Don’t Play Me: Do Play Me

Lipstick Guineas

Grade III

One mile

Firm Turf

$75,000

All horses, 3 years old

In all the previews I’ve written, I don’t think I’ve liked a favorite as much as I do DON’T PLAY ME(KY).  Are any of the others in here even in the top 100 on turf?  I don’t think so.  It is his to lose, and funny things happen, but I say this time they don’t.

PP  Horse ID  Horse  Owner  Jockey  Odds 

1 82278 COTTERPIN LOSER(KY)  cmd5  GD Mate  6/1    

18th start and counting for this speedster.  He was a hot one at midsummer, zipping to leads in graded races as contentious as the Regal Hill and the Del Webb Mile and putting up big numbers.  But even in those, he often faded and was off the board.  His last out was a vindicating front-end score in an N4L allowance.  That might put him back in the pink, but it’s been quite a few hard races since the dizzying heights earlier this year, when it looked like he might hit the 110’s.  Don’t think he’s the one to do it today.

2 181462 STREETS OF COLAC(KY)  keishamay  P Chamberlin  19/1  

More speed on the inside.  He looked poised for a big season when third in last year’s Saint Cloud, but he’s been mostly bouncing around the edges this year and only comes in as an N1X winner.  That win was more than a year ago, and we will need to see something different than recent form to expect him in the trifecta.  COTTERPIN LOSER(KY) is a more accomplished frontrunner, so he has his work cut out.

3 59183 INDY INDY INDY G(KY)  dgdg  M Goff  8/1    

Quite nicely developing sophomore with you-know-who as a sire.  Returns to stakes after experiencing trouncings in May and June (and the Grade 1 Jockey Club was probably beyond his scope and out of his league).  Despite some nice runs on turf, he actually looks better on dirt, as evidenced by his lifetime-best 103 last out in an allowance.  As he couldn’t win that one on a lower level and on what looks like his preferred surface, it’s hard to see him beating the favorite.  Still, keep him in your exacta/trifecta thoughts.

4 127268 STRADAVARIUS(IRE)  lenny28  M Margolf  7/1    

Definitely a value play in here.  His last two were BAM! – lights out wins in mile allowances.  While that may not impress on the class rise, he won clear with speeds of 105 and 110, some of the few such numbers to threaten the favorite, and he has the tactical ability to make his move when he wants.  Interesting win wager and definite in the exacta under the favorite.

5 182658 DON’T PLAY ME(KY)  1stclass  F Inzamam  Even    

#3 turf sprinter among sophomores, #36 in routes, multiple graded wins, a 120 (!) in the De La Fore two back, wins at the distance, a nearly 20% winning jockey, deep closing kick, all his siblings are graded winners.  What are the chinks in his armor?  That he hasn’t had all that much rest this fall?  That he will move too late and not catch a runaway train like TRUFFLE SHUFFLE(KY) last time in the Ascot Vail?  My advice: invest in the best.  Like his dam’s name, he’s the Upper Crust and he knows it.

6 79991 ZORACHT(GER)  given4  T Mooney  9/1  

Good-looking son of Monsun flies in to compete outside of Virginia for the first time.  He cut back in distance to this trip last time, and it agreed with him: a win at 109 speed.  It’s hard to tell if he was laying a little further off the pace in that race than he had in his other recent races, or it was just that he was not running like a miler in a 12-furlong contest, but a miler at a mile.  But he lacks stakes experience, and also moves from a career pairing with Ridenour (one of the best on the Virginia grounds) to the moderate Mooney.  Tough sell but has a chance.

7 178190 WINGED SPIRIT(AUS)  bevron  O Rann  11/1    

Hard to tell if he’s still a pacesetter/presser type, since he’s been a bit under water in his last three.  He’s been judiciously scheduled since pairing up 101s this spring, but like the rail horse he is not going the right direction in his development.  He was trounced by the favorite in the Ascot Vail last out, and those expecting a reversal may be just dreamers.

8 122779 BOARDWALK ACCESS(FL)  yours2view  T Childress  5/1    

There are two nice things about his turf form: a 106 and 107 among his last three races.  In between, though, he was last in the Panhandle Derby, which race was not stacked with top contenders.  The winner of that ungraded affair (LAST COUNCIL(AUS)) could not repeat the feat in his next, an allowance.  The Red Bullets can go turfy, so it was not a shock that he took to the surface.  Another with a chance, but not an overlay.