Sir Bear Mile (Bargain Bowl)

I probably sound like a broken record when I say the Bargain Series is thriving. Today’s race the innaugral running of the Bargain Bowl Sir Bear Dirt Mile is about as strong as proof you need, it shows the race options are expanding and it has drawn a nice field of 9 looking to etch their name in history as the first winner of this race. Humility will put a lock on the mile division with a strong showing here and he looks every bit the legitimate 7/5 favorite the oddsmakers have made him. Will that stop me from trying to beat him? Perhaps..

1. Wariuz Dub – Five year old daughter of Dubleo (Southern Halo) just missed by a nose back in February in the Bargie Filly Mile and that is as close as she has come to a series win in 6 series attempts. Her last effort was a nonthreatening fourth in the Gumball mile, ironically she also finished 4^th in the Big City mile so that tells me she really has her work cut out for her here today. 6-1 odds don’t seem like enough given those facts so I am going to find my top selections elsewhere.

2. Back in Bodog – I am not sure if this trainer used started playing poker on Bodog switched to Pokerstars for a bit had some bad luck and went to bodog or if there is some other meaning to this horses name. Either way this 3 year old is a LEGIT bargain with a career record of 7-4-1-1 and even more impressive he has run huge figs in allowance company. Nothing I like more then a lightly raced colt running big figs with an amazing two Derby winners in his pedigree. Honestly, the 17-1 odds baffle me and I really like this horse as a value play.

3. Cry Babies – Another bargain mare and another Hawkz entry I am beginning to see a correlation. Oddly, this one has yet to run in the Bargain Series after 23 career starts but Saturday she will get her chance. She has never routed but is coming off a nice allowance win where she won by 1 ¼ lengths posting an 86 speed figure in the process. Some may like the wild card route debut and good recent form but I am looking for an established runner for my top selection.

4. Spitting Fire – Four year old daughter of Editor’s Note started her career going 2 for 2 but that streak quickly came to and end in her 3^rd race last year’s Bargain Bowl Chance for Delta where she finished a well beaten 7^th. Has not been in good since a nice May allowance win so unless she can run back to that race her trainer (yours truly) likely has little more then an entry in today’s race.

5. Song of the Deaf – Plano’s got an intriguing 3 yr old here that is in good recent form and has run recent speed figures that can be competitive in today’s race. Unfortunately for him he is not going to get an easy lead as he is going to have to contend with speedball Humility so unless the track is really biased towards speed today I am not sure I can picture him hanging on for a check. From a wagering perspective I do think 16-1 are fair odds to take a gamble for those of you seeking a big payout.

6. Bare Whip – Lgbost’s 7 year old ran in the 2006 version of the Bargain Derby finishing a well beaten 5^th but he has had success on the bargain circuit finishing 2^nd in the 2008 Death Valley Classic and Bargain Summer Classic while also finishing ITM several other times. This old warrior has 73 lifetime starts so it would be amazing if he could crank out a big race and since he appears to prefer distances closer to 9 furlongs I am not overly excited about the chances of that happening today.

7. Humility – Foxon’s got the overwhelming 7/5 favorite for today’s race and that status is well earned. This horse has really emerged on the bargain scene in a big way the Gumball Mile was his coming out party when he romped by 3 ½ lengths posting a 102 speed figure in the process. Expect Humility to get loose on the front end and be really hard to catch especially since his primary rival current division leader Slave to Tradition bypassed this race for her Distaff title defense. Usually I don’t bet chalk but this is a legit favorite so be wary.

8. Rugs to Roaches – Completed a 3 year old trifecta in 2008 finishing 1^st in the Ozark, 2^nd in the Derby and 3^rd in the Belmont. Was dead last in last year’s Bargain Classic but he has a good excuse as that distance was clearly too long for him and he seems to prefer a mile distance like he will get today. I am not overly enthused about his chances but someone has to round out the exotics and if he can run back to his September 28^th race he is a strong candidate to do so and is live off of that race.

9. Woftam Star – Four year old son of Kendel Star started his Bargain career the right way winning the 2009 Bronx by a smashing 3 ¼ lengths spoiling Shoeless Greek’s Triple Crown bid. Thus far that has been the peak of his career as he hasn’t found the winner’s circle since that glorious day. Has been a hard knocker but not much more to say or like about his chances today.

Prediction:

Even though I said I would not bet against legitimate favorite Humility I bet against Zenyatta a lot in real life (and suffered the consequences) so will do so here today. Give me #2 Back in Bodog for an upset win as the longest shot on the board. Humility for 2^nd and Rugs to Roaches rounding out the trifecta.

Good luck to everyone and thanks for running in the Bargain Series on the biggest day of the year.