Jolly Summer Cup
It’s time to begin a jolly summer in South Africa, and so it’s time for the Grade I Jolly Summer Cup. Last year’s inaugural running was won by No Price Too High, who is still rated number ten in the division despite being winless since January.
The track would have been delighted to attract a horse rated so highly for its second edition. While the field lacks a runner rated higher than 46th, and only a few runners here have ever won anything higher than a Grade III, the field makes up for it in competitiveness. Five of the horses have been assigned odds of 5-1 or less, and the presumptive favorite didn’t even really want to be here.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 FINAL CAUSE(IRE) (SADLER’S WELLS x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x PULPIT) bred and trained by citycowboyi (Lucky Stables, 9%) Style: S, Odds: 5-1
In late August he beat a small but strong field in the Grade III Snowy Hill and followed that with a huge run against a very impressive Roberto Clemente field. At first glance his most recent race was a step backward as he finished out of the money and three lengths behind Portman’s Perfect, but look closer. He still made a big run against a strong field. He should find this group easier than he’s been facing and, with only 11 starts, is still eligible for rapid improvement. Top jockey helps his cause.
PP 2 BASS CLEF(JPN) (DEEP IMPACT x EL PRADO(IRE) x FAPPIANO) bred by hoghead, trained by newastin6 (Astins Place, 21%) Style: E/P, Odds: 8-1
The Stoners’ Stables dropped this colt into claimers after a one-for-eleven start, and Astin swooped in. After six wins, a second and a third in the colt’s last eight starts, top-notch stable figures it’s time to move their “claimer” into stakes company for the first time. Normally the allowance-to-Grade I is too formidable to consider, but with this colt’s recent record, speed, and connections, he merits a long look.
PP 3 XTRA COSMOPOLITAN(KY) (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x KRIS S. x NIJINSKY II) bred and trained by ejdstable (Ejdstable, 22%), Style: S, Odds: 9-1
The only filly in the race, her record in graded company on firm turf is quite good. She has a first, two seconds, and a third in four starts. Trainer always places his charges carefully and always earns a serious chance. Long odds are mainly due to a poor race last out, but that was on an wet track, to which she’d already shown a dislike. Already has a graded win at 12-1 and a loss by a head at 8-1. That makes 9-1 look like a great value.
PP 4 IRON ISLANDS(ENG) (PIVOTAL(GB) x SADLER’S WELLS x KINGMAMBO) bred and trained by confessor (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 25%) Style: P, Odds: 9-2
Ran off to a wire-to-wire win in a marathon against weaker last time. There is genuine reason to be skeptical of his chances here, despite the short odds. This race may simply be too short for this colt. Since breaking his maiden, he is winless at races under 11 furlongs. On the other hand, Given’s 25% win rate is no fluke. If he thinks, as the next to last one to enter the race, there is a chance, there is a chance.
PP 5 IN EVERY SHADOW(KY) (PURIM x DIESIS(GB) x GREEN DESERT) bred by quickcall, trained by kissnsocal (Flagdown Stables, 14%) Style: P, Odds: 5-1
A little over a year ago he scored a nice Grade I win, and that success has tantalized Flagdown ever since. He’s tried this one in eight graded stakes since, never finishing in the money and losing those races by an average of over 11 lengths. Shadow keeps looking like he wants the class, winning races and posting big numbers, but those successes have come against weaker. We’ll look elsewhere until he can repeat some success in graded company.
PP 6 DEATHSMILESATUSALL(KY) (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x ROBERTO x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) bred and trained by willsyam12 (Willyam13 Stables, 14%) Style: S, Odds: 5-1
Well, isn’t that a pleasant name for a horse. This colt brings some serious form questions into the race. He hasn’t been within ten lengths of a winner in nearly six months, and he hasn’t won on a firm turf course since a year ago last August. A repeat of that race from August 2009 would be a winner here, and he doesn’t have so many races under his saddle (I can’t say “belt.”) that he can’t return to that form. It’s just we haven’t seen any reason to think that return is imminent.
PP 7 LORD OF THE LAND(SAF) (DYNASTY (SAF) x MACHIAVELLIAN x CAERLEON) bred by davem52, trained by misery (The SAF Connection, 14%) Style: E, Odds: 10-1
Another one with very serious form issues. After a terrible race in an overnight Czech stakes (Donny B, how competitive are those Czech stakes?), Lord makes the jump to Grade I. Just a theory here, but the entry came at 3 AM on Wednesday. Did the SAF Connection see a short field and a chance for what were once called Tsunami points? Winless in 2010, it’s hard to see that changing today.
PP 8 NICENE CREED(IRE) (MONTJEU (IRE) x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x NIJINSKY II) bred and trained by mtk76 (Shamrock Stables, 12%) Style: S, Odds: 13-1
Sometimes you get trapped. You change distance or surface and your horse improves, and you say, “This is what he’s good at,” and you forget the other options. At the beginning of this year, Nicene tried a marathon and ran faster than ever and won. Connections naturally kept him going long, and he did well. But maybe it was just maturity that accounted for the improvement. In July they tried a Grade III at today’s distance (and today’s odds) and he responded with a second, but at a lower speed figure. What to make of that? We find out today. Well bred colt just may surprise at the longest price.
PP 9 PORTMAN’S PERFECT(KY) (PLEASANTLY PERFECT x SADLER’S WELLS x IRISH RIVER(FR)) bred and trained by nijinsky4 (My4ever Stables, 16%) Style: S, Odds: 3-1*
Favorite didn’t even really want to be here. When the stable learned they would not crack the field for the huge purse in Japan’s marathon, they “settled” for this race. The odd thing about that is that they have been concentrating on this distance ever since he won the Grade I Windy City a year ago last August. Though that was his last graded win, he’s been consistently in the money and competitive against stronger fields than this. Winner of nearly $7 million, he may have accidently fallen into a win here.
What a race call may sound like:
It’s post time…..the horses have reached the starting gate…..two more, they’re waiting like the pros they are…one more to load….Portman’s Perfect goes in…..They’re all in line….They’re racing….It’s a good start for all, and Bass Clef hustles out to an early lead. He’s joined by In Every Shadow and Iron Islands drops down to the rail, just off the leaders. Xtra Cosmopolitan is next, with Deathsmilesatusall right on her shoulder. Final Cause hugs the rail, just ahead of Portman’s Perfect, and Nicene Creed can see them all, four lengths from the lead…
Ok, it might start like that. My guess for a finish:
Final Cause / Portman’s Perfect / Xtra Cosmopolitan