Who Will be This Year’s Saint??

The Japanese Saint Legend is set to go in Japan (how ironic is that) this weekend.  The race is open to all 3 year olds and is on the turf at the enduring distance of 14 furlongs.  Looking at last years runners (the only time this race has been run) shows quite a few talented horses who have become superstars which included Creek Mambo, Artiste, New Money, Dylan Tom N Jerry and K’s Stagflation, all of which have won over a million thus far.  K’s Stagflation won the race by a mere head over New Money with a steamy speed of 111.

We have two horses in this field, A. P. Popular and Burnt Lawn, that have already earned over a million.  Will this years grouping result in just as many superstar runners?  Time will tell.  The race comes with a purse of $2.5 million at stake here, we could see another million dollar horse when the race is over…possibly two or three more.

1.  A. P.  Popular   7-2

Turf Record   12 starts  5-6-1

A. P. Popular has been flawless on the turf, hitting the board in every single start.  A.P. has been stuck in second gear of late, which translated means he has 5 consecutive finishes where he finished second.  He ran on this track back in May, with yielding conditions, and missed by two in a speed of 102 finishing 2^nd in the G1 Japanese Derby.  Two of his last three starts has speeds of 110 or over.  This will be the longest race of his career as he adds 2 furlongs to his last handful of starts.  Being that he’s “stuck in second gear” the extra distance may just be the right thing.

2.  Dynamic Destiny   8-1

Turf Record   13 starts  8-1-1

Dynamic Destiny has already collected 3 graded wins in seven career starts.  Most recently he won the Dutch St. Leger (14f) in which he won by 5 strides in his career best speed of 106.  2010 has been a good season on the grass for Dynamic as he has won 6 times in 8 starts.  I believe his speeds in the last 5 races are misleading, ranging from a low of 86 up to 106.   He easily won a few of these races, thus running the speed numbers up would have not been beneficial.  He’s got ability and the 8-1 odds may prove to be rewarding.

3.  Consumed by Chaos   9-2

Turf Record   5 starts  2-2-1

In late spring, Consumed by Chaos swapped the dirt for the grass and life changed for the better.  This colt’s speed numbers have surged from a very nice 98 up to a sharp 111.  In September, he set the pace in the Early Months Stakes and was run down in the stretch, still finishing 2^nd with the 111 speed.   This will be his first race at 14 furlongs and I expect to see him setting the pace.  In June, he finished third going 12 furlongs, wearing down late in the race.  I don’t feel he’ll win with the extra distance as he’s yielded the lead in the three races at 10f or longer he’s appeared in.  Still, he could factor into the exotics.

4.  Performance Art   13-1

Turf Record   12 starts  4-1-3

Performance Art is taking his second shot at the graded level.  His first opportunity came in June where he finished forth with a fair closing effort.  He’s done well at the allowance level, which the above record primarily reflects.  He has only surpassed the 100-speed barrier once and on paper, he simply looks overmatched.

5.  Hellhound   6-1

Turf Record   2 starts  0-1-0

Hellhound is an interesting entrant.  In September, he made his first turf race in nearly a year.  He finished a poor sixth in the 10f Early Months Stakes, however, sparkled with a speed of 106 showing lots of promise.  He has not run more than 10f and will be adding a half mile in distance for this race.  He may eventually show that he likes the turf than the dirt, but I’m taking a pass for now, mainly due to the longer distance.

6.   Shakeastickat    10-1

Turf Record  11 starts  4-3-0

In April, Shakeastickat won his only graded race (in 5 tries) taking the Craven Stakes (8f) on a wet turf course and establishing his career speed mark of 103.  While he’s been on the board in 7 of 11 starts, he falls flat in fields of 10 or more.  In those races, Shakeastickat is 0 for 4.  He’s adding a ton of distance from the mile races he’s been competing at.  His breeding line does lean toward routes, but I have to pass as their just isin’t enough showing he’ll be a strong factor in this race.  I’ve been wrong before, and the longer route may make me eat my words.

7.  Bogoesaway   7-1

Turf Record  13 starts  4-2-2

Bogoesaway does not seem to be the right name for this horse that just doesn’t go away.  Bo likes to run late in the race, so he may not go away that easily.  His only graded race win (in 7 starts) came in August where he won the 12f The Great Vault by three lengths in his best speed to date of 106.  Unfortunately, Bogoesaway sometime does go away as his last race in September saw him going off as the second choice at 9-2 in the Saint Legend (14f) and he incurred his worse defeat of his career.  Was it just a bad off-day race for him, or a sign of some sort?  I think he’ll put in a better effort, but I’m not committing that he will make it to the winners circle.

8.  Authambo   19-1

Turf Record  13 starts  4-3-3

With 8 graded races on the turf under his belt, Authambo has a record of 3-1-2.  While this record is good, his speeds have been questionable.  He has yet to break 100 and has averaged about 93 over his last 4 starts.  After a lackluster performance in May,  Authambo took a 5 month layoff and returned on October 9^th and showed no improvement.  He only has 2 weeks rest for this race and he adds distance which neither make favorable arguments for an upset.

9.  Black Down  9-1

Turf Record  9 starts  2-1-2

Black Down is hoping that the third time is a charm.  He has tried twice in graded company and walked away with no purse money in both tries.  This colt has lots of late speed which could be beneficial going in this long route race and makes him dangerous.  He is at 9-1 which means there is some risk here and that being he is inconsistent with his late runs.  He’s moody and if he does not want to run, he won’t.  Too much uncertainty for my liking.

10.  Burnt Lawn   11-1

Turf Record  14 starts  5-3-2

Burnt Lawn ran a speed of 104, which was his first 100 rated race, last month in the Saint Legend Stakes (14f) finishing forth by 3.  What is even more impressive is that he was last at the half, almost 22 lengths behind…that’s one heck of a closing!   But looking at the prior race, he was 19 back at the half and finished 29 back going 16f.  This turned out to be his worse race.  With the exception of two starts, he has collected purse money in every other race.   I like his late footing and it is pretty reliable.  If he doesn’t fall 20+ lengths behind midway through the race, his chances to win improve.  11-1 would be a nice payday.

11.   Ricciarelli  9-1

Turf Record 8 starts  3-1-3

With four graded starts Ricciarelli has finished 3^rd a total of three times.  In his first two starts, he ran near the lead and finished well.  Since then, he’s been running more in mid-field and making a late run.  There’s only one horse with speed and I think if he can relax off the lead, he may have his best shot to win.  There’s several late runners and he may get swallowed up in traffic in the late stages of this race.  His best speed came in July in the French Grand Prix (12f), finishing 3^rd with a 104.  Tough call on this one.

Hard to look past A. P. Popular in this race.  He adds needed distance to get the job done and 30% win jockey K. Ledwith likes the chances too.

Dynamic Destiny could run 2^nd or 3^rd early on and be in reach of overtaking leader late in race.  Distance of race suits him well.

Burnt Lawn had monster late move in his last start and if he polishes that up just a bit, he can shine in this race.

Box the above three in exotics and toss in Consumed by Chaos who may find a way to wire the field.  Payoffs in exotics look generous!!!