Black Type Bugler

eHorseracing.com’s Official Online News Source

Black Type Bugler

eHorseracing.com’s Official Online News Source

Breeders Bowl Turf (written by Roxyken)

The Breeders’ Bowl Turf has the second highest purse of all the Bowl races with a dandy $3,000,000. on the line.  The purse amount was raised from the original $2 million in 2006 and the race is rich with history.

THE HISTORICAL PAST

The Turf has been raced since 1998 and is one of the longest run graded races on the sim.   The Bowl races are returning to Kentucky for the first time since 2006 and this will be the fourth time the race makes a stop in the state.  

The record speed for the 12 furlong Turf is 120 and that was established back in 2002 by Project Thor.  Thor finished 2nd in the same race the year before and competed in 98 career races and amassed 23 wins.

The winner of the first ever Turf race was Thor’s From Project who had the lowest speed by far in this event recording a speed of 83.  But the speed numbers were probably low for everyone in the “hay day” of the game.  Thor would later prove to be a much better runner on the dirt.

Very ironic how the slowest speed and fastest speed horses have very similar names.  I have not been able to make a connection between the two, however, I have a feeling one exists.

The average winning speed has been 110.  Throwing out the lowest speed of 83 raises the average to 110.  

The Turf has always been held on a firm track.

Jockey F. Gossett has won this race 4 times.  No other jockey has more than one win in this event.

Horseshoe Bay has competed four times in Breeders’ Bowl races, three times were in this race.  He won in consecutive years of 2005 and 2006.  In 2006 he beat Lex Luther.  The following year, Lex Luther would get his revenge by winning with Horseshoe Bay finishing 3rd.

HALL OF FAME

The Breeders’ Bowl Turf event has a history of producing horses that would go onto the prestigious Hall of Fame.   Out of 12 races, 6 winners would go onto be installed in the Hall (note:  Other winners may still be racing).  

Hall of fame members include:

Dusty Dance

Joe Cayenne

Allied Assault

Sunnybank Memorial

Horshoe Bay

Lex Luther

Is it possible that this years race will find another Hall of Fame candidate?  Very possible.  Now on to the field:

THE ENTRANTS

A quick note before proceeding.  You will notice coverage on some horses longer than others.  I have attempted to obtain interviews with each trainer through the bulletin boards, thus the longer review.

1.  FARADAY CAGE   23-1

Trained by:  SKUNKMASTE

Breeding:  HENRYTHENAVIGATOR x REDOUTE’S CHOICE x MISWAKI

Jockey:  MCCLENDON (25% WIN)

Faraday Cage is a young 3 year old who has 7 route starts on the grass under his belt and a record of 4-2-0.   Lifetime he has won 5 times in 9 starts which include a trio of graded race victories.  He likes to run in the middle of the pack and four of his last five starts had speeds in excess of 100, with 111 being the top in the Owner’s Stakes (G1, 12f).

Trainer Skunkmaste is part of the Skunkbarn Stables which has a record of producing winners, winning over 17% of the stable’s starts and a commendable 44% finish in the money.   Skunkmaste was asked if making it into the Breeders’ Turf was a surprise.  The answer… “We’ve been pointing him towards this race since he won the G2 Dante’s Inferno.”   Faraday rocketed through the 100-speed level for the first time, hitting 106.

Continuing, Skunkmaste stated “When he did it again in the Seventh King Eddie our confidence grew. When he trounced another in his first G1 win we took dead aim at this race. He’s followed a schedule that some pretty nice SIM turf horses of the past have traveled and he’s fared rather well.”  The G1 Skunkmaste alluded to was the Owner’s Stakes, winning easily by 4.

So we just had to ask how the horses name came about.  Skunkmaste had no trouble in educating this reporter “Faraday Cage was inspired by potential threats of EMPs or electromagnetic pulses. A Faraday Cage when constructed sufficiently will protect anything that is driven by electronics or circuit. E.g. you computer, cell phone etc. Countertop microwaves are the most widely used but little known Faraday Cages. The metal mesh you see on the outside door or panel is not there for visual aesthetics but is a protective barrier disrupting microwaves from leaving the unit.”  

You learn something new every day, so getting back on the serious track, Skunkemaste was asked what horses are of special concern in this race.  “Carnival of Love is riding a three graded race win streak so he’s the one to beat, but we feel he ran his best race last May and may have lost a step on the firm turf. We’ll go better on firm ground and believe we have a 115 or 116 in our horse. If anyone can run faster than that then congrats to them.”  

Faraday Cage looks like he has a nice long rewarding career before him.  In his last start, the Ark de Comicdog, Faraday did finish second behind Carnival of Love, missing by 4 strides and reports out of the stable are that he was short of being sharp for that race.   If Faraday comes up sharp this time, this race could be all his.

2.  MONTE YOUN  7-1

Trained by:  MONTE1

Breeding:  DOYOUN x SELKIRK x SWORD DANCE

Jockey:  ISRAEL (12% WIN)

Monte Youn when compared to other entrants is a senior citizen.  He’s 10 year old and still producing results.  As a two year old (back in 2002) he appeared in only three races.  He was put out to Pasteur only to return in 2008 and race brilliantly.  In 28 career races, he’s left purse money on the table only twice.  Of his 11 lifetime wins, 5 have come in graded races.   This old man hasn’t put in a sub-100 speed race since April of 2008 and he loves to run on the lead.  Over his last five starts, his average speed has been just a shade over 107, not bad for a senior.

As trainer Monte1 points out, “..he has been awesome all year”  which is supported by his 7 starts this season and a record of 3-1-3.  But can a 10 year old actually win such a prestigious race?  When asked, Monte1 stated “If he runs his race he wins.  There is some other speed in the race, but Monte Youn has always been the speed of the speed.  If he gets away by 5 or more its over.”

Monte1 is no strange to the Breeders’ Bowl races either.  A number of years back his entrant Polish Monte finished second in the juvenile division.  As with many of Monte1’s other horses, this entrant also contains the trademark “Monte” within its name which is consistent with all the stables bred horses.  When asked where Monte Youn will be three years from now, Monte1 joking answers “mandatory retirement”.

When asked what horses in the field that trainer Monte1 is most concerned about the answer is a quick Proud Souls.  Monte1 states “That three legged mule (and you can tell him i said that) Proud Souls is the only other true speed, and I would prefer my horse to have an easy lead”.  Quite the comment.  Looking back, I do not see where these two horses have raced each other before.  This could turn out to be interesting.

Monte Youn loves the lead but may find it difficult to get the 5 length advantage his trainer hopes for.  

3.  PROUD SOULS   6-1

Trained by:  DESPERADO3

Breeding:  AWESOME AGAIN x A.P. INDY x NORTHERN DANCER

Jockey:  GIVINS (26%)

In his last start, Proud Souls finished second behind Future Dream in the Canada Turf but did outrun Title Defense and I Don’t Stutter.  He belongs to the Deperado Stables which has won nearly 20% of all starts and has been in the money over 49% of the time.  A definite solid connection for a solid horse.

Proud Souls has won 9 of 19 turf races and has only one race with a speed below 100 on the grass.  Five of these wins were at the graded level where he wired the field.

This five year old will want to grab the lead and not let go.  He ran in the Turf last year and was able to get the lead.  However, Proud Souls was not able to fend off a pair of late runners and managed to hold on and finish third as the co-favorite.  

In the morning line, Proud Souls is again this year pegged as the co-favorite.  He is in sharp form averaging a speed of over 108 in his last 5 starts.   There are several horses that will want the lead and Proud Souls will need to put them in there place early on and keep something in the tank to outrun the late runners and he has the talent to do so.

4.  FUTURE DREAM  7-1

Trained by:  KEVOMAN2

Breeding:  A. P. INDY x SADLER’S WELLS x NIJINSKY II

Jockey:  SMALL  (31% WIN)

Future Dream has a near perfect record on the turf being in the money 14 times in 15 starts.  He is bred of the game dam True Dream for which Trainer Kevoman2 has also partially named this colt.  True Dream was a runner in the 2008 Breeders’ Bowl Turf Distaff where she finished second.  

Future Dream has won 8 of his starts which includes a pair of graded races.  Future did not start racing at the graded level until this past May.  Kevoman2 admits to being a bit surprised that his horse made it to the race stating “The horse never really hit his stride until this summer so to make it this far is one hell of an achievement.”   But will he win the race?  It is a tough field and Kevoman2  stated “You can never be confident of winning a BB race but the horse seems to be improving with every run and ran out a comfortable winner in his last race the G1 Canada Turf.”.  In the Canada Turf, Furture Dreams beat out both Proud Souls, Title Defense and I Don’t Stutter who have entered this race.  

So I asked if Future Dream has a real chance to win this race.  Trainer Kevoman2 got serious about his entrant saying “If I was afraid of any horse in this race I would scratch and go elsewhere. All 14 runners deserve their place in the line-up and they’re all in with a chance!

Kevoman2 has connections with the Kevoman Stables, a powerhouse entity on the sim-circuit with a winning percentage over 20% and horses in the money a startling 52% of the time.  Added to this is Hall of Famer Rain God, who finished 2nd in a Breeders’ Bowl race.  Mr Devious is a two time Breeders’ Bowl winner, also a past stable runner.  

Future Dream likes to run near the front, has averaged a speed of 109 over his last five starts and has the support of the Kevoman Stables empire, which has a history of making the right calls.  This runner could prove to be another right call.

5.  FUSAICHI ZOMBIE  19-1  

Trained by: ZZOMBIE 

Breeding:  SPECIAL WEEK x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x NIJINSKY II

Jockey:  H. HARZHEIM (30% WIN)

Fusaichi Zombie is bred out of great dam A Good One, which wasn’t a good one at all.  She won one race in 27 starts, but fortunately that did not travel through the gene line as Fusaichi has won 7 times in 14 races.

Five of his races the he won were in graded events and he comes in to this race after finishing 7th  with a speed of 98 in the Ark De ComicDog where he lost to Carnival of Love and Faraday Cage, both who are runners in this race which finished first and second respectfully.

Fusaichi has three races to date going 12 furlongs, two of which he won with speeds of 104 and 109 by leading the race.  These two were rare as Fusaichi usually sits off the pace and stalks the leaders.  There are handful of early runners in this race, so I don’t think he’ll be out on the lead this time.  

I’m concerned with his performance in the Ark De ComicDog which was run on the yielding track, however he has a history of performing well on the off-track.  His previous race in the Boston Derby (9f) also found Fusaichi finishing 7th and he may find a decent running spot early on, I don’t think he’ll be around in the end.

6.  GRAND BALL  13-1  

Trained by:  POINTBLANK

Breeding:  DYNAFORMER x NORTHERN DANCER x SECRETARIAT

Jockey:  WHISPER  (26% WIN)

Career-wise, Grand Ball has finished first or second 11 times in the 15 turf races he has competed in.  From March through June of this racing season, Grand Ball won three consecutive graded races and set his career best in the Sandy Ray Handicap (12f) with a speed of 113.

Grand Ball likes to hide out in the middle of the field and most likely will settle there in this big event.  In his last race, the Classic Turf, Grand came up short finishing 2nd in a field of four.  He fell nearly a dozen strides behind which became too much of a deficit to make up as he was three back at the wire.

Although Grand Ball likes to run in mid-field in the early going, he could find himself in trouble if the speedsters get away from him.  History has shown that Grand Ball has not won a race where he is eight lengths or more behind at the halfway marker.  There is a good deal of speed in this race which could put Grand Ball’s chances in jeopardy.  This doesn’t sit well with me.

7.  TITLE DEFENSE  7-1

Trained by:  FUTURESTAR

Breeding:  AWESOME AGAIN x KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT

Jockey:  GARDNER (24% WIN)

Title Defense seems a very appropriate name for this 4 year old.  The Breeders’ Bowl Turf title is on the line and this horse will be defending the title as he was last years winner of the event with a speed of 114 and by nearly 3 lengths.  Title has won 11 turf starts in his 22 appearances on the grass, with 10 of these being graded race victories.  

After winning last years race, it’s no surprise to see Title Defense running once again.  In fact, trainer Futurestar confirms this fact  “This race was always in the plans.  I feel he is one of the greatest turf horses in sim history, and his record/earnings bear that out.”  The above stated record supports that comment, along with over $10.5 million in earnings.  

Over his last 4 starts, Title appears to be off his game.  He has finished third once and off the board the other starts.  When asked about this, Futurestar stated “Although his form has gotten sketchy lately, there are some reasons for that (I hope), and he was always going to attempt a second consecutive BB Turf win.”

Pressing a bit further, and concerned about Title Defense’s current form, I asked Futurestar how he thought his boy would fair in this race.  His replied “Last year, I was extremely confident, as he was entering the race exactly the way I wanted.  This year, I’m not so sure… The year started off in fine fashion, with him winning the big Dubai race and a couple big money races at 10f.  But after that, things sort of went downhill.  Part of that is my fault, as I went chasing some big pots going distances other than his favorite (12f).  I stepped him back to that distance two races back, and it was a step in the right direction.  But his last race was extremely disappointing.  I didn’t want him to peak in that spot, but a useful race similar to last year (a solid second in the same race) would have been nice.  I can only hope it was that he didn’t appreciate the yielding turf, and not that he is on downturn.  He’s almost 5 years old, and that’s something you always have to worry about.  Obviously, on his best form, he has a huge shot.  If he doesn’t improve off his last few though, then he’s in trouble.”

Title Defense is bred out of Dangerous Reward, a mare that has already bred three graded winners, including Moldavia whom trainer Futurestar also owns and  indicated would be running in the Distaff.  

The horse that concerns the trainer the most in this race is Future Dream.  “I think he’s getting better with every start, and is coming into the race the right way.” Stated Futurestar.  Future Dream won the Canada Turf in his last start where Title Defense finished a further back 5th.

Title Defense has been in a bit of a rut lately, but has had a successful career and looks like a future Hall of Famer.  Cannot be ruled out.  

8.  SEVENTH SENSE  20-1

Trained by:  RAPT

Breeding:  MONTJEU x KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY II

Jockey:  P. HARZHEIM  (32% WIN)  

In 11 lifetime starts, Seventh Sense has recorded a record of 5-2-0.  He ran in the Vase of Chester (13f), his first graded start in May of this year, in which he won rather easily.  He followed this up with a pair of G1 races at 12f which he also won, highlighted with a career best speed in the Irish Derby of 112.

That would create a win streak of three graded races which would end in the July running of the Owner’s Stakes in which Faraday Cage would run him down in his attempt to wire the field.  

Seventh Sense would again try to gallop away from the field in September but got caught well before the ¾ pole and finished a well back 6th.  Most recently, he finished 5th in the Ark De ComicDog losing out to foes Carnival of Love and Faraday Cage (once again).

Running just off the leaders seems to be the best chance for Seventh to be successful in this race.  I think any attempt to get the lead would be disastrous as I do not believe he will have the stamina to fight off the others who like the lead and then be strong enough to fend off the late runners.

9.  CARNIVAL OF LOVE  6-1

Trained by:  SUPER15

Breeding:  GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x KINGMAMBO x DANZIG

Jockey:  WU  (28% WIN)

Carnival of Love is making his second consecutive appearance in the Turf, a race that he finished 4th in last year some 8 strides back with a speed of 107.  He comes off a win in this years Ark De ComicDog, a race that he beat the likes of Faraday Cage, Fusaichi Zombie, Seventh Sense, Creek Mambo and Crusading Enforcer, all entrants in this years race.  

Carnival has won 10 of 23 career starts, 8 of which have been graded races.  He looks to be in the running for Horse of the year this season as he has won 5 graded races this season with a pair of places in 9 starts.  He squares off in this tough race by putting a 3-race win streak on the line.  Over his last five starts he has averaged a speed of over 105.  

  

I like the horses name, so naturally had to inquire of trainer Super15 on the origins of it.  “He is actually named after an Australian Shiraz made by Sparky & Sarah Marquis and Molly Dooker Wines” stated Super15.

Expect to see Carnival of Love running near the rear of the field as he never runs on the lead.  This chestnut colt can make up 15 lengths or more late in the race and he can run you over if you don’t watch out.  Super15 commented that he couldn’t wait for the stretch run and I can see why.  Asked which horses concern him the most, Super15 skirted the answer a bit stating “Crusading Enforcer & Title Defense are the other big guns in the race but I don’t think I would trade either of them for Carnival of Love”.  That’s quite a bit of confidence in this strong horse.

As noted at the start of this horses review, Carnival did win this years running of the Ark De ComicDog, but he also won the same race last year.  Hopefully, he won’t follow up this year’s running of the Turf with another 4th place finish.

10.  I DON’T STUTTER  11-1

Trained by:  HOFFHEARTS

Breeding:  KINGMAMBO x SADLER’S WELLS x SHIRELY HEIGHTS

Jockey:  GOSSETT (WIN 29%)  

I Don’t Stutter is a seasoned stakes runner who has appeared in 17 races with a record of 2-4-2.  He made his second consecutive appearance in the Canada Turf, which has been one of the historical prep races leading into the Turf.  Last year he finished third and bypassed the Turf.  This year, I Don’t Stutter finished 6th and behind several other entrants in this weekends race. 

This years Canada Turf was on a yielding surface and this horse has not found a love for the wet surface.  Back in August he finished a close second behind Carnival of Love beaten by ½ length and a speed of 104.

As a 6 year old, I Don’t Stutter rarely puts in speeds below 100 and this past winter he set his two highest ones at 117 and 116 both at 13 furlongs.   The horse will be one of the trailers in the early going and he can bully his way into contention late in the race.  

Considering the 17 graded starts he has had lifetime he only has two wins for his efforts.  There’s a speed war that will probably take place on the front end and I think this horse may have trouble making up the ground            

11.  KING TACHYON  10-1

Trained by:  MUSSE

Breeding:  KING KAMEHAMEHA x AGNES TACHYON x NORTHFIELDS

Jockey:  EVANS  (WIN 26%)

King Tachyon began his career in mid-2009 as a three year old and had fair results.  He ran predominately in Norway and had a win and place in 6 starts with a top speed of 90.  In December he started to shine, nailing a speed of 98 and from that point on knocked off speeds of 95 up to his high of 113 which was posted this past September.  

Trainer Musse admits that he is rather surprised that his colt has come this far stating “I wasn’t even considering it and then he gave me some good performances in stakes and I continued with graded and he stunned me. So sure, I didn’t even consider BB at the start of the summer.”  Well, his horse is here and won his last two starts, both G1 races.  In his last race, the Classic Turf, he bested Grand Ball by three who will also be running in this race.  

King Tachyon loves to run on the lead and there are a few others who like to be there too.  When asked about King’s chances to beat the field, Musse responded “I think he have a fair chance, but he needs to have a good start position as well as having the lead after 2-3 furlongs, if he manage that he will be in the top-3.”   Musse has had past experience in the Breeders’ Bowl with a runner way back in 2000 that finished 4th.  After being away from the game for a while, Musse is happy to have this powerhouse.

Asked about the competition and the horses of concern, Musse stated “I actually fear the other horses that likes to take the lead, since if they are stronger that day my horse will have a tough time out there on the track. I do believe that Proud Souls have a good chance as well, but it all depends on who will take the lead. Carnival of Love and Future Dream are sure coming into this race in really good form as well and they usually stay a bit further down the field at start.”  

With that answer, I pegged Musse to be a realist and asked where King Tachyon may be in his career 3 years up the road. “I think he will be racing at graded level for at least 1-2 more years, I have the real goal for him next year. If he still perform well enough he will stay in graded or else I will take him into allowance class for awhile before finding him a suitable sire for breeding. It all has to do with his performances, depending on speed in win percentage.”   Sounds like another realistic vision.

Musse has it right with King Tachyon.  It’s all about getting the lead and being able to hold on to it.  This will be a tough task with this group.

12.  PORTUGAL THE MAN  10-1

Trained by:  ASTINATOR

Breeding: SADLER’S WELLS x ALYDAR x SEATTLE SLEW

Jockey:  OSBOURNE  (30% WIN)  

Now here’s a horse that has a knack for getting on the board.  In 36 starts, this 5 year old has been on the board 34 times with a record of 15-10-9.  And his record in graded races?  That would be 4-2-5 in 13 races.

Trainer Astinator is associated with the Astins Place conglomerate of barns which has yielded a winning record of 25% with over 17,000 races to their credit.  Additionally, the conglomerate has a very impressive record of achieving results with a 61% of their entrants hitting the board.  

Portugal the Man has only raced 12 furlongs 5 times and is 2-0-2 in those efforts, however, this past August equaled his career best speed of 111 at this distance.   Portugal has also been well placed into races where he rarely faces a field of 10 or more.  However, he can handle the larger field as is demonstrated in his 5 starts and being in the money each time including a pair of wins.

I envision Portugal running anywhere between 5th and 10th in the early stages of the race and the closer to the leaders the better.  Hard to believe he has just over $1.6 million in earnings.  With his record, he bears watching.

13.  CRUSADING ENFORCER  17-1

Trained by:  FOXON5

Breeding:  MONJEU  x KINGMAMBO x DEPUTY MINISTER

Jockey:  LEDWITH (30% WIN)

Crusading Enforcer is a challenging horse to look at.   He generally runs between the middle of the field and in front of the rear of the field, so we’ll say 75% of the field is in front and 25% are usually behind him in the early stages.  What makes him challenging to consider is he can be a powerhouse coming down the stretch and other times he is no where to be seen.  

In July, he ran in a G1 race and sustained an injury which sidelined him for 2 ½ months.  Crusading reappeared in October, squaring off against a few other entrants in this race in the Ark De Comicdog where he finished a disappointing 8th and a speed of 96.  Being concerned that he may still be suffering side effects from the injury, I asked Foxon5 on what we can expect this weekend.  “I’m really not sure. He was in great form early in the year but picked up an injury 2 races back. He came back from that in the Arc but didn’t fire. I’m hoping that was down to his first try on an off-track rather than a loss of form. I guess we find out on Saturday.” Foxon5 responded and also admitted that this race was a long term target for Crusading.

Trainer Foxon5 is connected with the well established Foxon Stables, which has a very impressive winning record of 24% and an eye-opening in-the-money 58% of all starts.  Crusading is in good hands with his current owners that have a real knack for winning races.  Foxon5 indicates he’s had longshot runners in the past Breeders’ Bowl races but is excited with this years race.  So I asked Foxon5 if his horse doesn’t win, who could take it.  With a simple shrug of the shoulder the answer rolled out easily “Any time you come up against a Dixie trained horse you know you are in for a race. Title Defense looks a big threat.”

Crusading Enforcer has scored three G1 victories this year with speeds ranging from 108 up to 114.  This four year old has talent with 11 wins in 23 starts and over $7 million in winnings.  Crusading is a bit of a risk gamble, but I think he’s ready for a big turn around.

14.  CREEK MAMBO  12-1

Trained by:  STCSELUR

Breeding:  KINGMAMBO x STORDES CREEK x HERBAGER

Jockey:  COX  (21% WIN)  

Creek Mambo’s best effort thus far is arguably the King Geoff and Queen Beth’s Emerald Stakes where he was part of a 3-way speed dual on the front end.  The race was held this past July and the battle continued until the threesome rode past the ¾ pole when Creek Mambo secured the lead and won by nearly 3 strides with a  speed of 112.  The race included Carnival of Love and Crusading Enforcer (who was injured in the race), both he will face again in the Turf.

Since this win, things have gone down hill as Creek followed this race with a fifth in the G.P Von Baden, beaten by three horses he will again face:  King Tachyon, Future Dream and Title Defense.  

He again suffered defeat in the Coalminer Cup, finishing forth after pressing the leader and most recently ninth in the Ark De ComicDog, a prep race leading up to the Turf where he was outdone by several other horses he’ll be facing again in this race. 

The fastest speed Creek Mambo recorded was in early July with a 116, besting Future Dream to the wire.

Creek Mambo has the talent to beat these, as he has topped several of these entrants in the past.  On the other hand, he has also been beat by horses in this race.  He’s a toss up but his recent form has not been appealing and there’s a lot of speed in this race and he looks like he’ll join the parade on the front which may not work to his favor this time out.

THE PICKS

I offered readers of the BTB through the bulletin boards the chance to make their picks for this race.  Since only one did, I’ve opted to include their selection in it’s entirety.  Thanks Skunkbarn and nice insight!!!!

#1 Faraday Cage
#11 King Tachyon
#9 Carnival of Love

Since I’m running him I have to Pick the #1 horse. Despite sentiment, he comes in off a second place finish in the Ark de Comic Dog besting many in here who may be falling off form. If you give him an excuse it was his first race on the wet turf and he wasn’t Sharp, then he’s poised to blow out a big race this week given his “kicking the stall doors down” this week.

He prepped before the Ark going 14F with little effort so he’s pretty wound up getting the firm turf this week. We haven’t seen his best race considering his previous two Graded wins were all blow outs (7 1/4 and 4 lengths).

He’s the lightest raced horse in the field and is amongst the top 5 or 6 in current form and will save a ton of ground racing out of the #1 hole. I think he gets one of the first runs at the leaders which should be enough of an edge over the deep closers. With W. McClendon aboard, 22-1 odds will satisfy anyone backing him at the windows.

King Tachyon will vie for the lead and most likely get it. The only question is how much effort will it take? He’s been used to big leads but I don’t think he gets it this week. I think he turns back the early challengers but gets caught at the wire. I don’t think we’ve witnessed this horse’s best race yet either.

Carnival of Love is trying to go four in a row and that’s pretty tough at any level. I’m going with a little bit of history in that last year, COL won the Ark and finished well back in this race next time out. He’s proven class can win races even when speed figures drop which they have done for COL the last 5-6 months or so. Even still, he has to be the horse to beat on everyone’s list.

TRACKMAN PICKS:

9-Carnival of Love

3-Proud Souls

4-Future Dreams

Yoss Picks:

9-Carnival of Love

4-Future Dream

11-King Tachyon

7-Title Defense

My Picks:

4-Future Dream looks like he could get good positioning to bear down on the front runners late in the race.  Jockey draw not the best.

3-Proud Souls may have best shot of all the frontrunners to wire the field.

9-Carnival of Love is on a tear lately and has strong late run ability.

12-Portugal the Man is always on the board and could be a factor in exotics.

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