The Pennsylvania Handicap: Not Just Any ‘Given’ Saturday?
DelPenn is unstoppable. While this year’s running of DelPenn Champions Day was almost a victim of a confluence of events, their marquee event, a day of about two dozen races historically geared towards settling division titles, personal grudges and private goals across the Sim, was rescued just in time for this Christmas Day for the benefit of the entirety of the Sim. It could have died due to economy, apathy, frustration, or a hundred other differing notions, but it was rescued for the Sim to enjoy for another year, and we are all grateful for the chance to settle scores, right wrongs and enjoy some of the Sim’s best horses on one of its most vital and historic events.
Last year, Given steered Kazimi to victory in the Pennsylvania Handicap, a Grade I event worth $1.5 million. This year, some of the conditions across the board were altered, but the $1,5000,000, Grade II Pennsylvania Handicap has still maintained a sense of awe about it. This time, it’s not a huge field, but what it gained was a certain historic theme. Because, really, how many people can claim that they not only started three horses in a race, but three horses with a valid shot at winning the same graded, million-dollar race, including a defending champion, all of whom have won graded races in the last 12 months and change? Given can now say that, as one of his barns saddles three starters in the field: Kazimi, plus male ingénue Dwarf and speedball The Strangler. It’s a hot hand, and he’s not only got it, they all have varying degrees of potential at winning, if not necessarily sweeping. I’m no student of Sim history in my six years, but it sounds like almost rarefied air if he can pull off a sweep with three horses, from one barn, in a million-dollar race with a field of eight. Needless to say, his empire looks strong here, but there are five others willing to knock the Eveready battery off his shoulder, including Topicount’s Buda Rocks and our first entrant…
Moskovskaya [Dynaformer-Pravda, by Kingmambo, trained by super10 for Simply……..SUPER!] is descended from some talented history, though not in this particular event; Pravda was a multiple Grade I winner who retired last year, capable enough to earn just over $1.5 million, but not enough to have been better than fifth in past DPCD events. The pedigree, however, endures, strong enough that her two foals are both graded winners currently active. This one was her first, and due to the prolific nature of the sire, the colt struck gold quickly in May’s Grade I Jockey Club in France. It took him six months to repeat in the Grade II Cities Cup, but it was good enough to improve his form for a shot at $1.5 million of his own. He’s coming around on form, as the Cities Cup was his first win versus older, and yet he still needs to lift those speed figures to a new all-time high by a few points in order to match wits with some of the best long-route specialists around. It should be said that he’s tactically versatile, but he’s likely to take a stalker’s role here, simply because the speed horses that are contending in the race seem to be strong enough on their own to take the field out early and try to maintain late. He’s well-bred and capable enough, but he might not even be at present the best three-year-old in the race without another step forward on form. Additionally, the mile and three-sixteenths distance is a bit shorter than the routes he seems to prefer, by about a furlong. Good horse, bright future, but has some obstacles in this spot that might keep him from exploding like he has this year.
Dancing Tenpin [Theatrical x Seeking The Gold, trained by tenpin8 for Rockriver Stables] plays the role this year of veteran stepping back into a level where he was successful years ago, not unlike Presious Passion or Interpatation these days. He’s a graded winner from 2007, his only graded victory among a few graded-placed outings, and he’s still capable of running a stakes-level race, as he did back in September in the Brown Fields, when he was second and picked up a 108 speed figure. He’s a gamer making start #58 here, and can still pull together a string of victories, as he did with a three-race win streak a year ago. But he’s also a veteran who has seen some better days; he hasn’t won since January, and hasn’t seen the winner’s circle in a stakes race since May 2008. He can still fire off the occasional sparkling number, but his best days are behind him on that count as well. Why spot him here? For one, he likes the distance, his sole graded win coming at nine furlongs. And, like a few of this year’s DPCD entrants, the fields are a touch smaller than they had been a year or two ago, which means there’s plenty of room to shoot at the moon if you have a horse with stakes-class enough to aim high. He falls into that category, even if his road to victory may require him to run a speed figure about 5 points higher than his recent best. And since he’s never broken the 110 mark, that raises the bar even higher. He’ll be a good he-mare down the road, and for now he’ll likely try the role of closer—not a deep closer, but far back enough to give the front-runners a chance to run themselves into the ground. I’m afraid this craggy ol’ vet might need more breaks going his way than are likely here, however, in order to pull off a stunner, even at just 10-1.
Buda Rocks [Rock Hard Ten-Beauty And Me, by Seattle Slew, trained by chop for Bush League Stables :)] is one of Topicount’s fine runners, and she’s got a corker in this one, one of the finest grass three-year-olds in the Sim at present. Well-bred, as ever, he’s a half to two other graded winners, Tamora and Holland Park, both of whom seem to have found success at shorter distances, on both surfaces. He’s already a DelPenn vet, finishing third last year in one of the juvenile turf races, so he knows this event’s pressures, and he’s come across his graded wins fairly recently, winning the Grade II Usain Bolt against three-year-olds on October 9, and running right back on October 23 and defeating older horses soundly in the Grade III Farley. The wins were both so resounding he picked up speed figures of 109 and 115, which is pretty damn sly for two races in 14 days. He came closer to Earth with a 109 last out, just after Thanksgiving in the Grade III Little River Band (have you heard about the lonesome loser?), but he’s freshened up a bit since then. The respite should help him out, and the field, while solid, isn’t especially imposing, so it should help make him one of the favorites, right? Well, he shouldn’t hate an extra sixteenth beyond where he’s been successful at, there shouldn’t be a different tactical race by him coming from mid-pack, and he’s run a hole in the wind this fall in graded action. He’s #12 in this difficult division for three-year-olds routing on turf, where if you’re not a miler and not a classic-distance horse at a mile and a quarter sometimes you get lost in the shuffle between specialties. A run back to the Farley should make him tough to collar here, but against talented older horses nothing is etched in stone for even a hot three-year-old.
Hinge [Johar-Giddyup Diddie, by With Approval, trained by polpot for Goody Stables] has spent a lot of his career to date knocking heads with the graded set. The only trouble is, he’s been no better than a second against them at his best. Second in a Grade III in Texas this spring, second at 3 in a springtime graded turf race, even second in this year’s Sunny Millions Turf, but nothing on the big stage. It doesn’t mean he can’t run, though. He won a stakes race at this distance last out, and even in defeat he’s shown himself capable of tossing off speed figures over 110, usually against superior opposition. A pretty versatile horse, he’ll likely spend his time here coming from just off the lead against this small field, though there’s some speed here as well. The problem here is that, even though he’s a stakes winner at this distance, he’s still in need of closing the talent gap at this level. He has beaten the very rich Carnival Of Love, which, if you’ve ever beaten a horse that’s won $8 million lifetime, is a feather in your cap, but he’s not done it frequently or consistently enough at this level to be a true factor. The distance definitely suits him, and you can’t knock a last-out winner at the distance, and he did earn a 109 and seems to be coming alive at his favorite time of year. But what he gets in improving form may get trumped by another graded test against a field he’s been close to defeating without really having done so before. A good horse who needs to improve his form to “great” in a hurry here in order to truly stand out, this might just be a bridge too far at the moment.
The Strangler [Pivotal x Sadler’s Wells, trained by grrm2 for Given Stables: Fire and Blood] is another horse who has hit upon some magic in 2010. He started the year by winning four straight, including a Grade II, and then rebounded from a somewhat lackluster summer to have a magnificent fall by equaling his career-topping speed figure of 116 with a win in the Grade I Coxless, which almost doubled his earnings in one fell swoop. It was one dominating performance, won wire-to-wire with almost embarrassing ease, and though it was just one race, and his first win since the Grade II Kakarazuka Tinen Cup in June, it showed he loves to take them as fast as he can as far as he can, and that should suit him well in a race in which he’s probably the main source of speed. No other horse in the field has shown even a fraction of the front-running speed this horse has, so it moves beyond a question of who will run with him to a matter of “how fast, how far?”, a question taking on some added importance by the fact this race isn’t at his preferred distance of a mile and a quarter. Can it make a difference? Well, the Sim, as we all know, can be finicky as hell with distances, preferences and specificity of the intangibles, so it’s hard to say what impact, if any, one measly sixteenth might have. But no one is going to challenge him, banking on him running himself out of steam late. If he can even come close to the 116’s he has earned, he might be sitting pretty anyway. We’re speaking of a horse who’s got past-performance lines that show him opening up by 8, by 10 3/4, by 7 1/2 lengths, and easing home with some comfort. What might stop him is the slightly shorter distance, and perhaps a bounce in his speed figure; the last time he picked up a 116, he subsequently bounced lower than normal for him and started an underwhelming summer of just-OK runs and speed figures bouncing around the 100s like a pinball. Frankly, though, here, this is one nice horse that will prove to be difficult to collar if he’s still on top of his form. It’s a good Grade I field, not a great one for this late in the year and the distance, but if the late-blooming three-year-olds don’t catch a breeze, he’s the one to beat.
Kazimi [Distorted Humor-Hatuibwari, by Deputy Minister, trained by grrm2 for Given Stables: Fire and Blood] is The Stablemate. Why is he here this time? Well, he’s the defending DPCD winner of this race a year ago, for starters. He loses a big chunk of his stakes points shortly, for another. He’s already picked up a 117 this year, for yet another reason. His current form isn’t all that great, frankly, though it’s only a matter of proportion: he won at the distance in an Upper New York allowance two back ( a 99), and earned a speed figure of 117 winning a nine-furlong stakes back in February, plus his speed figure last year for this very race was a 115, well in keeping with his abilities and this field’s potential overall. Also, even though the results haven’t been wins and black-type results, he’s been competitive in many graded races in 2010, including a second in the Grade I Eddie O with a 114 speed figure in August and a pair of fourths in a couple of springtime Grade I events. I guess it’s not so much “What he’s doing here?” as much as it’s a matter of “Will last year’s winner show up this year?” Toss his tenth-place finish in this year’s BB Mile, a distance he clearly doesn’t desire at this level, and he’s still pretty competitive, when he wants to be. He’s the deep closing threat this year, coming from way back, and his stablemate could set up as a good rabbit for such a run. He’s capable, for certain, and he can contend at this level, he just needs to get his groove back and turn on the charm, and the afterburners, once more. His stablemate is the better bet, but this one has a certain veteran charm to him that could see him claw his way into a moneyed position with a good trip.
Wall Street Market [After Market-Tropical Spirits, by Ghostzapper, trained by stormboot2 for Dixiedotco Racing] is a half to a blue-chip local-bred from Oklahoma, a juvenile graded-winning filly who came on at the right time in the latter half of the year to show some potential for next season. A three-year-old winner of this year’s Grade III Virginia Derby at this distance, he’s also won the Grade III Cant Breeder’s Cup back in September, making him one of autumn’s more intriguing sophomores on turf. The Cant did earn him a speed figure of 114, a season high for him, but though his season was consistent enough, he lacked a bit of the dazzle that a couple of the other three-year-olds managed to show the world. He’s a closer, and should be one here too, but though the results have him picking up pieces of purses all over the country in 2010, he’s been fairly workmanlike, earning some figures in the low-100’s in defeat instead of raising eyebrows at this level, and that lack of great performances, replaced by just fairly good ones, keeps him a notch below others in his crop. To his credit, though, he only started running versus older horses last time out, a respectable third in a Florida Grade III. The 109 he earned was strong for that first try, and maybe it’s a sign of maturity if he can follow something like that here. The distance and pedigree suit him for this, but he really needs to break down barriers in this spot and stop being merely “serviceable” when “stellar” is required. It may take more than just this race to move him up the ladder of success a few more rungs, and that remains to be seen going forward.
Dwarf [Dynaformer x Awesome Again, trained by grrm2 for Given Stables: Fire and Blood]…what the hell? This Given chap seems loaded for bear here, with starter #3 from this one barn in the race. I guess it shows you just how deep he’s running when he can start not just three horses, but three of varying quality in the same race, including the winner from last year’s rendition. This one’s only making start #13, and while he seems on paper to be the least of his three starters right now, this is the one with the most evident future potential. A distant third to his front-running stablemate in the Grade I Coxless last time out, that defeat snapped a four-race winning streak, which included a career-high 112 speed figure in the Grade II Main Oak and the Grade II Guillaume, with just the latter coming against other three-year-olds. The distance suits him ideally here, with most of his grass wins (save for one) coming at ten furlongs, and the other win at nine furlongs. Also, his best results at higher levels seem to come from not too far from the lead, sitting chilly in the second flight of contenders. He possesses some tactical speed which would be foolish to waste on a speed duel with his own horse, but his mid-pack closing kick could be enough to see him through the stretch drive. He’s still developing at this stage, a late bloomer at 3, and at start #13 it might be too much to ask to hope for a breakthrough here with a lot of running left in his career, but the right move could see him make a run at least a 1-2 finish if the early speed doesn’t disintegrate. He has beaten his elders once, though, and so, anything seems to be possible this DPCD.
The choices:
1. The Strangler
2. Buda Rocks
3. Dwarf
Happy holidays, everyone.