Liberty Tree Challenge

Race : The LIBERTY TREE Challenge – Stakes – $75,000
Track : Queensland (AUS)
Restrictions : Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up
Distance : Seven furlongs on the Turf

A classy field of thirteen mares will go around on a rain affected track on Saturday over the sprint journey of seven furlongs. In an open race the pre post favourites are the devil01 trained NOSTROVIA and MATTER OF CHANCE from the slowhand barn. TWISTED NOODLE and WIKI FORM look the likely leaders with GRAND BEE and REMEMBER SESTRIERE also likely to push forward. I like TWISTED NOODLE the winner at three of her last six starts. Has not started on rain affected tracks but at the odds on offer I think she is a good gamble. The danger is the dublinlad trained SONG OF DUBLIN who has been placed in the top two at eleven of her 15 career starts. Her wet track form is excellent with four wins and a placing from five starts. She should settle just behind the early leaders and get the run of the race.

PP1 – 31223 NOSTROVIA (KY) 5/1

5YO Mare by Dynaformer 25 starts 7-6-5 $274,444 (devil01)

Win Percent 28.0% AveragePze 10,977 SPRating 107

Very consistent Mare with 18 placings from 25 career starts. Was runner up in the Otto Stakes three runs back over seven furlongs and also placed at most recent effort over the mile at Allowance level. Placed all four starts on Off tracks. Will go close in this.

PP2 – 61541 SNAKE OF TALINS (AUS) 26/1

4YO Mare by More Than Ready 12 starts 3-2-1 $64,371 (luna)

Win Percent 25.0% AveragePze 5364 SPRating 101

Lightly raced improving type. Won last start at Marylands in an Allowance race but may struggle in this.

PP3 – 31114 REMEMBER SESTRIERE (KY) 10/1

4YO Mare by Smarty Jones 20 starts 8-4-2 $184,515 (sansebas)

Win Percent 40.0% AveragePze 9225 SPRating 107

Scored three consecutive wins at Allowance level the latest at Wisconsin over six and a half furlongs. Stepped up to Grade Three level at latest start to run a good fourth at South Africa in the Carp Fillies Guineas over the mile trip. Has won her only start on wet track.

PP4 – 25260 FLEETING WELL (JPN) 16/1

6YO Mare by Afleet 38 starts 8-10-3 $309,333 (speedkills)

Win Percent 21.0% AveragePze 8140 SPRating 94

Runner up at Paris three runs back over seven furlongs in an Allowance race on a rain affected track. Last start was disappointing over six furlongs at New Zealand also at Allowance level. The newcomer K Damo takes the mount and will give it every chance. Placed at five of her six starts on wet ground.

PP5 – 02114 GRAND BEE (JPN) 12/1

5YO Mare by Grandera (Ire) 20 starts 6-6-2 $236,021 (bountyhawk)

Win Percent 30% AveragePze 11,801 SPRating 107

Scored second win on the trot in Victoria over seven and a half furlongs at Allowance level two runs back and followed that with an even effort when fourth at Norway in harder LA Gomera Memorial over todays distance. Placed two of three wet track starts.

PP6 – 11232 SONG OF DUBLIN (KY) 9/1

4YO Mare by Unbridled’s Song 15 starts 5-6-1 $416,383 (dublinlad)

Win Percent 33.3% AveragePze 27,758 SPRating 110

Returned an SP of 110 three runs back in South Korea when runner up in the Kiki’s Moon Dancer Stakes over todays distance. Found one better again at latest start in Denmark in a Stakes race over six and a half furlongs. Is the class runner of the race and has won four and placed at only other wet track start.

PP7 – 32521 FLAGS UP (KY) 8/1

5YO Mare by Invasor (Arg) 26 starts 6-5-3 $193,788 (nightracin)

Win Percent 23.0% AveragePze 7453 SPRating 107

Ran a good race in the Grade Three Everclear Stakes at New Zealand over todays distance three runs back. Very impressive winner when long odds on favourite last start at Turkey at Allowance level over six and a half furlongs. Has won in the wet. Not the roughest here.

PP8 – 64450 BEST THERE IS (IRE) 6/1

6YO Mare by King’s Best (Ire) 37 starts 8-8-4 $813,470 (desperado5)

Win Percent 21.6% AveragePze 21,985 SPRating 105

Has not won for quite a while but is always there or thereabout. Ran a super fourth in the Grade One Queen Ascot Stakes at Surrey over the mile three starts back and will appreciate the drop in class here. There is a query about her running well on the soft track. Has a good chance in this.

PP9 – KINGSGATE WORLD (ENG) 20/1

4YO Mare by Kingsgate Native (Ire) 10 starts 3-1-2 $104,238 (bargainer)

Win Percent 30.0% AveragePze 10,423 SPRating 104

Another improving type who won well two runs back at Japan over seven furlongs before a slightly disappointing effort last start.

PP10 – 11223 MATTER OF CHANCE (KY) 5/1

5YO Mare by Hard Spun 25 starts 11-5-5 $412,169 (slowhand)

Win Percent 44.0% AveragePze 16,486 SPRating 105

In great form at the moment with placings at her last five starts all at Stakes level. Runner Up at Tasmania over todays distance three runs back in the Maple Act Stakes and made some ground in the stretch last start when third at Deauville on a slightly off track. Will be given every chance by Queensland’s top jockey C Wyatt. Has won in the wet. Will go close in this.

PP11 – 54425 WIKI FORM (KY) 12/1

5YO Mare by Dynaformer 21 starts 4-5-4 $115,822 (alaqou)

Win Percent 19.0% AveragePze 5515 SPRating NA

Has not won since mile victory in Indonesian Allowance race six starts back. Has been running at longer journeys lately including a last start fifth in the Mrs Claus Cup Restricted race here over nine furlongs.

PP12 – 31214 TWISTED NOODLE (AUS) 9/1

4YO Mare by Redoute’s Choice (Aus) 17 starts 5-4-4 $219,008 (jkj4)

Win Percent 29.4% AveragePze 12882 SPRating 112

The winner at three of her last six starts including an Allowance victory two runs back at Victoria over seven and a half furlongs leading all the way and returning an SP of 112. Forget last run when last of four when long odds on favourite. Should be well ridden by S DeBerg.

PP13 – 23137 LUCKY’S MARIE (AUS) 8/1

4YO Mare by Dylan Thomas (Ire) 20 starts 9-4-3 $334,750 (mrlucky229)

Win Percent 45.0% AveragePze 16,737 SPRating 103

Ran a good third two starts back at Sweden over six and a half furlongs in the Grisly Grimalkin Stakes before slightly disappointing effort last start at Hong Kong in the Wishing Wells Stakes. Will be handled by M Cameron who will give him every chance. Not the roughest here.

Good Luck to all Runners

Steve