Wide-open Los Angeles Derby Draws 12
This Saturday’s seventh race at California is the $500k Grade 2 Los Angeles Derby, a ten-furlong battle on the firm turf course that looks like the very definition of the term, “wide open”. The pair of co-favorites is listed by the CPU at 5/1, and four others are all at 6/1. Add in a Cinderella-story 20/1 longshot that was claimed for 15k from a maiden race just five starts ago but has become a turf monster since, and you’ve got one heckuva race!
JAGGED STREET is one of the 6/1 crowd, and this First Defence filly tries colts for the first time. The hihosilver trainee has never finished off-the-board in her 11 turf tries, and has a Grade 2 win on her resume. This is her first 10f try and her running style suggests she’ll enjoy the extra distance, but her pedigree suggests that it just might be out of her scope.
LEGENDS OF ROCK has had a fine 3yo campaign, with a Grade 1 win and a pair of Grade 2’s, all at this distance or longer. Trainer simsters4 gave the Rock Hard Ten colt a bit of a rest before his last run, and he looked a bit off while finishing 4th against a solid field of older runners. Improvement off that run would be no surprise and the CPU agrees, placing him among the 6/1 crowd.
LUCKY’S PRINCE B hails from the zturf barn, and goes off at 10/1. This is the stakes debut for the stretch-running Kingmambo colt, but he appears on the improve. This is by far his toughest assignment, but he could be a factor in the final furlong.
PIVOTAL STRIKE is yet another in the 6/1 throng. The dazzler trainee is as consistent as they come; the Pivotal colt has never failed to hit the board in his 12-race career. While he’s only run in one stakes race so far, he ran a good 2nd to one of today’s co-favorites.
KING KAJINSKYHA has spent most of 2010 banging heads with the best of his crop, and was looking like he might come out on top after his July 17 G2 win. Unfortunately, his next three starts yielded no in-the-money finishes. Trainer newastin17 had a decision to make; rest his King Kamehameha colt, or get him an easy spot and try to regain the colt’s mojo? He chose the latter, and that runaway win earned him this spot. Yup, he’s 6/1, too.
WITHERSPOON was an also-ran in graded stakes races this spring, but seems to have improved nicely for cocoabeach after a sabbatical. The Daiwa Major colt has taken two of three short-field allowance races since, all at this distance or longer. Now, it’s time for “take two” in the big arena; at 11/1, he’s got a lot to answer here.
DERHAMM is co-favorite at 5/1, and comes back just three weeks after a miserable run against older in the BB Mile. “He didn’t even try in that big race. The short break doesn’t concern me”, says trainer 2aussie. Before that, the Street Sense colt had a string of impressive runs with those his own age, including three graded-stakes wins.
ROCK GOBLIN comes in here off a string of six consecutive minor-track wins in which he was never asked for his top effort. It’s a given that this astapor trainee by Rock Hard Ten will need a lifetime best effort to compete in this bunch at 22/1.
LIGHT OF HEAVEN is making a late-season charge at elite status for lenny14, with three consecutive strong runs since switching to the classic distances. The North Light colt was flying at ’em in a 12f grade 1 against older last time; however, the 6-horse field was quite a bit light for that level. The CPU recognizes the light field and places him at 14/1.
VALLNORD is the rags-to-riches story; he was claimed a few races back from a 15k MCL by brewers, who decided to take a turf try with the Smarty Jones colt. This went really well, picking off a 40k claim win and two allowance races with solid speed ratings. He just missed in his graded-stakes debut last time, and it would be no surprise to see him outrun his 20/1 odds here.
TEOREEF is a Teofilo colt from the barn of roberto that comes in here after an off-day in the G1 Vicky Derby just three weeks ago. Sometimes he finishes strong, sometimes he just… well… doesn’t. His best speed figures are a bit short of the best in here, and the 14/1 shot will need his career best to get the job done in this bunch.
GPS TO FINISH LINE started 2010 with a nice 3-race win streak including a Grade 2, but was unable to keep it going in the top races throughout the year. He took a short rest late this summer, and came back with a pair of strong minor-stakes wins. Now, the lgbost2yop-trained Henrythenavigator colt takes another try at the bigtime and gets the oddsmaker’s respect at 5/1.
Now, it’s time to get out the tea leaves and try to guess, er, predict the results of this thing:
The first thing I notice is that there won’t exactly be a sprint for the early lead here. The only one with a natural turn of speed is the untested ROCK GOBLIN, which means he could get an easy lead and develop a whole lot of courage in the process. Will he? I have no idea. My sim money is staying in my wallet… However, for the purposes of pure curiosity…
DERHAMM is my choice to find the winner’s circle with his late rush.
VALLNORD has a real chance to pull the big upset from just off the pace.
ROCK GOBLIN should have his way early and could steal this one, but probably will get caught late.