Big-Money Eclipse Stakes
With the Breeders Bowl races just a couple of weeks away, it could be expected that a race like the Grade 1 Eclipse Stakes at Newmarket (E5) might draw a light field despite the cool $1 million purse offered up.
Not so. A high-quality field of eleven will meet the starter in what promises to be a very interesting race:
MOSKOVSKAYA – (15/1) This 3yo son of Dynaformer is in a very tough spot to make his debut against older runners, and has had trouble contending since his big May 29 win in France. The super10 trainee showed sizeable improvement in his last, however, and his closing style might get some help from an early-pace duel here. Interestingly, his dam (by Kingmambo) won five graded stakes, all on dirt, yet her baby bombed in his only dirt try.
FUSAICHI KITTY – (8/1) By Kitten’s Joy out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, this mavrkstbl4 trainee hasn’t won since March, but has run strongly in several graded-stakes tries since then. He showed quite a bit of improvement in his last, a strong-closing effort in a Grade 3 8-furlong event. Will the extra distance help? Only if he has improved since last winter’s classic-distance tries.
THE LONGEST YARD – (8/1) This scratch-bred son of Manila out of a Grey Dawn II mare hasn’t won since January, but has closed well in most of his races this year, including three graded-stakes efforts. Trainer israel has hired a strong (14%) jock to handle his colt here.
DANCE ROUTINE – (7/1) Fusaichi Pegasus colt has a pair of wins in his last four tries, including a grade 3 at this distance. The twoofus2 trainee ran fourth in a stronger-than-average Grade 1 field last time out, and may be better than he appears. Sim dam won almost $1 million with 17 turf wins. Speedy runner has won from just off the pace, which could be just what’s needed here.
I AM MISTER ED – (6/1) It’s really hard to figure this guy out… Late-closing type sometimes fires, sometimes not. The papracing trainee by Theatrical has a pair of recent races here, both with today’s rider. One was a monster win, one was a monster flop. Will the real Mister Ed please stand up and say, “Wil-bur-r-r-r-r!” 🙂
LONESOME ROAD – (36/1) The longshot of today’s field is a son of Oratorio who has only 12 starts on his resume, but is stakes-placed and seems on the improve. Trainer kingcub takes a moon shot in this bunch, hoping for that once-in-a-lifetime effort.
ABEL – (5/1) This 4yo son of Teofilo has been on fire lately, picking off four in a row including three minor stakes races. In fact, he hasn’t been worse than 2nd since April ’09. His last two speed ratings are very competitive,but he takes a big jump in class here. Trained by aredneck, he could get a nice garden spot from which to launch his run.
LEGENDS OF ROCK – (13/1) Talented 3yo by Rock Hard Ten is thrown in with older for the first time, and it’s quite a tall order despite his three graded-stakes wins for simsters4. He is running quite sharply now, but will have to raise his game some to get the big check here.
REFUSE TO CRY – (21/1) This 5yo son of Refuse To Bend tried dirt for the first time after a 6-month rest last time out, and it didn’t go well. Trainer paceman2 hopes his runner can find his form of yesteryear quickly, or at least get tightened up for future runs.
LIGHT TRIPPER – (3/1) To say this guy is on a roll would be like saying “Yao Ming is tall”. With five wins in a row, four of ’em graded stakes, this blue-blooded son of Sadler’s Wells brings a spectacular resume into the Eclipse. Trainer tripwire was asked for input on why he wasn’t going to ship this awesome 5yo to Kentucky for the Breeders Bowl Turf, he said, “Distance. That huge-money race is very tempting, but 12 furlongs against the world’s best seems like a tall order. I think this is a much better spot, and the money is still big.” This trainer certainly knows how to spot ’em, winning at a sensational 25% clip. One caveat; this guy has gotten an easy lead in just about every race recently, but he should get a good battle up front today.
STORMIN JONES – (5/1) This speedy 4yo Storm Cat colt hasn’t missed the board since August ’09, and the sharood trainee has picked up three graded-stakes trophies in the process. Improving colt hasn’t yet faced quite the level of competition faced by Light Tripper, and the pace scenario looks a bit difficult.
Crystal ball time…
The two most-accomplished runners here both want the lead badly. This could mean that one of ’em gets burned out and finishes far up the track, or that neither hangs on at all.
I’m going to go with the first scenario.
LIGHT TRIPPER wins the pace battle over STORMIN JONES and takes the big money as the other is unable to take the pace heat and just misses the podium.
The improving ABEL closes well from just off the pace to grab the place spot.
DANCE ROUTINE loses the place battle and settles for the show dough.
Good luck at the races!