The Ninth Penn Dash
Fourteen to contest 9th Penn Dash
Greetings and salutations from Penn Raceway, which hosts the turf portion of DPCD IX for the ninth consecutive season. This year, DPCD IX falls on Christmas Day, and one trainer, horse and jockey will waltz home with a very nice prize from Kris Kringle- in the form of an elusive Grade 1 win and some 1.8 million dollars. Not a bad way to end the year.
PP1 MR. COFFEE (by Empire Maker) Lightly raced four year old has really come to handlately, with two gigantic runs. Two back, he ran a lights out 118 and finished-second? Yup, sure did. That time of 1:20 4/5 for seven panels would haveshattered the Penn Dash record by two clicks, yet he came up a length wantingafter assuming the lead at the top of the lane. Last out, he scored his first graded win in the Grade 2 Because I SaidSo Stakes, again taking the lead at the top of the stretch and this timeholding off a late charge to win by a diminishing head in the six furlongtest. Mr. Coffee takes his with no creamor sugar, and likes to bust out of the gate with a full head of steam. Doesn’tneed the lead, but rest assured he’ll be pushing the early leaders, waiting to pounce. In with a huge shot here at 6-1.
PP2 DON’T PLAY ME (by Theatrical) Another lightly raced sort, this three year old colt has 10 wins from 18 lifetime starts. He ran down Mr. Coffee in the De La Fore Stakes, firing a 120 figure. He’s not a dead closer, but he’ll sit a good bit further back than will some of the others. Looks like that monster effort has taken a bit out of him (no surprise there), as he’s failed to top 110 in his two last starts. Interesting angle here is that although he was off the board LTO, that was a mile race….sometimes, the cutback in distance leads to a gigantic race, and he looks primed here. Off theboard only once in 10 sprints….look out! 7-1 on this strapping youngster.
PP3 SPAWN OF THE DEVIL (by Danehill Dancer) The first of the Super entries, it looks likethe Devil’s spawn may have forgotten how to swim. Four year old colt has tailed off badly inhis last three after winning the G3 Diana Ross at this distance with a 108.Even on his best day, he’s in for a tough test with this company. Considering recent form, it would be an absolute shocker to see him get his picture taken, even at 21-1. Toss.
PP4 SUPER RISK (by Danehill Dancer) Super fires a second shot here with this four yearold half to Spawn of the Devil. SuperRisk is the better of the two, and is capable of pulling this one out. His long odds are the product of a dismal 61 fig some three and a half months ago, where he was pulled up in the lane with a tossed shoe. His comeback race was excellent, as he ran a 112 while getting just nipped at the wire in the listed Pearl Wine Stakes at 7.5 furlongs. Back class is there, as he’shung tough in several top notch sprints, including the Rising Sun Spring Cup, the Len Knocks and a couple others. Needs to step up his game a bit, as his graded races have been a cut below his top efforts. Best when on the lead, but can stalk and pounce. A nice play at generous 14-1.
PP5 POLAR TALES (by Tale of the Cat) Oddsmaker has spotted him near the top of the field in here, as this stone closer goes postward at 7-1. Has a ferocious late kick, which he showed off nicely in his tuneup for the Penn Dash, winning theMount Flying Handicap going away in 1:21 flat for a sharp 113 number. He’s a graded stakes winner and seems best suited to seven-7.5 furlongs. He’ll find this trip right up his alley, provided he gets some room for his late burst. The faster they go early, the better it is for Polar Tales, and it certainly looks like there’s some real speed in this race. More than fair odds on this one, but one must note that his last three races have all seen an increase in his figs, including a career top last time out. Looking tough, but may be setup for a bounce on the three week turnaround.
PP6 WILLFUL NEGLECT (by Wilko) Right off the top, one thing sticks out. He’s going to have to improve upon his lifetime best of 108 to figure here. That’s not going to get it done in this race, and he’s only run that fast once. On a slow improve in form, but not convinced he’s got that big of a move forward left in him. Another interesting tidbit- he’s tough if he gets the lead, not so brave if he doesn’t. He won’t toss the bit if he doesn’t break on top, but in his recent starts, he either gets the lead and wins, or doesn’t get it and loses. Don’t think he makes the front out of the gate here. Draw your own conclusions off that bit of wisdom.
PP7 BRAVE PASSION (by Forestry) Three year old has a Grade 2 win on his resume’, but that’spretty much it. Ran a career top 109 in taking down the G2 HawkZ Guineas at seven furlongs, then got run down in an allowance race at 7/5, and was drubbed LTO in his first try against elders in the G2 Because I Said So Stakes. Likes to be near the front early, in fact, it looks like he HAS to be in order to run well. If he drops more than five lengths out before the halfway mark, may as well unsaddle him and take a shorter trip back to the barn. 24-1 longshot doesn’t look to have much of a shot.
PP8WHATHAPPENSINVEGAS (by Elusive Quality) Stays in Vegas? Right…..So, here’s a nice looking three year old who’s been relatively solid for much of the year,and has shown nice improvement. He’s already defeated older horses in a listed event as well. Has also shown some nice backclass, running second in the G2 Snow Phantom Appreciation Stakes with a sharp 112. However, he hasn’t been able to move forward off that effort. In fact, he’s regressed, failing to top 107 in his last four. Should appreciate the added ground he’ll see here, but I don’t know if that’s enough to turn the tables. Several others will have to run under their best to give this guy a shot with his top effort. He’ll sit off the pace some four or five lengths and look to grind them down late.
PP9 ETHICS PARADOX (by Giant’s Causeway) The third of the Super entries, this five year old warhorse is making his 41st start, and it’s looking a little bit like he kind of died around start #37 or so. He’s a Grade 1 winner on both surfaces, so his backclass is beyond question. Looked to have a great late in life future on dirt, winning back to back stakes, the G3 Cracked Peanuts Sprint and the G1Binger Handicap with a 112/113 respectively. But the dirt promised land was short lived, as he crashed back to Earth in his next three starts, including a long time worst run of 96 LTO. So, here he is, back to the green stuff to try and rekindle the rapidly dimming candle. He finished seventh in this race a year ago, and it’s worth noting that he’s NEVER won at seven furlongs. Does that change in his 41st start? In Grade 1company? Einstein would say “not relatively.” I tend to agree. May charge up from the back of the pack to nab a piece of the pie, but won’t get to the wire first.
PP10 MEAN DICE (by Medicean) Now, here’s a three year old I REALLY like. He’s come on like gangbusters in his last five races, and although he only shows an open allowance win in those efforts,this is the sort of form cycle that indicates that a horse is really starting to come into his own. He’s pretty versatile to boot, winning on the lead and from a stalking position. His last race was very sharp, finishing a tight 3rdin the G3 MBS Swan Stakes against older horses while running a 114. Hails from a top barn as well. He can pretty much let things unfold in front of him and let jock A Rolling pick his spot. Lots to like here, and it only gets better when you toss in 10-1 odds. Sharp….
PP11 SPURS A FLYIN’ (by Flying Spur) Yet another three year old who’s really come into his own. Was second in the aforementioned G3 MBS Swan Stakes, missing the whole enchilada by a ¼ length. He backed up that 115 he ran that day with two other recent efforts of 110+, so it looks like that 115 is real, and not a one time freak performance. Only problem I see here is that he bounced good LTO, finishing 10th in a listed stakes. Each time he’s run a new top, he regresses in the next race, but comes on strong in his following start, tossing a new or close to new career top. Well, the bounce is out of the way, and I like his chances of approaching that 115 tomorrow. He does, he can get his picture taken. He’s yet another who will press an already hot pace, as he likes to sit in the second tier, within 3-4 lengths of the leaders. Nice price of 8-1 on a solid, improving colt.
PP12 CRUEL SUMMER (by Storm Cat) The lone filly in the field is ranked #2 in the filly turf sprint division. She’s a closer who will benefit from the expected pace in this race. Very consistent sort, who likely would have found the filly/mare sprint on this card, the G2 Mumtaz Mahal, a bit short for her liking. She’salready proven her mettle against the boys, running a closing 3rd in the G2 Hawkz Challenge. Consistently in the 106-108 range, and has proven capable of going 110+. She’ll need to find room to unleash her late run, and with Ledwith up, she’s going to get her chance. Just don’t know if she’s fast enough if some of the colts really fire big in here. You’ll get 10-1 on the filly, which is a square price.
PP13 STRIKE WHEN READY (by More Than Ready) The 5-1 favorite gets relegated to a faroutside posts. Won’t matter. On fire in his last five, going 4-0-1 in those races. The most recent race was a fantastic win in the G1 BB Turf Sprint, where Strike When Ready settled uncharacteristically well back in the pack and then took off, running away to a two length win with a 117 figure. Usually, as he has in his other recent graded victories, he likes to lay close up, usually in the third or fourth slot, some 2-4 lengths behind the leaders. Showing the versatility he did in the BB should scare the daylights out of a lot of others in the field. There’s just not a lot to dislike here. Fast, versatile and on top of his game to boot. 5-1 looks like a gift here.
PP14 ROAD NOT TAKEN (by Storm Cat) Five year old vet is showing signs of wearing down,even though he enters off a nice score in the G3 Movieland Turf Express Handicap. But he’s gradually slowing down….was in the 110+ range last year, then 107 or so earlier this year, now 101-105. Not a good trend, no matter what his last race was. Time only matters in jail, you say? Well, yeah, but when you’ve got a pp form like this that shows progressively slower times, it DOES matter. Has to be within four lengths of the early lead to win, and coming from the outside post, he’s really going to have to gun to secure that sort of trip. I think Father Time and the post are conspiring against him here. Pass, even at 15-1.
PICKS: Tough to get past Strike When Ready, but I’m gonna try….
Win: Spurs A Flyin’
Place: Mean Dice
Show: Strike When Ready
Good luck to all!