Black Minnaloushe to take South African opener?
The local bred restricted race in South Africa this week is a seven furlong turf event for fillies and mares at the $10k maiden claiming level. It has attracted a field of only six entrants. Let’s take a closer look at each.
(1) Pemberley Ridge (SAf) => Tiger Ridge x Shaamit (Ire) x Elliodor (Fr)
The SAF Connection (14.1%/42.0%)
T Loesch takes the ride on this bargain bred debutante. When he’s aboard, you have to sit up and pay attention. The filly is bred 4m x 5m to Northern Dancer through his sons Storm Bird and Lyphard. Her sire, Tiger Ridge, is a son of Storm Cat and stands for a hefty R100k in South Africa which makes him the joint fourth most expensive stallion there, along with Trippi. As such, the modest support and performance he’s had in the sim doesn’t do him justice.
(2) Apple Princess (SAf) => Announce (Saf) x Fine Edge (GB) x Godswalk
The SAF Connection (14.1%/42.0%)
This filly also makes her debut and looks the least fancied of the trio of entries from The SAf Connection. She is bred 5f x 5m,5m to Native Dancer through daughter Natalma and sons Atan and Dancer’s Image. Her sire, Announce, is a locally bred son of National Assembly and stands for a modest R15k in South Africa which is roughly in the middle of the ranks. He only gets a couple of sim runners per season.
(3) Grand Minnaloushe (SAf) => Black Minnaloushe x Grand Slam x Sword Dance (Ire)
The SAF Connection (14.1%/42.0%)
This filly goes off as the 2/1 second favourite, thanks to a decent pedigree and a couple of fair runs amongst her three starts to date. She tried a mile last time out in much stronger open maiden company and probably found the distance a bit much for her. Back in a sprint at restricted claiming level, her brisk early pace should see her hanging on for some of the spoils.
(4) Simamd (Zim) => Sobieksi x Native Charger x Star Way (GB)
CoMeDy Central (11.2%/35.4%)
Simamd is yet to finish in the first three despite having had a dozen starts. She hasn’t finished closer than 14 lengths back, ever, despite six starts in local bred races of various types. This race is at the lowest level yet for her, and she has the advantage of being a four year old up against mostly three year olds, but it’s unlikely she’ll do much more than show a bit of early pace before fading away tamely.
(5) Jelani (SAf) => Black Minnaloushe x Johar x Kingmambo =>
Smokeglack Stables (13.1%/41.9%)
Jelani starts as the warm 4/5 favourite and deserves her place at the top of the boards. As a four year old with 11 starts, she has the experience advantage. Her recent form has seen her finish in the money more often than not and her speed figures are quite some margin better than the others in this field that have raced before. She failed only narrowly over five furlongs last time when setting the pace and she has run well enough over trips as long as nine furlongs. What does seem in doubt though, is her ability to reproduce that form on the grass. Her five grass efforts haven’t seen her finish better than 10 lengths back.
(6) Black Monte (SAf) => Black Minnaloushe x Black Tie Affair (Ire) x Sword Dance (Ire)
Ace Ace Two Three Double Suited Stables (12.6%/36.7%)
This filly has had three fair to modest runs to date, finishing a bit worse than midfield at each attempt. Like the other race runners, she tends to show pace before fading out but faces weaker this time by dropping to a lower claiming level and into restricted company.
Summary:
The race looks tailor made for Jelani to crack that elusive maiden victory. Will she handle the grass this time? Past form suggests it is unlikely but she has shown good improvement since her latest stable change and I’m willing to give her the benefit of the doubt and say that she should win this. That said, I won’t be rushing to take the 4/5 odds on offer.
The minor positions look quite wide open. Grand Minnaloushe looks to have a strong chance of being in the money after competing at the front end early. Improvement from Black Monte looks likely, and the two unraced fillies could be anything. Of the pair, I’m leaning to Pemberley Ridge as a potential upset. At 10/1, throwing her into your bets could be the way to go.
With the top three in the betting being by Black Minnaloushe, could it be the daughter of the other Storm Cat stallion that steals the limelight?