DEMECO defends against three-pronged attack

By ITCH

Normally, a West Virginia-to-New York shipper is bound for hard luck, but here we are again in The City for a pair of big Grade I races at the New York track.

First, we delve into the Grade I Jockey Guild Gold Cup, going the classic distance of a mile and a quarter over the main track for a big prize of $750,000. Later, we’ll be reading into the Grade I Great Dame.

What do you suppose the chances are that Selurvinek watched this year’s Bluegrass Derby? He’s trying the same sort of oddball 5 1/2-furlong prep for a classic mile-and-a-quarter Grade I used by Derby winner LUCKY’S HOWIE. Just as Mr. Lucky gave the Derby champ a very brief prep race for his life-changing score, Selurvinek has prepped the No. 1-ranked ELUSIVE HIGH for this year’s Gold Cup with a similar odd-looking 5 1/2-furlong sprint. After a solid second-place finish in the Grade I Farewell to Cryptozot on Aug. 7, Elusive High was right back on the track two weeks later, clearly not well-meant in a time-restricted allowance sprint in which he jogged home ninth. However, before handicappers count that race against the No. 1-ranked older horse and declare Selurvinek as a wild renegade of a trainer, let’s note that he’s gotten this horse ready for big Grade I efforts off of funny-looking prep races before. Now, the following example was not so extreme as a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, but let’s note that Selurvinek got Elusive High to win the Grade 2 Out of City Handicap coming off of an odd-looking defeat in a track-restricted allowance field of only four horses. No way the No. 1 older horse has any business losing a race like that, and no way he has any business being ninth in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, but that’s the way Selurvinek is protecting his horse and dictating his form cycle. He’s obviously well meant here, and Selurvinek means to have this top horse ready for a big race in the Gold Cup.

Our second qualifier is the great DEMECO for fatattack. Back in 2008, this 5yo chestnut son of Awesome Again went on the kind of tear that all Sim trainers dream about. In his sixth career start, Livestrong Racing stretched the colt all the way from six furlongs to 10, and the rest was history. Demeco went on a huge run, winning seven in a row, capping his streak with a victory in the 2008 Breeders Bowl Classic. Even if he had never lifted another hoof, Demeco had cemented his place in Sim history. There may never be another seven-race win streak, but Demeco is still knocking pretty good for a horse who ran so far, so fast as a 3yo. To be sure, the going has gotten somewhat tougher, with only 13 wins under the horse’s belt after that long win streak as a 3yo. A victory three back in the Grade I Movieland Shiny Cup broke a 10-race winless streak and propelled the horse back up the rankings. With a second-place run last out in the Grade I CA Classic, Demeco is back to No. 6 in the route division. His form looks good right now with two wins and a place in his last three. Might this grand champion of the Sim be returning to a hot streak of form like when he was 3? Might he be a real contender for the Breeders Bowl again? If he runs another good race here in the Gold Cup, he’ll sure look the part.

MAMBO HEAT is an awful long price at 18-1 for qualifying way up in the third spot. What gives? Simple answer: His age. Mambo Heat is a 3yo facing his elders for the first time, so his recent speed figures of 108 and 107 do not quite match up with the 110-plus numbers that the big boys fire. He’ll have to ratchet up his game a notch or two to compete in the Gold Cup, which is a heck of a spot for his fist time against older horses. Mambo Heat has shown top class when racing against his own age only, and while racing one panel shorter. All of his graded placings, including his victory last out in the grade 2 State Penn Derby, have been at nine furlongs or shorter. He stretches out to 10 furlongs Saturday, a challenge in itself. He’s raced once at the mile and a quarter, but was flat and fading at the end to be fourth. So, this colt faces some serious challenges here, moving up in class, stretching out and facing elders for the first time. It’s a lot to ask, and hence the fair price, but even with those concerns, Mambo Heat is some kind of horse and represents a strong second part of a three-horse entry for Selurvinek, who also trains the top-ranked Elusive High. It’s an accomplishment in itself to own two of the top three qualifiers in the Gold Cup. As such, this is as strong an entry as you’re likely to see in a Grade I race.

We’ll find the race favorite down here in the fourth qualifying position for my man Otis with TOO MANY LARRY. “It feels so good to be back here at the Dexter Lake Club, and right now, we’d like to do for you a little number entitled Shama-Lama-Ding-Dong, so hit it.” Like the men of Animal House, it’s nice to know that Otis loves us and we certainly wish him well in the Gold Cup. With Too Many Larry, Otis has a late-running gray son of Unbridled’s Song who has translated his closing kick into a place in the Top 10. Too Many Larry is ranked No. 9 in the route division, and brings solid, improving form into the Gold Cup. He won the Grade I Farewell to Cryptozot two back, getting up in time to catch the No. 1 horse and top qualifier here, Selurvinek’s Elusive High. As is his custom, Too Many Larry just walked out of the gate in the Cryptozot, falling 15 lengths behind before he commenced his run. Meanwhile, Elusive High was getting a nice rail trip in fifth, and looked like a winner when he moved on the leader at the head of the stretch. However, Too Many Larry was coming like a gray streak on the outside and ran the big horse down. Can he do it again Saturday in the Gold Cup? Otis would love it.

The first thing that jumps out at you on SILVERGORE’s past performance page is that string of zeros running across the top of the page next to “Wins Within.” Silvergore has not won a race in a year, and brings a 12-race winless streak into the Gold Cup. To make matters worse, the horse has been off the board in four of his last five. Last out, he faded to fourth in the Grade I CA Classic, beaten almost five lengths by Demeco, who he will meet again today. Jrogue Stables is a sharp outfit, not affiliated with any residency, which is hitting for a very nice 17-percent win rate with 19 barns that are almost all full. This is a successful player who keeps up with the game, so we have to respect his decision to continue to campaign Silvergore almost exclusively in Grade I company as the losses mount. Of course, it’s hard to tell a guy that he should get a win with a horse when he is collecting on-the-board finishes against the Sim’s elite. This past June, Silvergore was second in the Grade I Barry Foster in Kentucky, and in January, second in the Grade I Glenn Handicap in Florida. So, the horse has proven he can contend in Grade I company, if not win. Silvergore has failed to win in his last 11 Grade I tries. His lone victory at the class was in the Grade I Smackdown going a mile and a half. His last three tries this class at 10 furlongs have been dismal failures. You might want to put this horse underneath on your trifecta tickets, but not on top.

There’s been a bit of a disturbance here in the New York press box as a tea party candidate for governor has come in and begun threatening every reporter in the place. Like the man from the New York Post, this crazy old Italian guy threatened to “take me out,” but later squeezed my knee and said he meant “to dinner.” It has been one of the most bizarre and unsettling incidents of my BTB career, to be perfectly honest. Sdmf and the Black Label Stables are making what would seem to be a similar empty threat under the DelPenn banner to win the Gold Cup with OL SUKIE JONES, a 4yo gray son of Empire Maker who has wins at the distance, but not against this caliber of competition. Ol Sukie Jones won last out in a non-graded stake going 10 furlongs, and shows another win in a restricted allowance four back this distance. However, the class of those races is a far cry below that of the Grade I Gold Cup, which this horse has proven unable to handle. His only graded placing as an older horse was at the marathon distance of two miles. While this writer is taking a guess he’s a notch below these, Ol Sukie Jones is a strong stamina-type horse who’s got some class, if maybe not the class to get up in the Gold Cup.

VOLAIMPACTO did not lift a hoof last out when running an uncharacteristic 13th, beaten almost 16 lengths, in the Grade I Hit Me Handicap. Before then, this 4yo brown son of Deep Impact was a model of consistency for the Danno3 Stables, who will fly the MIDAS banner here Saturday. Volaimpacto had a five-race winning streak snapped in the Grade I Movieland, in which he was defeated by the great Demeco, who he will meet again here Saturday. In the Movieland, Volaimpacto broke a clear third and had a nice, stalking trip behind the two leaders. He was catching the leader late, but Demeco came storming down the middle of the track to run by everybody. Bettors who had Volaimpacto second in the exacta cringed when Distorted Storm barely got up for second. Volaimpacto ran very hard to catch the leader that day, and it may have taken something out of this fine horse. This is the second time in his career that Volaimpacto has faced adversity like this. He was distanced as a 3yo, and came back in the New Yorker, in which he was fourth. So, Danno3 is not afraid of taking on top class off of poor races with this horse.
That ugly race last out may shake the confidence of some bettors, but Danno3 is sticking by his horse.

Dixiedotco’s GO GENTLE is getting good respect down on the rail from the morning line oddsmaker at 8-1. And why not? Representing the Pastures of Green, Dixie is nothing short of the greatest trainer in the history of the Sim. If you take a look at those stats assembled under Mr. Peanut on the Dixiedotco Racing page, you’ll see Sim history. Of the 15 stables, five have more than 400 wins. Two more are quickly approaching that number. To put those numbers in perspective, this writer has been playing the game for 10 years and was very happy indeed to eclipse the 200-win mark with one of my stables recently. Dixie is just way, way better than most and sets the standard all other trainers are trying to catch. Speaking of trying to catch, they’ll be trying to catch Dixie’s horse in this race, too. Go Gentle is a front-running 4yo son of Dylan Thomas who has 13 wins in 25 races. This is typical of Dixie horses. They look like win machines. This horse fired a big shot three back this distance in a Grade 3 when he wired the field, ahead by almost nine at one point. To be sure, this is a need-the-lead type horse who will need to have things his own way early to be there late. Two back, he did not get the lead in the Cryptozot and was run over in the lane, fading to 12th. He was beaten by both Too Many Larry and Elusive High in that race, and meets those two again Saturday. Also troublesome is the presence of the speedy DEVILWORSHIP, which could compromise Go Gentle’s chances if he cannot get to the front early. He needs the lead, but he’s dangerous if he gets it.

The longest shot in the field by far is DANCER’S SECRET, a 3yo son of Rahy who will go to the post in the Gold Cup at a massive 63-1. That’ll be almost $130 for every two dollars you bet if Pointblank’s Right at Home Stables can pull off a giant upset. This horse has carded six straight sub-100 speed figure races and has only broken the 100-speed figure barrier once in his 12-race career. By way of comparison, the great Demeco has run 100-plus 21 times. More importantly, Demeco has run 110 or better 11 times, and that’s the lofty figure Dancer’s Secret must attain to win on Saturday. This is as unlikely a proposition as you’re likely to see, and it would be no surprise if the powers that be at GR Simsters will give this member a stern lecture at the next residency meeting. GR Simsters do not run too many at 63-1, and Dancer’s Secret is an anomaly to the normal business practice of the Sim’s power block. Even though he’s ambitiously placed here, the horse does deserve credit and made a nice recovery from a very bad spate of form with a victory last out. This colt was badly beaten in the Middle Jewel, this distanced in the New Yorker. Before that win at 1-2 in a short field of five last out, the form Dancer’s Secret was dreadful indeed. This horse was really rolling in the spring, but hit the brakes after two graded scores out in California. He’s in a rough spot, to be sure, but one day might get to show his class again.

Of the handful of 3yos running in this year’s Gold Cup, you might take a long look at CORIN, a lightly-raced 3yo brown son of Arch who has better speed figures than his sophomore rivals. Corin has raced successfully against against older horses before, he does have the 110 speed figure that it looks like the winner of the Gold Cup is going to need. Topicount’s Bush League Stables watched this deep-closing colt run a 110 last out while second to SHELTERED in the Grade I Travelers. He backs that up with a 109 in a non-graded 12-furlong stake, and another 110 in a Grade 3 this distance. The non-graded 109 is particularly remarkable because not only was it recorded at 12 furlongs, it also was recorded against older horses. Corin is acting like the kind of champion who can handle difficult tasks like racing against older horses as a 3yo. Like Too Many Larry, Corin is just going to walk out of the gate, then try to make one huge run. He gets just a little bit more rest before this race and might be primed for a big effort at the juicy price of 15-1. It’s only his 11th career race and he’s eligible to improve. A super late-running colt no matter what happens.

The third part of Selurvinek’s Worldwide entry is DEVILWORSHIP, a brown 4yo son of Pulpit who is getting major respect from the morning line oddsmaker at 8-1. This is a fast horse, setting the pace in five of his last six races, and in classy fields, to boot. Devilworship set the pace in the Cryptozot, which may prove to be a key race in providing the winner of the Gold Cup. There were only eight horses in the Cryptozot, but all three of the top finishers are back together here today, seeking the bigger prize of the Gold Cup. While it may not be to the exteme example of Elusive High’s 5 1/2-furlong prep, Devilworship got ready for the Gold Cup by racing shorter. Like Elusive High, Devilworship raced only two weeks after the Cryptozot, and evidently is being pointed for this race. The only trouble is, he’s going to have to fight awfully hard for that early lead against Dixiedotco’s Go Gentle.

Is this what being a Chicago sports fan is like? This writer roots like crazy for Nextbonus Bill, but so far has only served as something of a schleprock when it comes to previewing Mr. Chicago’s horses in the BTB. Last time, we broke a longstanding apprehension about covering Bill’s horses, and took a shot that YOU SEE LA would prove best in the Travelers. Now, this was the weekend when the results got mixed up a little bit at first. So, imagine our horror when we watched You See LA press the pace, then get run over and finish way up the track. Yikes! We freaking jinxed Bill again! I went around all day feeling bad. Honest, I did. Only on Sunday did I find out that You See LA had actually been third in the Travelers and I did not have to feel so bad. So, it is with a mix of trepidation and hope that we take a look at Bill’s LISTENING, who is getting giant respect from the morning line oddsmaker. This 5yo chestnut son of the Kingmambo sire Eavesdropper will go off at 6-1 despite qualifying all the way down here in 12th spot. This horse, despite winning three of his last four, including a triumph in the Grade 3 Peach State Classic this distance, ranks only 90th in the route division and would seem to be conceding a class edge in a race that includes no fewer than three horses from the Top 10. He’s a plodding-type horse, and will walk out of there and then try to come running. Bill thought he had a New Yorker chance with this colt, but he was a dismal 11th that day, beaten 20 lengths. Even with his extreme late-running style, Bill has put this horse where he needed to be and as such has run up impressive totals of 10 wins and nine place runs in 38 career starts, earning over $1.2 million. The morning line oddsmaker likes this horse’s recent speed figures, but Bill knows he’s got something to prove classwise. He’s brought the horse up to this race carefully, letting him build his confidence and form agaisnt lesser while aiming toward the big shot. This is the day. Is this horse ready to fire the big shot?

What would a Grade I be without a representative of the Super Stables? Fear not, Simulated racing fans, for Super is here! The Super horse is …. FROM THE HIP!!!!!! And Super’s enemies snickered. The groom had to walk up the stretch to fetch this poor horse in the stretch of the Grade 3 Europe Stayer. In that race, this 4yo light gray son of Unbridled Song seemed to say he wanted nothing to do with 14 furlongs. To be fair, the horse has been better at Saturday’s distance of 10 furlongs and a shrewd handicapper might cross a line through that disaster last out. The only problem is, you have two more lines you have to draw because this horse was a well-beaten third two back in a Grade 3, and a floundering seventh three back. The current form is dreadful and it’s hard to see a horse just waking up from a dreadful three-race spate like this to all of a sudden win the Gold Cup. He’s freshened a bit with a six-week rest but he’s going to have to really turn it around to contend in this big race.

Finally, we have the filly NATIVE CHARISMA, who will add to the pace party at the long price of 24-1 for Qwikvett. Flying the banner of the Universal Racing Club, Native Charisma will try to outduel Go Gentle and Devilworship early. Like those speedsters, Native Charisma has shown a propensity to race on or near the lead. What a huge undertaking this filly is being assigned on Saturday, going forth in the Grade I Gold Cup against two legitimate pace-setting older horses. Those are two heavy heads she’s going to have to bang with early, and they’re going to fight her every step of the way in the early going to gain supremacy. She’s ceding a pretty huge class edge with only $128,000 in career earnings. She’s raced against the boys before, but that was a long time ago as a 3yo. The last two races look ugly, seventh and 10th while jumping around to oddball distances. I don’t know about this one. Hope she comes back in one piece.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!