Tough Pickings in Queen Liz
The Queen Liz, a mile turf race, has drawn a full field of 14 horses. The race is open to all horse age 3 and over and the fillies have avoided this race, as only the guys will try their best to oust each other. This will be the second running of the Queen Liz. Last year’s race was won in a speed of 115 by Basketball Jones. Ironically, Basketball Jones has had 11 winless races since winning this race. Whispers around the track are saying that the Queen Liz has a hidden curse. Could it be true????? I, for one doubt it. Especially since it has only been run once. Here’s a snapshot of this years contenders.
1. Mackinaw Peach 6-1….Has won three of last four, including two graded races. Has average speed of over 107 in last five. Gets top jockey Harzheim (32% win). Last race was a forth over this track with respectful speed of 109. Looms as threat if avoids speed dual.
2. Nothin’ to Plunder 7-1…Has two graded wins this year which includes The Sundown Mile (8f). The Sundown Mile was run over this track in April and Nothin’ won with speed of 116, career best. Has averaged 110 speed over last five. Best chance is to wire field, does not perform well when he lays off the pace.
3. Tush 11-1….Last three races have been at allowance level with mixed results. Averaged slightly over 101 speed in last five starts. Has one win over last 14 races making chances to win rather remote.
4. Silver Stealth 5-1….Winner of 3 of last four starts. Last start was sole graded race appearance in The Rennen Mile which resulted in big win with career best speed of 117. Over last 5 starts has averaged just under 109 in speed. Stands chance to win, but will need another high speed number similar to last race which will be hard to do again.
5. Hardwater Wells 10-1….In 2010, has record of 5-3-0 in 9 starts. Has win streak of 3- in a row. Last 5 starts are only ones Hardwater has had with speeds over 100, and averaged 105 in that span. Won in speed of 112 (career mark) in Violin Mile (non-graded) by 2 strides. This is first career start at graded level and gets awful jockey Fish who has only one win this year. Hard to see this pair making a winning combo.
6. Sermon and a Song 19-1….Averaged slightly over 100 in last 5 appearances which include two awful graded starts (one at 10f) with speeds below 100. Won the Bad Things Mile (g3) in career best 110 in early May. Sermon has been inconsistent of late and may need a race or two to get back on track.
7. Sadler’s Duke 12-1….Shined in G2 The Celebration by winning by 2 in career best speed of 116. Has averaged just under 104 in last 5 races. Winner of 4 of 8 career starts with last 3 being only ones over 100 with two over 110 threshold. Sadler’s is showing power of late and is threat as long as last two starts have not worn him down with monster speed numbers.
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9. Cedric 10-1….Has won 2 of 4 graded races in last 5 starts with career best in the Silver Surfer at speed of 112. Has average speed of nearly 103 over these races an is driven down by rare poor effort in May allowance race. Hard to tell with this one as he always has the potential to be the spoiler.
10. Crazy Scoob 9-1….Has averaged a speed of 104 over last 5 starts and includes a 114 speed (best since 2008) in the Gas Station Mile (G2) where he finished second by a mere head. 7-year old has won 15 of 45 turf races, but has been winless in last 16 starts. Jockey Shuchmann (2 wins in 2010) adds nothing to enhance his chances in this race.
11. Breach In Security 18-1….Makes his debut race at graded level off sole non-graded victory in The Quince with career best of 111. Has averaged a tad over 102 in last five starts. Last start was nice and he will have to nudge it up will taking leap up in class. Difficult task ahead of him.
12. El Astro Zuliano 10-1….Won 4 of last 5 turf starts and 10 of 29 throughout career. Last 5 turf starts have average speed of 104. El Astro is making his first start in graded company. Has 6 starts on turf against fields of 10 or more and is winless. Will need to rely on early speed to beat this group.
13. Strike Machine 9-1….Has an average of 105 speed in last five outings and finished on board in each of those starts. Ran monster speed of 119 end of 2009 and has capability. Could be underrated, time will tell.
14. South of Sanity 14-1….Ran career best speed of 111 in August, followed by 2nd best of 109 in September. Average speed has been around 103 in last 5 turf starts. Generally a good runner however has not always done well when shipped across seas, which is case in this race, although the 109 in last start was a 3rd after long distance shipping.
Tough choice to make as this looks to be an open race. Several are coming off monster races which are tough to repeat upon. With that said, Mackinaw Peach gets my top pick as he has been consistent with his speed and has won nearly half his starts (11 of 24). Oh yea, and having the top rider never hurts.
South of Sanity is a risk play as he has had some rough time shipping in the past, but his last race wasn’t too bad. He’s done well at this distance in the past and has an excellent breeding line.
Silver Stealth has 3 of last 4 starts with speed numbers over 110. This could be a bit punishing over time, but he does have talent and he gets the third spot.