Saint Cloud G1 – 2yo’s Going Long!
The feature race at France this week is an interesting one; a ten-furlong turf test for 2yo’s. The Grade 1 Saint Cloud carries a big $500,000 purse and has drawn a full field of 11 colts and 3 fillies. Only four of these fine runners have any experience at 9f or longer, and none have tried 10f. This puts an emphasis on pedigree for those who dare to handicap this field.
K. M. RED ROCKER (ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x RED RANSOM x CAERLEON) will go from the rail at 9/1. The fusaichi trainee has run well in all four of his starts, with three wins and a place including two G3 wins for a nice $259k bankroll. His one loss was at the hands of Blast Offf, who just missed the win last week in the BB Juvenile Turf. His highest speed rating was in his one 2-turn try, and his pedigree suggests that the ten furlongs should be within his reach.
PRIORITY MAIL (CAPE CROSS (IRE) x SMARTY JONES x WILD AGAIN) is a 15/1 shot from the super5 stable with a very balanced pedigree. His sire has passed on a lot of turf-route abilty, but his damsire and many elsewhere in his pedigree have had success producing dirt runners. He has run well in several near-misses on the turf but looks to be a bit shy of the top runners in here.
NEEDLEINTHEPADDOCK (HARADASUN (AUS) x FANTASTIC LIGHT x DANEHILL) is a thebigm trainee who has improved nicely with each route effort, but makes his stakes debut here and goes off at 12/1. He has plenty of route-runner in his pedigree, though 10f might be just a bit out of his expected range.
DAN MISSES ML (DANSILI (GB) x MISWAKI x KRIS S.) is a xanthu3-trained filly who will need to pick up her speed ratings quite a bit, and also prove that the dam’s side of her pedigree is the dominant side. Her sire has tended to produce sprinters, but her mommy’s side has a good bit of distance tendancy to it. She goes off at 13/1.
NEW JONESTOWN (NEW APPROACH (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD x SEATTLE DANCER) is a 21/1 longshot trained by sharood, who will have to be a bit of a trainer/magician to get his speedy colt to successfully negotiate ten furlongs against this bunch. His pedigree sceams “miler”, and his stakes-winning Sim dam did much of her winning at 7 furlongs. The speed ratings he has earned thus far also fall quite a bit short of what will be needed here.
JOYOUS STORM (KITTEN’S JOY x STORMY ATLANTIC x FUSAICHI PEGASUS) goes off at 11/1 for trainer ernie. He has won three in a row, the last two being graded stakes. However, the winner of nearly $300k could be trying a distance that his pedigree just won’t allow, with the dam’s side leaning towards brilliant sprint speed. His last speed was strong, though; can he beat his pedigree?
SUFFERTHORN (MR. SIDNEY x DANZIG x SEATTLE SLEW) has a lot to overcome, with his sire being heavily sprint-oriented. The 16/1 longshot is trained by stupor1, who has already gotten his colt to run well at 9.5f, in a solid win vs. a minor-stakes field last out. However, this field is a leap up in class, and the colt’s speed ratings will need to be exceeded by quite a bit.
LUCKY’S WOOGSBY (DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x STORM CAT x A.P. INDY) has what appears to be a heavily dirt-oriented pedigree on the dam’s side, but a strong turf sire. So far, it appears that the “turf side” has proven dominant, especially once he tried two turns. The heavenly1 trainee goes off at 7/1 off of his powerful 9-furlong win last out in a Grade 3, and his speeds since going to 2 turns have been excellent.
BEATSANEMPTYSTALL (MEDICEAN (GB) x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x PLEASANT COLONY) is the 9/2 betting favorite, and has beaten that empty stall quite handily, with three wins and a pair of 2nd-place runs in his five starts. He has quite a bit to prove, however; the sjmeola2 trainee has never been beyond 7 furlongs. His pedigree says that he can certainly do it, and his speeds are plenty fast, but three extra furlongs is a big chunk of distance to deal with in a field as strong of this.
NORTHERN TOWN (NORTHERN METEOR (AUS) x DYNAFORMER x CARSON CITY) is a filly who has dominated in both of her runs thus far, but is trying much tougher here. Her sire is sprint-oriented, but the dam’s side is much more 2-turn oriented; her game dam did her best work at distance. Mixed signals on this 11/1 shot trained by paddy.
INCAL (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x POWERSCOURT (GB) x MISWAKI) goes off at 10/1 for super15. There is plenty of distance in the pedigree, but he’s been falling a little short in graded-stakes racing thus far. Maybe the extra distance will help here, but he wasn’t actually gaining at the end of a flat mile last time out.
SAMMY ZABEEL RUN (ZABEEL(NZ) x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x LYPHARD) is well-regarded at 7/1 by the CPU, and the samwich77 trainee has a good bit of distance on both sides of his pedigree to go with his 3 wins in 4 career tries. He was coming on late in his graded-stakes debut last out, and the extra quarter-mile could be right up this guy’s alley. Just a little improvement in the speed-rating department could make him very tough to beat.
RIDING GIANTS (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x GULCH x SEATTLE SLEW) has a pair of full-brothers in trainer super30‘s army of stables. One of them is a millionaire sprinter who runs well on both surfaces, and the other is an allowance-level dirt miler. However, this colt has shown solid ability 2-turning on the grass. Confused yet? I am… Anyway, he goes off at 8/1 here, and needs only a little improvement to contend.
SHIELD AND SWORD (MEDAGLIA D’ORO x KINGMAMBO x SADLER’S WELLS) goes off at 19/1 for the tejanorun barn, and the filly will need marked improvement to make a dent in this bunch. She was tried first the surface that best matched her pedigree, dirt. When that flopped, she was tried on the sod where she surprised his connections with strong runs. This field is much tougher than any she’s faced, though.
Out comes the dusty ol’ crystal ball…
SAMMY JABEEL RUN should relish the extra real estate.
K. M. RED ROCKER has best chance to beat the top one.
BEATSANEMPTYSTALL probably has enough to hold off the rest.
Good luck at the races!