Classic Turf Could be a Grand Ball

A surprisingly ultra-small field have shipped into New York for it’s annual running of the Classic Turf Stakes.  The field for the $600,000 G1 race has the smallest field ever, with only four willing to compete.  This turf race will be run at a distance of a mile and a half.   Another surprise is that jockey N. Painter did not get a mount for this race.  Painter has ridden the last two winners in 2008 and 2009.  Each of the entrants is guaranteed to take home a minimum of $30,000 as well as some of those precious breeding points.

1. Grand Ball  7-5

In this short field, I expect that Grand Ball will get a decent trip, most likely settling into the second spot in the early stages of the race.  His last 8 races have been in various graded races where he has collected 3 wins and a pair of places.  Average speed has been 104 in these races, with a pair over 110.  Jockey N. Lawton (24% win) will be aboard, and he has won this race 3 times since it’s inception in 1999.  Horse has a shot.

2.  A Call to Rise  5-1

It’s been a while since Jockey B. Child (16% win) has won this race but he will give it his all aboard A Call to Rise.  A Call to Rise will probably run 3^rd as he’s a slow starter who does have a lot of closing speed.  In 8 starts on the turf, he is 3-3-0, but that is his non-stakes record.  He has 3 starts with the graded level, with a nice third as his best performance.  His speed has averaged 97 over these races, with a top speed of 105.  He’ll be running 12 furlongs for the first time and he will need to rely on his late speed to collect the win.

3.  King Tachyon  4-5

King Tachyon is expected to shoot out for the lead in this race and has the ability to wire this field.   He has 3 starts in graded racing and a record of 1-0-1.  His first start was in March and was one you don’t write home about.  After that start, he had a second followed by 3 wins in a mix of allowance and non-graded stakes.   King Tachyon reentered the graded level in August where he collected a third followed by his first graded win.  Both races were with speeds of 110 and 113 respectfully.  Eleven year veteran S. Israel (12% win) will be handling this horse.  Interestingly enough, Israel has never ridden in this race before.  May never look back.

4.  Stormin Sed  6-1

Jockey E Cunningham (9% win) will be riding in this first time since 2002.   In that year, he finished dead last aboard Pleasantly Nijinsky.  But the jockey wasn’t to blame as the horse preferred the dirt.  Cunningham will take a shot with Stormin Sed, who won by 8 strides in an allowance race in his most recent start going 12 furlongs.  I can see Stormin trailing the field as he has trailed the field in his last 8 races.  I don’t get a ‘warm-n-fuzzy’ feeling that he will be able to move up from that spot.  He has yet to break the 100-speed level and his averaged about 95 over his last 5 starts.  Added, this is his first career stakes race and he’s shipping from overseas.  All of this does not compute to a winner.

I’m giving the edge to Grand Ball in this race.  Grand Ball has raced in Upper NY and will be driving down the thruway for this race.  I think the travel may make the difference in this race.

King Tachyon is the second choice.  He’s traveling overseas for the first time and it’s unclear how it may effect him.  I’d suggest a boxed exacta with Grand Ball, but I feel you’d lose money as it will probably pay around $3.60 on a $2. wager and the box would cost $4.  Oh, well.

A Call to Rise gets the third spot with his late speed.