G3 Red Bird Handicap
Welcome all to sunny Kentucky for the main race on the card – the $150,000 G3 Red Bird Handicap on turf at 9f. Conditions are fine and the track as come up perfect.
What a race this should be with five or six genuine chances. I have tried to look at all runners both in a positive and negative manner. This is how they should settle after the break…
Torger and Pillars Of Kings should fight for the lead with Torger most likely as the mule. Lords Of Discipline, Suzy’s Awesome, Validate Destiny and Publik Causeway will sit off them. Gokstad will follow them closely with Silverwinds following her. Paddle Steamer will be next with Erendira Haack will drop out the back.
How will they finish? Lets take a more detailed look at each runner then attempt to write the conclusion….
9/2 – Paddle Steamer – (Green Desert X Miswaki X Unfuwain)
Trainer foxon5 sends out this 9/2 equal second favourite, a 4yo mare by Green Desert. Copped a bounce last time out when sixteen lengths off in the G1 Liz Taylor at 10f on yielding turf. Over 12 months winless and screaming for an allowance trip to regain confidence. A closer look at her PP’s reveal that she requires at least 12f and up as she consistently closes late and simply runs out of ground. Her only run above 10.5f was early on when beaten by a crack field in Oaks de English – breeding indicated she may take some time to develop and could excuse her for that run. This trip will again be far too short and would pay to see her at 12f in allowance company next time out. Only positive for her chances would be that her trainer knows what they are doing with fantastic winning percentages.
10/1 – Lords Of Discipline – (Deep Impact X Seeking The Gold X Nijinsky II)
So much to like about this 4yo mare. Record on turf reads 11/5-2-4, she won last time out in an open allowance by over 3 lengths in career best run, 9f suits her perfectly, breeding screams turf classic – route and she should sit just off the leader and peel off in the stretch. Negative is that she has never run in a stakes race and may not perform to standard. Bounce may also be looming after five good runs this year from five races. I will say she is a chance baring a bounce and providing she handles the pressure of stakes racing. Open allowance win was super last time out and if she reproduces that run she is a chance.
4/1 – Suzy’s Awesome – (Awesome Again X Danzig X Nijinsky II)
4yo mare in good form placing in her last 4 runs – all at graded level. Ran 2nd last time out in G3 company at 9f when narrowly missing the win by less than a length and nailing a 110 SP in doing so. Has raced exclusively in graded company this year with just the one win, out of a three time G1 winning mare, Suzy’s Awesome will take up a position a few lengths off the lead and look to grind away in the stretch. Has been brought over from Japan for this but is coming off a good 4 week break so will be fresh. As the 4/1 favourite, she will put in a honest effort and has local gun Givens on board.
27/1 – Torger – (Worldly Manner X A.P. Indy X Malagra)
8yo mare with as much chance in this as me winning the lottery. This will be the mare’s second race for the stable after placing in an open allowance first up when coming from another stable after being claimed. Looks likely to be the mule for the field as she will most likely lead and be use to keep an honest pace in the race. Ungraded stakes winner back in 2007 and looking to recapture that form, she is past her prime and ready to be used for breeding.
15/1 – Erendira Haack – (Orotorio X Irish River X Blushing Groom)
Good lead in with allowance win in minimal field last time out but certainly looks a long way out of her depth in this race. Healthy turf record of 31/6-8-9 and a good allowance horse, this 5yo mare from the Otto Haack stables must gain 3 or 4 lengths to get a cheque here. Positives are that the trainer certainly knows what they are doing with a great winning ratio of over 22%. Negatives are form and performed poorly in one and only ungraded stakes attempt when over 14 lengths off the winner. Will get back towards the rear of the field in the run and will attempt to slowly work her way forward. Prefer others…
9/1 – Silverwinds – (Vindication X Dynaformer X Summer Squall)
5yo mare brought here today by Vindication who will have to run the race of her life to get a cheque. Trainer Silverado has done a great job with this mare’s race placement with just the one run this year against a field with over 10 runners. Has just the one stakes win to list on her CV and she looks most prominent in allowance company with 3 wins this year. Can either lead or take up a forward position but will be under massive pressure in the stretch and doesn’t give any indication that she will be able to hold out the late swoopers. Prefer others…
5/1 – Gokstad – (Distorted Humor X A.P. Indy X Deputy Minister)
5/1 chance sent out by tmachine, this 4yo mare looks well placed here after showing no appreciation for the extra 2f last time out. Will crack the 1 million mark if successful this weekend and with the drop back to 9f, she certainly looks a chance. Posted career equal best 111 SP two races back when a ½ length 2nd place in an ungraded stakes and the race before that was a standout with a 3rd place in G2 company when closing late at 8f. Exceptional dirt record with 3 wins, 2 seconds and a 3rd placing from 6 starts proving she is versatile and that versatility could see her reproducing her run of two starts back and being in this late. Will sit mid-field in the run and be in the mix when the winner looms.
9/2 – Publik Causeway – (Giant’s Causeway X Seeking The Gold X Northern Dancer)
5yo mare with exceptional breeding and a modest racing record. Last three runs have all been at the trip and she handles it nicely. 9/2 may be a little too short for my liking unless she can reproduce her ungraded stakes winning run two starts back when posting a 109 SP and winning by over 2 lengths. That win was in a sub 1:48 time and I feel she would need to run that here to account for others. Racing pattern will see her taking a handy sit a few off Pillars Of Kings and Torger and look to run them down late. Trainer is exceptional with a winning average better than 26% – so they certainly know what they are doing. Certainly not out of it and would be surprised to see her not get a cheque.
5/1 – Pillars Of Kings – (Flying Spur X Forestry X Seeking The Gold)
Trainer has done an outstanding job after claiming this 5yo mare 13 starts back. Has since nailed 9 wins and will run in graded company for the first time this week. Chances are hard to determine as she will battle for the lead with Torger in which case she may just steal it out front as long as the battle is not too severe. No doubt that she must run out of her skin but if she reproduces her run of three starts back where she ran a career best 114 SP to win an open allowance, she will certainly be in it. Again, her trainer has set her perfectly after winning at this track last time out and if she has come up SHARP for this week – look out! Ran into two good horses before that last run when 3rd in ungraded stakes and was disappointing but I will go out on a limb and say that this mare may just cause a boil over if conditions are right.
9/1 – Validate Destiny – (Dubai Destination X Dixie Brass X Fast Play)
Last three runs have been great and this race looks perfect for her. Won an NW4L, then nailed an open allowance field and took the next step last time out winning a ungraded stakes race in a small field. 4 runs at 9f for 3 wins and one win from one start at the track and distance all indicate that she could also cause hassles for some of the better credentialed runners. Had a bad start to the year but has since turned it around and certainly deserves a shot at proving herself this weekend. Should sit just off the leader and look to grind on past in the stretch whilst trying to repel the advances of the swoopers late. I rate her a good chance if she can take up a good spot, however she has won her last three and trainer must be wondering when the bubble will burst….
So, my predicted finishing order is….
The Trifecta – Gokstad to win just ahead of Suzy’s Awesome and Pillars Of Kings.
Also rans – Publik Causeway, Lords Of Discipline, Validate Destiny, Paddle Steamer, Silverwinds, Erendira Haack and Torger a long way back…..
Lets see how it goes – good luck to all and may your stead be nimble…..