Donnybeisbol and the Quest for Relevance: Chapter 2
Welcome once again to another installment of simulated schaudenfreude, also known as my personal quest to win a Grade 1 stakes or risk permanent self-imposed SIM banishment. The source of the entertainment value of this spectacle clearly depends on your point of view (It’s educational…It’s uplifting! No… it’s pathetic!) but I hope to make it useful for anyone who stumbles across these articles.
http://www.wordnik.com/words/schadenfreude
In Chapter 1, we introduced you to my SIM history and chronicled my overall Grade 1 futility despite other successful outcomes.
http://www.blacktypebugler.com/default.asp?artid=9755
This week, I’d like to take a look at the runners who have been performing well and are plausible candidates to “take me down to the Paradise City” of SIMULATED SPORTS excellence. Of course, there have been a number of blunders along the way…
First and foremost in my mind is the 5yo horse DON’T DROP A DEUCE(KY). When shelling out a boatload of BP’s to breed Giant’s Causeway to my “Grade C” Red Ransom mare RED ROCK LASS(KY), the old adage that came to mind was “breed the best to the best, and hope for the best”. Of course with this being a beisbol horse, I imagined the gene pool glass as half-empty and thought “I’m going to be really distraught if the resultant foal is a simulated piece of crap”. Couple this with the lyric “Don’t turn around” from the chorus of the After the Fire version of Falco’s “Der Kommissar”…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Guvo7gUdUnE
… which I found myself singing earlier that day during a frantic scramble for the nearest restroom, and you have the inspiration for the name of my “best horse”.
http://derbyfever.com/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=102979
As you can see, he’s fast. And as the famous simster Iant stated on the message board, I haven’t actually raced him in a Grade 1 yet, which is a significant factor in him not winning any Grade 1 races. Thank-you, Captain Obvious.
There is a reason for that, beyond your first impulse which may be to say “Donny is a moron”. We’re not going to debate that issue at the moment.
What happened is… DDAD was a late foal, as I retired RED ROCK LASS in the middle of her 6yo campaign. Because I knew I could quickly turn around and breed her again, I chose the option of a 3yo foal for her first time in the shed – which also brings a little price relief when breeding to an active mare. Giant’s Causeway seemed like a logical choice, both for the injection of a Northern Dancer grass influence into the pedigree, and (here’s that pessimism again) a sire who is a top Dam Sire in case the foal is a flop on the racetrack.
DDAD showed speed and talent right away, winning or running 2nd as he went up in class and distance. He didn’t really exhibit a weakness until his second Graded Stakes try, where he failed to get the lead and tired badly. He had just cranked out a 112 SP at 9 furlongs, so I thought that perhaps getting the lead was the issue. With an extra 100 meters in his next race, a short field listed stake, he got the lead and opened up by 8 lengths…before being caught 100 meters from the wire.
Oops.
Being a Grade III winner at 9 furlongs, I found a similar spot at 8.5 furlongs to try… his first at that distance as he had only ran twice at 8 furlongs in allowance losses. DDAD got the lead, ran a solid 112 SP but finished out of the money in 4th. That was progress, but it sure didn’t feel like it at the moment. It’s as if the SIM gods were telling me “Wow, you’re almost really really good. Congratulations on achieving… nothing!”
Off to the chat room I dashed. Ok, not really – I was sitting in a desk chair eating Chili Cheese Fritos or something. But in the chat room, an amazing thing happened – I relayed my tales of woe (or is it, whoa!) and no one laughed at me.
Yes, there were other people in the room at the time.
Unanimously, it was suggested that I try DDAD at a shorter distance, perhaps 1 mile. The same one mile he had not excelled at – but that was then and this is now. What the heck? Why not. It couldn’t hurt to take some advice from anonymous trainers, could it?
and possibly this guy:
Lo and behold, in the one mile Grade II Sparkler Handicap, DDAD got the lead and held on to win with a 114 SP. “This horse is a top-level turf miler” I thought to myself without any assistance from Iant this time. “I’m going to (cue dramatic and fateful orchestral score) win a bunch of lesser Graded races and get him eligible for the Breeder’s Bowl”.
The wisdom of that choice is not inherently terrible, but the execution got a little constipated, if you’ll excuse the entendre. DDAD dropped a 115 SP in his next start, another Grade II, another victory. I was finally ready to drop a number on a Grade 1 field, and the Breeder’s Bowl mile was only 13 weeks away. DDAD was climbing the rankings but wasn’t quite assured of a spot in the field yet. I needed some more stakes points, but I didn’t want to burn him out as he had now run 3 straight races of 112 SP or more.
It was either get the points early and try to baby him up to the race, or take it easy now and get some points in a prep race so he’d be rested and sharp on the big day…
I decided to go with the later option. I felt that having 2 more tough races before the BB would mean 5 hard races in a row… surely he wouldn’t have much left in the tank when it counted most. I decided to rest him 8 weeks and run once before the race 5 weeks later. Perfect.
Except that when 8 weeks came and went, DDAD wasn’t sharp. I didn’t panic, he had run the 112 and the 105 without being sharp, and those were at longer distances. Furthermore, he ended up only having 4 foes in the Grade II Walnut BB mile, presumably scaring away much of the potential competition. The rest of the field was composed of only one former Graded Stakes Winner, a bargain-bred, a one-dimensional speed horse whom DDAD was faster than, and a former claimer who had lost three in a row and was still eligible for Allowance 3x conditions. What could go wrong?
Exactly.
This scenario had misfortune written all over it. DDAD got the lead and after a half mile was pulling away from the one-dimensional speed horse, who might as well have had a picture of a fork tattooed on his upper lip (this horse finished last). Home free!
But here comes misfortune.
Literally. Squirrel’s former claimer, MISFORTUNE(KY) charged like a rodent possessed, drawing off to win by 2 ¾ lengths for his first stakes victory of any kind. DDAD was still in second at the top of a stretch but folded like… a horse who hadn’t raced in 8 weeks… and finished a well-beaten 4th. The cruel fact that the other horses who beat him were named INEVITABILITY and EXCELLENT DECISION was not lost on me.
Message from SIM gods to Donny Beisbol?
DDAD did not have enough stakes points to get into the Breeder’s Bowl Mile, for which he trained Sharp, of course. A small consolation prize was another easy victory in the Grade III Von Bremen, a 111 SP and a 2 ¾ front-running victory without really breaking a sweat. DOOTY DA DOO(JPN) ran a 116 SP from just off the pace in winning the Breeder’s Bowl race, so I think I may have had a shot.
And I don’t want to say that MISFORTUNE’s grand performance was a fluke, but he proceeded to run 8th, 10th, 5th of 7 and 5th of 5 in his following starts. Somehow I experience no schaudenfreude with the tables turned…
The Grade I King Kong Mile came up 5 weeks later, but with all the Breeder’s Bowl stars entered and DDAD essentially racing non-stop since he was born, I decided to shelve him for the season. Another bad move, as DOOTY DA DOO did not run back to his previous effort, and a lesser-known closer named SILVER STEALTH(KY) stole the race with a 108 SP. What might have been…
On the positive side, I have a lightly raced 5yo who is very fast and is still undefeated at the Grade I level. He’s currently ranked 36th in the division, and has 10 more months to earn stakes points for the 2011 Breeder’s Bowl. I’ve not decided on a path for him yet – other than a nice 12-14 week break and an eventual Grade I try at a mile.
Can he overcome his greatest obstacle… his trainer? Stay tuned.
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Footnote: I was going to write about all the horses in my stables who are on the verge of a Grade I breakout…but honestly, I could only really qualify one. There are several in my stables who look like they could have the talent, but I wouldn’t bet afc’s lunch money on them just yet. We’ll save the analysis of those horses for Chapter 4.
Next episode: Shoulda, woulda, coulda: Horses who might have been good enough, but didn’t get the job done – and other experiments gone awry.