Last Horse Standing

South Africa’s opener this week is a $13.5k starter over two miles on the dirt, for local bred horses. We’ve got a hot favourite, an extreme longshot and the usual question over this type of trip: who will stay?

(1) CHUCOIE (Zim)                                                             [40/1]

4 y/o filly by Eton Lad (GB) x Fayruz (GB) x Tayasu Tsuyoshi (Jpn)

(17) 1 – 3 – 3 ($38 217)

CoMeDy Central (10.7%-35.7%), M. Lingard (10.3%-33%)

40/1 in a four horse field doesn’t say much for this girl’s chances. The fact that I’m riding probably doesn’t help. That said, the last time she won was the last time I was aboard! Honestly though, despite a 2^nd and a 3^rd over long trips, Chucoie doesn’t appear to stay. She was beaten a long way in both those efforts and recorded poor speed figures. It’s hard to see her being a threat here.

(2) MONTE GOES GREEN (SAf)                                    [5/1]

            5 y/o horse by Daylami (Ire) x Grand Lodge (Ire) x Risen Star

            (31) 2 – 5 –5 ($34 054)

            Claim2win Stable (17.1%-51.8%), R. Kirby (11.7%-37%)

This guy has been finishing consistently thereabouts in local bred company, without really threatening to win. Those runs were all over shorter. His few runs over 12 or 13 furlongs weren’t terrible but his 16 furlong effort as a 3 year old was woeful. It’s possibly worth ignoring that run, but I’m inclined to think he doesn’t see out this maximum trip.

(3) SEEKING THE DANCER (SAf)                                [2/1]

            5 y/o horse by Joshua Dancer x Seeking The Gold x Gone West

            (27) 2 – 7 – 5 ($69 189)

            The SAF Connection (14.2%-42.1%), E. Eberhard (17.1%-49%)

Seeking The Dancer continued with his consistent form last time out when finishing 2^nd, more than five lengths ahead of Monte Goes Green. His efforts over marathon trips are a mixed bag. He was a very well beaten third over 13 furlongs on the grass, and over the same distance on a wet dirt track, but put up two useful efforts over 14 furlongs on a fast dirt track and over 12 furlongs on a sloppy dirt track. He’ll probably be lacking a closing effort again, but does have potential to see out the trip to some degree.

(4) GAMES (SAf)                                                                 [1/5]

            7 y/o horse by Var x Exbourne x Gold And Myrrh

            (56) 12 – 11 –8 ($184 785)

            Smokeglack Stables (13.4%-42.5%), T. Loesch (26.3%-60%)

Games is a hot favourite here, and it’s not hard to see why. He has won twice as many races as, and earned more money than, the rest of the field combined. He has broken the 100 speed figure mark 12 times in his career while none of the others has hit 92. However, none of that matters here. At 7 years, he is getting on a bit and his form might be slipping. His first two starts for his current stable have been disappointing and now he tries a distance he hasn’t faced in more than two years. He finished last of five, beaten a long way, when going two miles and faded badly in the last quarter over 12 furlongs. Those two efforts were at a time when he was just starting to hit his peak, so he is another who doesn’t appear to stay. His class may still be enough to give him a shout, but I wouldn’t take 1/5 odds.

Summary:

Seeking The Dancer appears to be the only runner in this lineup with any measure of the stamina it takes to win over two miles. He might just be able to find his way back into the winners’ box for the first time since June 2009. Games should have the class to grab second spot but Monte Goes Green is a danger.