So You Want to Win a Breeder’s Bowl?
So you want to win a Breeder’s Bowl? Join the club, it is probably the 2nd most coveted sim accomplishment after winning a Triple Crown race. If you believe history is doomed to repeat itself what can we take away from the 2010 edition of the Breeder’s Bowl?
Lesson #1 – Hire a Harzheim.
The Harzheims had a Breeder’s Bowl for the ages with P Harzheim winning an amazing four Breeder’s Bowl races. His relative H Harzheim was no slouch either finishing with three wins himself including the big daddy The Breeder’s Bowl Classic. Some players claim jockeys do not matter much and this is not exactly statistical proof either way but it sure was a banner day for the Harzheim’s.
Lesson #2 – Light prepping is OVER RATED
Eleven of 2010’s Breeder’s Bowl winners ran in graded races their race right before the big dance. The remaining 3 winner’s all prepped in an open stakes, so no horses prepped with an allowance conditioner found glory. That is not to say that strategy can’t work but it does not appear necessary.
Lesson #3 – 3 YR olds of both sexes can win and in fact dominate
Three year olds thrived in the 2010 Breeder’s Bowl winning 6 of 10 events open to them. If you have a good three yr old in 2011 have no fear and in fact rejoice. Three year olds are at no disadvantage against older and fair quite well Breeder’s Bowl day. I have noticed this trend over my few years of sim playing and I do not believe it is an anomaly
Lesson #4 – If your not 3 be lightly raced and no more then 5
The 4 older then 3 yr old winner’s and no more then 34 lifetime races going in to the Breeder’s Bowl with an average of 24. Particularly intriguing is 5 year old Strike When Ready the Turf sprint winner who was an extremely lightly raced 5 year old with just 23 lifetime races.
Lesson #5 – Top Sires are worth the cost
Top flight Sunday sires A.P. Indy (2 wins) and Montjeu (2 wins) both had stellar days on the big stage. Fellow Sunday sires Unbridled’s Song, Awesome Again, Distorted Humor, and now deceased El Prado also scored wins on the day.
Lesson #6 – Non Sunday sires can also win on the big day
Big wins by solid value sires who regularly open were scored by Tiznow, Tapit, and More than Ready. As further proof that you can get a big runner by extreme value sires Bertrando, T.M Opera O, and Graeme Hall all had offspring who scored big wins.
Lesson #7 – If you want to win a Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile race you need to have 6 or 7 races going into the Breeder’s Bowl.
Lightly raced horses likely have a harder time gaining entry or lack the pts necessary to make the competitive field. That is quite a workload however so could explain why many top juveniles fail to carry their form into their 3 yr old campaigns.
Lesson #8 – Good form is ESSENTIAL
Nearly all of the winners displayed excellent current form with strong races the race before the Breeder’s Bowl. None of the winners were horses that coasted to the big day off of early season form alone.
Lesson #9 – It is nice if an offspring of your sire wins the real life equivalent of a Breeder’s Bowl race
This lesson is a bit of a stretch but I did find it interesting that both in real life and the sim offspring of A.P Indy (The Marathon) and Awesome Again (Dirt Juvy Fillies) won those races in the same year. Coincidence? Probably…
Lesson #10 – Take this with a grain of salt
It is just a one year limited sample and you don’t have to be a test tube inspired offspring of Kaif to realize that while they are interesting observations they may be rendered meaningless in 2011.
Congratulations again to all of the Breeder’s Bowl winners!
Data Set:
F&M Turf – Ketaring – 3yr old (El prado)
Prep: Off a G1 win
Form Going in: Excellent
P Harzheim
Turf – Seventh Sense 3 yr old (Montjeu)
Prep: 5th well beaten in Arc
Form: Very off previous two (off track could be excuse for one)
P Harzheim
Turf Sprint – Strike When Ready (More than Ready) – 5yr old (lightly raced just 23 lifetime races going in)
Prep: 3rd in a G2
Form: Good
Jock: H Harzheim
Turf Mile – Dooty Da Doo (T.M. Opera O) – 3 yr old
Prep: Off a G2 win
Form: Excellent
Jock: O Osbourne
Marathon – COYOTE SMUGGLER (AP Indy) -5 yr old (30 races going into BB)
Prep: G3 win
Form: Excellent
Jock: K Ledwith
Breeders’ Bowl Sprint – PINCHINGDALE 52.70 Graeme Hall 3 yr old colt
Prep: 2nd in an open stakes
Form: Ok
Jock: O A Haack
Breeders’ Bowl F&M Sprint – Extended Power – 3 yr old Unbridled’s Song
Prep: G2 win
Form: Excellent
Jock: A Rolling
Dirt Mile- THE BEGGAR KING – 3 yr old Tiznow
Prep: Open stakes win
Form: Excellent
Jock: J Caves
Distaff – SKIDMORE INDY – AP Indy – 5 yr old (34 lifetime races prior)
Prep: 3rd in a G1
Form: Off but improving
Jock: P Harzheim
Classic- DISTORTED STORM – Distorted Humor – 4 yr old (21 lifetime races)
Prep: 2nd in a G2
Form: Ok
H Harzheim
2 yr old races:
Filly Juvy Turf – SJ’s Carsonado – Bertrando 7 races going into BB-
Form: Excellent of an open stakes win
O A Haack Jock
Juvy Turf – THE SEVEN SEAS – Montjeu – 7 races going into BB
Form: Decent 4th in a G2 got his bounce out of the way
P Harzheim Jock
Juvy filly dirt – LINDY HOP – Awesome Again
Form: Good
Prep: g2 win – 6 going into the BB
Jock: D Evans
Juvy dirt – OPEN PIT TED- Tapit – 6 going into the BB
Form: Ok
Prep: 3rd in a G1
Jock: H Harzheim