Risk Management: Dangerous Reward 5/1 co-favorite in Three Smokestacks
For some, this week could represent the crowning achievement of a long career; for others, this week represents one last shot at an elusive spot in the starting gate for the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff. For still others, a final but nonetheless dangerous prep for the big dance two weeks hence, for while running 2 weeks before the biggest race of the year could bring these mares into the Breeders’ Bowl razor sharp, it could also drain them, leaving them sapped when called on in the more important contest to come, or precluding them from starting altogether.
Here’s what we know: with the exception of co-favorites Dangerous Reward and English Bark, the majority of the field is looking for either their first success at the highest level, or at least their first success in a very long time at this level. We know that Dangerous Reward and English Bark, despite their lofty rankings (they are the #5 and #7 dirt classic fillies), each have fallen on rough times as of late, and will need a special effort here combined with a favorable condition upon their return to justify a starting spot in the Breeders’ Bowl. Finally, only two of the 14 runners look like they have no shot, leaving twelve serious contenders to vie for a $500,000 purse over 9 furlongs in
Three Smokestacks Stakes
Grade I
A mile and one eighth
Fast Dirt
$500,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Top of Form
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments |
1 | GONE FISSION | 7/1 | Two consecutive wins have demonstrated that this mare is willing to press the pace or lay back off of it, versatility that should allow her to adapt to the race today rather than hoping the race plays out in a form suitable to her tastes. That said, a top jockey often seems to accentuate the abilities of a versatile horse, while poor jockeys can kill a horse’s chances, and with only a 5% jockey on board here, I’m not sure this one can successfully jump from allowance company to a G1 group today. | |||
2 | TEMPESTUOUS | 12/1 | With her best effort, she’s a stakes quality filly, but whether she can stick with fillies like Dangerous Reward and English Bark is up for debate. Certainly running to the 103 speed figure she put up two back would be helpful, and she’ll get a good pace to run at, but as with Gone Fission, a poor jock will hurt her chances. | |||
3 | DANGEROUS REWARD | 5/1 | A bankroll of $2.3 million stamps this filly as one of the obvious choices here, and that sentiment is reflected with her status as morning line favorite. She picked a spot that came up rather soft as G1 events go for her attempt at snapping a 4 race losing streak that came on the heels of a 4 race winning streak. She also finished 2nd in this race last year, losing by just a nose, and missed by only ¼ length in the Go For Gold Stakes (G1) two races back. This is only her 7th race of 2005, so there is reason to think she could wheel back for a 3rd consecutive year in the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff, but first she’ll need to put in a good account here. That shouldn’t be a problem, making determinations based on speed figures; anything in the range of 105 has her contending for the win. | |||
4 | DEPUTY PAUNCHI | 8/1 | The speed numbers make her competitive, but she found the jump from allowance to stakes company quite a shock, and there’s reason to believe that the jump from ungraded to G1 company will be similarly difficult. Not unconceivable that she’ll threaten here, but there are probably horses with fewer variables to consider. | |||
5 | 12/1 | Speedball ran some fantastic races this summer, but since then has suffered a little bit while not making the lead predictably. If she can get back to her freewheeling ways, she’ll demonstrate that she’s not 12th in the division for no reason. Whether that’s good enough or not is debatable; she’d need to at least match the career best form she flashed this summer. A win or 2nd place finish boosts her over $1,000,000 in earnings. | ||||
6 | UDONTWANTNONE | 8/1 | Contrary to the name, we all want a filly like this one. If she runs to the 108 speed figure that she shows in her performance lines, she won’t be beaten by this group. Despite recently plying her trade below a mile, she’s been off the board only one in 13 lifetime starts at a mile or better, and this one should set up well for her closing kick. The most likely winner from my point of view. | |||
7 | KRISTI YAMICUCHI | 8/1 | Pedigree worth its weight in gold; running style not so much. Speedy and talented, but she’s one dimensional, and has just a 4% jock on board. Though she’s not a sure-toss, she looks like she’s more of a player in this race as far as insuring a hot pace for others (Udontwantnone, Dangerous Reward, etc.) to run at. | |||
8 | BLESSED BELLE | 26/1 | Beautifully bred, this filly unbelievably manages to play 3rd fiddle in texasace’s barn behind the king of the three year old turfers ( | |||
9 | SEE JAY TEE | 50/1 | She’s beaten two horses in her last two races and seems unlikely to add to that tally here. | |||
10 | WAR PEGASUS | 16/1 | Hasn’t been in the money in the last 8 starts, and her speed numbers are just a hair below what she needs to compete here. | |||
11 | ENGLISH BARK | 5/1 | Ranked 5th in the division, and carrying D. Givens in the irons, its no surprise she’s at 5/1. A G1 winner earlier this year, she was off form until an allowance win last time out and is, believe it or not, looking for her 2nd victory in this race (she took it two years ago as well). If someone will beat Udontwantnone, this filly ranks the best shot, especially if she’s really back on the form she held earlier this year. | |||
12 | THE DIVORCE | 25/1 | 16 starts, with 1 win. Her inability to consistently best her contemporaries makes it ridiculous to conceive of her making a serious impact in her first start against elders. | |||
13 | SNOWBUNNY SAILOR | 9/1 | Must excuse the regression last time out, but tossing that one, she shows a very positive pattern and should continue improving. That said, like others in the field, she makes a big jump from ungraded stakes to G1 competition and might take some time to adjust. | |||
14 | STARLIGHT | 12/1 | Scatters stellar efforts among many mediocre ones, and just doesn’t look like she’s sitting on a big one, especially coming out of a 15k allowance. |