Remember the Remember Stakes

Depending on how you count, this will either be the second or the eleventh running of the Remember Stakes.  From 2001 through 2009 it was run as a Grade III event in New Hampshire.  Last year it was upgraded to Grade II and moved to California.

If you choose to look at the entire history of the race the  most notable trend is that six of the eleven winners led from wire to wire.  The second major pattern is that five winners prepped for this race by winning an overnight stakes.   It’s also been a race dominated by chalk.  No winner was a surprise in the first nine runnings.

All of those patterns came undone in last year’s race.  Suzy’s Awesome was the eighth choice in an eleven-horse field, winning from off the pace and coming into the race after a poor fifth in a Grade III prep.  Was that the start of a new pattern?  Today’s winning trainer may hope not – Suzy has been winless since.

Here is a look at the field:

PP 1 CAPITAL KINDNESS(KY) (NORTH LIGHT (IRE) x MACHIAVELLIAN x SHADEED) bred and trained by screaming (Epcotlen Stables, 12%) Style: P, Odds: 9-2*

The co-favorite has had an eight-week freshening since her Breeders’ Bowl race.  She also shortens back to a classic distance after a couple of long routes.  There is no concern that this is too short for her – most of her races have been at a classic distance.  There is also no question of class.  She’s been in the money in 13 of her 20 graded starts, winning four.  She’s the highest ranked runner in the field and is showing little sign of slowing down in her 27th lifetime start.   The only nagging question is the layoff.  It’s her longest in memory.

PP 2 SPIRIT OF MUSIC(IRE) (INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x APTITUDE x CRIMSON SATAN) bred and trained by bestobene4 (Zeco stables Belgium, 18%) Style: S, Odds: 7-1

She never made her customary rally last time out and was a disappointing seventh in the Grade II Queen Liz Commemorative. She perhaps has some excuses.  That was a tough field, and she has a history of not running as well at ten furlongs as she does at nine.  In fact she’s two for two in graded stakes at this distance and has been out of the money in all of her graded tries going 10 or longer. 

PP 3 PLEASE MOVE OVER(KY) (PLEASANTLY PERFECT x PIVOTAL(GB) x GRAUSTARK) bred and trained by weller3 (Deadinthelane Stables, 21%) Style: S, Odds: 6-1

She finished second as the favorite in last year’s Remember Stakes and returns for revenge.  She’s prepped by running her last two races as the odds-on favorite in four-horse overnights.  Her preps don’t look as impressive as they did a year ago, and the speed figures are betraying some wear on the veteran mare.  Barn always does an excellent job in placing their runners, so respect her for that.

PP 4 PUBLIK CAUSEWAY(KY) (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD x NORTHERN DANCER) bred and trained by wreckagees (Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation, 27%) Style: P, Odds: 5-1

She made a huge run last time in the Grade III Red Bird.  (Oddly enough the favorite in the race was none other than Suzy’s Awesome.)  A repeat of that effort would make her a tough beat here.  While she’s won nearly half her races and is seldom out of the money, she has averaged a nearly five-point regression in her speed figures following very big efforts.  Clearly a threat to at least finish in the money.  She was entered in the race within 40 minutes of closing, evidence this very high percentage barn likes her chances.

PP 5 FORGOTTEN TEMPLE(AUS) (REDOUTE’S CHOICE (AUS) x WILD AGAIN x DANZIG) bred and trained by astinator2 (Astins Place, 27%) Style: S, Odds: 9-2*

Lightly raced mare beat up on Whipped  (the number one mare in the division) and others last time in the Grade I Motherly Love while stretching her win streak to three, her graded win streak to two, and her streak of finishing first or second on firm turf to 13 out of 13.  Hard to find a flaw, but here’s our best effort: While she’s been nearly unbeatable at a mile or a mile-and-a-sixteenth, her slowest race ever came when she broke her maiden at nine furlongs.  Sure she won by five lengths that day, and the jockey may have saved some effort, but Astin has kept her at shorter distances ever since.  OK, it’s not much.

PP 6 REIGN IN HADES G(KY) (E DUBAI x FORESTRY x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by citation4 (Pgpg Stables, 9%) Style: E, Odds: 8-1

Veteran mare makes her 41st start, needing to win only $550 to become a millionaire.  Her last race, an unimpressive sixth in an allowance race does not inspire confidence, but we note that four times in her past she has followed a mid-90s speed figure race with one nearly ten points higher and earning her a check.  She did just that as recently as last Autumn.  She certainly does better when she can be part of the early action, and this field makes that a possibility.

PP 7 AWESOME TIM(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x FORESTRY x KINGMAMBO) bred by stupor4, trained by sluggy1 (Sluggish Cat, Inc., 18%) Style: S, Odds: 19-1

Terrible filly, terrible trainer.  Sure she managed a second against a field of boys in an overnight last time, but let’s not get carried away.  Sure, she has a pattern of winning every other race and that pattern says it’s go time, but that’s just silly.  Maybe her jockey can pick up some extra change by offering her as a companion pony in the post parade.  No, really, she needs more seasoning before she tackles graded stakes.   Worst. Trainer. Ever.

PP 8 SUREFIRETHING(IRE) (MONTJEU (IRE) x NIJINSKY II x KRIS S.) bred by magpies2, trained by kpacker (Billy2shoe Stables, 14%) Style: E, Odds: 13-1

Five-year-old makes her third stakes start and her first start in at the graded level.  She won her last by about the biggest margins you’ll see, but the gaudiness of that statistic is tempered by the weak competition she faced.  With several in here capable of, and likely to, run speed figures close to 110, she looks like anything but a surefirething.  She may be a factor early.

PP 9 PANTHENON(KY) (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY II) bred and trained by oostende2 (Oostende2 Stables, 19%) Style: P, Odds: 5-1

Another very impressive winning streak here, as she goes for her fifth straight win and third straight graded win.  With her last win, she’s become a top-25 ranked mare, and she’s is just getting better.  Two races back she beat the number three mare and our friend Suzy’s Awesome.  She’s been worse than second only once in her 15 starts at this distance or shorter.  Perfect running style for this race.   Tough to bet against.

PP 10 MISS STREET(KY) (STREET CRY (IRE) x RUBIANO x POLISH NUMBERS) bred and trained by kobras6 (Kobras Stable, 11%) Style: E, Odds: 10-1

Five-year-old is very sharp right now, with three straight stakes wins and an in-the-money streak that’s lasted over seven months.  She is the speed of the speed and is a threat to wire the field.  Seven of her wins have come in just that fashion, and this race (well, the New Hampshire years of it anyway) has a history of winners going wire-to-wire.  She ran he Remember last year, ran second early, and faded badly late.  She is a risky choice as her record in graded stakes is terrible.  In six tries she’s never finished in the money and five of her losses were by more than ten lengths.

Summary.  It’s a very tough call between Capital Kindness, Forgotten Temple, and Panthenon as to who deserves favoritism.  Here is my trifecta: Panthenon / Forgotten Temple / Awesome Tim.