One can only assume that another jump forward is in the cards for this colt. With $455,000 in the bank, it looks promising for Flesh and Blood to clear the half-million mark in smashing style on Saturday.

Speaking of having patience with horses, how about My Man Otis and MTK Mark’s horse, WHERE DO I SIGN. This front-running chestnut son of Giant’s Causeway has started only 13 times as a 5yo. He’s won six of those starts and compiled earnings of $392,000. Unlike the top three, Where Do I Sign goes right to the front. Can he last? Unfortunately, this horse has faded all the way back to sixth in his last two races. After winning the Grade 3 Stubborn Pheasant last fall in dominating fashion, Where Do I Sign ran out of gas in the Grade I Braulio Baeza and the Grade I Glenn Handicap. He drops down to a Grade 2 here, but that’s not going to mean much in terms of a class drop because this race has come up very strong from top to bottom. There are many, many Grade I races out there which would be easier spots than this Grade 2. The horse caught a tough break at the post position draw and will start widest of all at No. 14. To win, he’ll have to clear the field early and cross over to an uncontested lead. This horse has only one gear, and that’s all out from the beginning. If he’s not out front at the start, you’ll know he’s in trouble. However, if he gets the lead he needs, he is dangerous because he’s 2-2 on an off track. The good going suits this horse, now he needs the pace to favor him.

JUST VENGEANCE is rated the longest shot in the field at 14-1 despite qualifying up here in the No. 5 spot. Can that be right? There are nine horses in this race who qualify below this horse but have a better chance of winning? Not so fast, says Jma and the Dead Meadow Farms, who will fly the DelPenn banner in the All Saints on Saturday. After all, this is the winner of last year’s Grade I New Yorker. This 4yo chestnut son of Jazil took down one of the most coveted prizes in all of Simdom that day, smashing the New Yorker field in frontrunning style. He was third in the Bluegrass Derby last year as well. So, this horse has tons of class, and he’s going to need it in this tough field. Usually when horses are dismissed at long odds in the Sim, it means they’re lacking in the speed figure department, but that’s not the case with this horse. He’s carded successive 110 numbers in his last two, and was a good second last out in the Grade I Glenn Handicap going this distance. He beat Where Do I Sign in that race, and obviously has a better shot here than his odds would indicate.

Here we are on the Louisiana backstretch with a few chatroom friends and Desperado Rob, trainer of BREAK EVEN, a 5yo chestnut son of Afleet Alex. This horse impessed last out with a front-running score in the Grade 2 Spurs Handicap. Even Kingman Mike says: “That’s a sick A-Alex.” His trainer agreed, then let us all in on a secret. “Yes, he has been a huge overachiever,” Rob said. “I even had him in a claimer at one point.” Indeed, Break Even could have been claimed out of his maiden-breaking win for $75,000. What a claim that would have been. Break Even has gone on to win 10 races total with earnings of $358,000. He’s won two non-graded stakes and been third in a Grade I. But his best score came last out in that Grade 2. It was especially sweet after the horse fell apart last fall in the Grade 3 It’s All Your Fault. “The last race was huge, because he was injured two back,” Despie said. Break Even will make his first-ever start on an off track here Saturday. His trainer is not too concerned about it. “Not really,” Desperado said. “He has been OK on turf and his brother was a graded witnner on the turf, which I think can sometimes mean off track. I am more worried about the speed in the race.” Otis and MTK Mark have a very fast horse on the outside with Where Do I Sign.”Yep, I tried to get Wally to scratch,” Rob joked. That one does not bother Kingman Mike, who predicts “Rob’s hoss is gonna mow them down.” Break Even’s brother Eurotrash, who earned a Grade B for his 39-race career in which he earned $648,000 is the best horse of eight for Rob’s 18yo Storm Cat mare, DEAR STORM. But, Break Even has a chance to catch that one and would go a long way with a score in the All Saints.

Punter34 and Phantom Pharms will fly the Northwest Racing Circuit banner in the All Saints with the red-hot DIRRTY, who carries a seven-race winning streak. At one point, this 4yo brown son of Gone West was only one for nine lifetime. He had lost six in a row at his first allowance level. A lot of trainers might have decided they had a claimer at that point. Good thing Punter34 did not make any such mistake. Dirrty finally cleared his entry-level allowance condition in his seventh try, and then there was no stopping him. He has not lost since, running up seven wins in a row. Most of that streak was against 3yo only, and Dirrty faced a huge challenge last out when making his graded stakes debut in his first race against older horses. As often stated, it’s a very difficult task indeed when a horse is asked to try two new things in the same race. If I had been writing the BTB preview for the Grade 2 San Valenzuala, I would have cast doubt on this horse’s chances, facing older horses for the first time in his graded stakes debut. That’s about as tough a challenge a Sim trainer can give a horse. That’s why it’s so impressive that Dirrty won that day. He tries to run his streak to eight on Saturday and he’s in another very difficult spot. Also, this horse has not started since Jan. 8, so he might not have come out of that graded score all that great. If he wins the All Saints to make it eight in a row, it would be mega-impressive.

FRENCH CAFE only adds to the high quality of this Grade 2 field. A 4yo brown son of Street Boss (a Street Cry sire), French Cafe is currently enjoying very consistent form for Bond77 Stables, a 12-barn outfit that currently is not affiliated with any residency. With almost 2000 career wins built at a respectable 13.6-percent win rate, this would be a nice addition to any residency in the Sim. This horse would be a better-than-nice addition to any Sim barn, as well. He is getting good respect from the morning line oddsmaker at 9-1, and with good reason. He beat the No. 2 qualifier in this field last out in the Grade 2 Scrub going this distance. The Supers watched with disappointment as Inauguration never could quite catch up with French Cafe. Bond77’s colt was in front of Inauguration all the way, and his burst to catch the frontrunner left Inauguration flat-footed in the lane. Another similar such effort could land French Cafe a big victory in the All Saints, which would move this horse way up in the division standings. He’s got the form and is coming off a very impressive victory.

The morning line oddsmaker is giving good respect to Kevoman’s THE REFORMER as the co-second choice at 8-1. It’s easy to see why as this 5yo brown son of Medicean is in rock solid form. There’s a lot to like about this horse, starting with his impressive career record of 20 for 27 in the exacta. This horse is above all else a producer, and just the kind of Simulated racing animal all trainers would covet. The horse not only is consistent, he’s versatile. The Reformer has been good on both turf and dirt. He’s an impressive 11 for 17 in the exacta on turf, but an even more impressive nine for 10 on the main track. The horse was good on the turf, but really exploded when CoolK stretched him out on the dirt. After racing middle distances on turf, The Reformer really found himself at 10 furlongs on the dirt, popping a 115 his first try. The horse has shown he has what it takes to compete in Grade 3 this distance. After an extremely easy allowance romp as a prep last out, Kevoman tries to take another step forward on the main track as The Reformer ascends to Grade 2. He has tactical speed and should be able to find a nice trip.

Lgbost has the second-longest shot in the field at 13-1 with HEAT EQUALS TIP, a late-running 5yo brown son of Mineshaft. This horse is regally bred, with Secretariat and Northern Dancer on the back end. With a top speed figure of 117 and multiple non-graded stakes wins, Lgbost certainly has gotten a bang for his buck with Heat Equals Tip. Now, whether he can climb another class ladder with this horse remains to be seen. So far, Heat Equals Tip has found his class ceiling at the non-graded level. In four graded tries, he’s been badly in two, and has only a third-place run to show for his efforts. Coupled with recent poor form, that lack of success at this level means this horse does not handicap as well in this spot as several of his opponents. He’ll be taking back and making a run, but he has not won a race in six months and there are other closers in here who look far more likely. Now watch him go.

Just as The Fabulous One must have several bowling balls to suit differing lane conditions, his Fabman Farms support several different residencies, and not just Great Plains. As it happens, his annita27 barn which is home to FAST TRACK JONES will fly the Pastures of Green banner. This 5yo brown son of Smarty Jones is getting major respect from the morning line oddsmaker, checking in as the co-second choice at 8-1 despite qualifying outside of the Top 10. What gives? Why should the No. 11 qualifier be rated so highly? This is a very consistent horse who has proven that he can compete at this distance at the graded level. Like Smarty Jones in the Belmont, Fast Track Jones had the lead at the head of the lane in his two graded tries at nine furlongs. which took place two and three races back. There are not a whole lot of speed horses among the Top 10, so this fast horse with tactical speed should be able to work out a good trip just behind the pacesetters. Fabman will be hoping the horse can make his move and then have enough left to hold off the classy laterunners who are bound to show up.

The second half of the Fabman Farms entry is GETALOADOFF, a 5yo brown son of Hard Spun. This one does not impress the morning line oddsmaker as much as Fast Track Jones. Getaloadoff will go off four points higher on the odds board at 12-1. His speed figs are just a notch below his entrymate’s and that’s the likely reason for the difference, but there’s a lot to like about this horse, as well. Getaloadoff has earned $533,000 in 25 career starts, and is a Grade 3 winner. Last year, he very nearly became a Grade I winner when he just failed to last in the Grade I Toilet Scrubber, run at Fab’s home track of Michigan. The horse runs here in the All Saints off a bit of a freshener. After missing the board in three straight races to cap off his 2010 season, Getaloadoff took a load off and has been rested since racing on Christmas Day. Now, it’s time to take the wrappings off again and see if this horse has what it takes in the All Saints.

Speaking of old-timey Sim trainers who know how to roll a bowling ball, we have none other than Lordpye himself with the penultimate qualifier, INTERROGATORIES. This is a regally-bred 5yo chestnut son of AP Indy, with Kingmambo and El Prado underneath. The Big Oil Conglomerate has left this well intact for the large part, running him only 18 times so far. This is in sharp contrast to message board flame wars of years gone by, in which other players ripped Big Oil for overracing its horses. Has Lordpye changed his approach? All good players adjust quickly to conditions, so it may be that he’s rolling a little differently with his horses these days. With Interrogatories, we have a horse which was bred late in his 3yo year, and started only 3 times in 2009. Then, he went to the track only 11 times as a 4yo, a far lighter racing regimen than what Big Oil horses were used to. Lordpye’s patience was rewarded two back, when Interrogatories showed some class that had been hidden to that point. He was third in the Grade I Glenn Handicap, after never having even won so much as a non-graded stake. But now that he’s a 5yo, it’s back to the old Big Oil Way. He’s started four times already this year, and the old twice-a-month routine came a cropper last out when this horse was a listless eighth in a non-graded stake. While that Grade I effort was nice, we still have a horse who’s never hit the exacta in any stakes race and who may be a little overraced right now.

Finally, we have BLACK SHADOWS, a potent second half of a Super Stables entry. While Simply ……….. SUPER has the No. 7 horse in Inauguration at the top of the qualifying list, they also have an interesting prospect in Black Shadows at the bottom of the list. This 5yo chestnut son of Sadler’s Wells is in razor-sharp form and appears to be on the improve as a 5yo. He carded a lifetime-best speed figure of 112 in running his winning streak to two last out in a non-graded stake this distance. This horse has been badly beaten in both of his career graded attempts, but those were a while ago and he may be a new horse by now. It had been a long time since Black Shadows won a stake race, and he takes a natural step forward off that win last out. It’s a testament to the consistent, top-to-bottom strength of this field that the No. 14 horse looks as good as this one does. He’s hit the exacta in four of his last four, and brings a two-race winning streak. He shows a big closing effort on a good track. It’s a tough spot, for sure, but this horse has more than one handicapping factor in his favor.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!

@