The three-year-old turf division usually has one budding superstar by the autumn, and a few horses who are a little bit behind the curve on their development but who thrive on the intense competition within the division itself. This year, it seems to be Horseshoe Bay, maybe Minesweeper…and then there’s everybody else.
Fortunately for the sophomore turf division, Horseshoe Bay isn’t in Illinois for this weekend’s running of the Grade III, $150,000 Haw Haw Derby; after the Longchamp turf came up “good”, he was sent to Victoria to prep for the Breeders Bowl in their Coalminer Cup. The absence of the division leader here created openings for three of the Top 25 three-year-old turf classic horses to make names for themselves in a graded stakes race. A field of thirteen was entered for this mile-and-an-eighth test, with an intrguing cast supporting the main sophomore turf characters.
The field, in order of their division ranking:
Dubeye [Dubai Destination-Daneye, by Danehill] is the top turf horse in the field (ranked 6th), and by virtue of his win in the Grade I Newmarket Rivalry, this paceman2 trainee has secured a solid reputation for himself as a hard-working, late-running colt who appreciates a strong pace to follow. His figs, led by a 109 for that Newmarket win, have been solidly in the triple digits for much of the year against the overseas divisional contingent. But his recent trend has been declining: he seemed confused and distracted in the Saint Ledge last out at 10 furlongs, and in the seven-furlong Firebreather two back he never got engaged in the race. Additionally, his best results have come from between seven-and-a-half furlongs to a mile-and-a-sixteenth, which isn’t to say nine furlongs and longer isn’t his cup of tea—this is only his second start at this distance, and last time he was a late-charging third. He’ll need a reversal of recent form to operate at his peak, and a solid pace to run at late.
Rebellion [War Chant-Allen’s Minstrels(FR)] is ranked 8th in the division, and he’s a three-time graded winner on grass for the stables of kyclocker3 in his career. He easily wired a full field in the Grade III Boston Derby last out at today’s distance, and is in fact perfect on grass at a mile-and-an-eighth, also winning last fall’s Grade III Apparently Juvenile from off the pace. He’s quite versatile, easily placed anywhere in the field, and has found a lot of success as the main speed in a race. Here, he’s likely going to be the main speed, which should suit him ideally, and it should be up to the rest of these to try and play catch-up late. He has been prone to his own bratty behavior at times lately: he had all kinds of trouble in the Big Red over this course two back, and faced too much speed in the Tette Mile in Sweden four back. As the main pace here, providing he gets a better ride and trip than the last time over the Illinois surface, he could be imposing.
Saratoga Storm [Storm Cat-Lemon Lime, by Lemon Drop Kid] is bred to handle grass and distance, but has seemed to fall victim to graded voodoo in recent times. This denizen of the seppy barn has earned a paycheck in all but two starts in his career, and he owns four stakes wins, three of them this year to date. But he’s found himself on the fuzzy end of the lollipop when it comes to graded company. He closed far too late in the Grade III Boston Derby last out. In graded events at Northern California and New South Wales, he appreciated the longer distances but his rallies still wound up to be a little short. In two of his three listed wins this season, he’s found himself in another area code before closing furiously to win. Those three wins were all run at a mile-and-three-sixteenths. That’s his preferred distance, though he won at a mile-and-a-sixteenth as a juvenile, and the added ground and a sharp pace benefit him best, despite only breaking 100 fig-wise just once. At nine furlongs with one primary speed not guaranteed to set insane fractions, he might find it tough to finally get his first graded win here, but most certainly he will be in the mix in the stretch. One should feel comfortable placing him in a trifecta box, at least.
Highest Love(IRE) [High Chaparral(IRE) x Diesis(GB)] is ranked 30th in the division, but still qualifies for a NW3x allowance race. Trained by lostcode, he placed in a pair of Grade IIIs at two, and owns a stakes win this year, but his tries against much better company have been middling. He made a mild bid late against allowance foes, and found himself in over his head in the Big Red two back. He likes to come late, and owns a win at this distance, but the last time his numbers broke the century mark was last fall, and though he will be another stretch runner, there are a couple of better closers to be found here.
Heidelberg Heights [Dance Bid-La Run, by Machiavellian] should be appreciative of this mile-and-an-eighth distance, with a win earlier this year at the distance, and should be another one whose fortunes will be foretold late. He was a very game third in the Grade III Saint Ledge last time out, and three of his four stakes wins this year have come at nine furlongs or longer. He can charge late, but has had some good luck when stalking the early leaders; he’ll have no choice but to stalk here, really, which should be fine and dandy with him. His numbers haven’t broken 100 since late June, but he does show signs of rounding into form on that count, and this wish trainee could supply some added pressure to the expected early leader to turn the pace and the race to his advantage. He might like an extra half-furlong a little more, but he could be a dark horse in this field. Extra note: dam was Grade II-placed, but didn’t start winning until after her three-year-old campaign.
Pass The Buck(IRE) [Rock Of Gibraltar(IRE)-Ralph Wiggum, by Dance Brightly] has had a great year in 2005, finishing first or second in all but two starts this year, and was third in the Grade III Tette Mile two back. Trainer kwswps2 has done a great job getting this colt ready to go whenever he enters the starting gate this season, and so tries a graded field for the second time in his career, hoping the added ground will improve his racing luck. His angle is to sit chilly behind the leaders, no more than five lengths or so behind, and make a move later. But from five wins this year, only one of those was beyond a mile, and most of his other efforts going beyond a mile-and-a-sixteenth have resulted in paychecks, but not so much in wins. He’s a very good three-year-old miler, to be sure, and his figures reflect his continuing development at that distance, but he could be hampered by a lack of a strong middle move against this level at this distance. Keep your eye on him as he continues to develop, as next year he could turn into one of the top milers around, but this distance raises some questions.
Tarbash Irlandais [A.P. Indy-Irish Tarbash(FR), by Irish River(FR)] was a quality juvenile on grass, winning a Grade III and three other grass starts. But at three, his stock has come down just a little, not reaching the early potential he showed before. The representative from the barn of galaxystar has two allowance wins this year, but has only hit the board three times at stakes level. His Boston Derby effort was a little disappointing, as he passed tired horses to improve to eighth. His pedigree, from a Grade II winner, is rock solid, but was a better horse at four than at three, which should bode well for the future. He does like to close from deep behind the lead, and has a second and a third in three starts at this distance, but his struggles versus graded company can’t be ignored. His 103 at Vermont two back showed signs of life, but we’re waiting for something a bit more concrete.
Orgullo Cuidadano [Proud Citizen-Duke Needmore(IRE), by El Prado(IRE)] is a handful to say, but is a late-developing colt. Trained by species48, this colt has only begun to challenge at stakes level, but has a lot of potential to become a very good turf horse in the coming months. His fourth at Vermont last out was middling, as he led for about a mile-and-an-eighth under strong pressure before being collared in that mile-and-a-half stakes race. But two back, at New York in the Silky Sullivan, he sat in mid-pack, closed strongly late, and received a 105 fig for his second-place finish there. Was it a fluke, or can he run back to that? In two other starts at this distance, he was nosed out of a stakes win, and won an allowance, plus he won his only stakes race at ten furlongs, so classic distances don’t really intimidate him. He’s still evolving, but if he stalks the pace, that could set him up for a solid stretch run.
Salute Dixie [Bestyoucanbe-Cenote Gold, by Mr. Greeley] has run through his allowance conditions on the turf, but hasn’t been able to cross over into stakes-level success quite yet. Trainer dixiepride has him prepped to rise into graded competition for the first time, but the numbers don’t quite inspire a lot of confidence: he’s hit the board in two of three races at the distance, and is stakes-placed, but he only cracked 100 in his figs two back, in New Jersey. He likes to sit second or third, usually about two or three lengths from the pace, and move from there, but sometimes it doesn’t work out that way—his allowance win last out had him wiring the field. He’s another horse who’s finding his stride late in the year, but a little more seasoning (his 105 aside, he’s still running figs into the low-to-mid 90s) might serve him a little better going into the winter.
Pete Fountain [Dixieland Band x Roberto] is named for the jazz clarinetist, and just like the namesake, this zooomr trainee is hitting all the right notes. It’s quite the under-the-radar résumé: the horse has earned a paycheck in every one of his fourteen starts, and has hit the board in twelve of those races. This year alone, he’s had nine races, with four wins and five seconds. It’s a solid record, and one that makes you sit up and take notice. Then, of course, you look at the distances of these starts, and you see that all but two of those grass races were at distances shorter than a mile, and then you lie down again. He’s a mighty consistent colt, to be sure, but nine furlongs still has to be a big question mark. It should be said that this one has tried a mile-and-a-sixteenth this year, and in that race, he steadily worked his way through the field, and just missed by a head at the wire. Closing is his preferred running style, and he likes to do it from far back, which should be an advantage for him in the lane. He’s Grade III-placed from his last effort in California, and has speed figures that rank with the top choices in the field, so despite his lack of experience at classic distances, this could be a breakthrough race for him at this level; he’s a live one.
La Foricos [Porto Foricos-La Pro, by Honor Grades] just broke his maiden on July 22 versus allowance company, and has a three-race winning streak coming into this, his stakes (and graded stakes) debut. Trainer patriots might know something we do not, in his placement among this field, but a look at his past performances doesn’t give us too many hints. He’s faced only three stakes-placed horses while winning in allowance company, and his speed figures have only been as high as the mid-90s but once. He likes to be on the lead, or excruciatingly close to it, so maybe his purpose is to keep someone like Rebellion honest? If he’s a rabbit, one of the others here might celebrate the Night Of The Lepus, but his placement here is rather ambitious, winning streak aside. He’s got a lot to prove here.
Rock Cutter(IRE) [Giant’s Causeway(IRE) x A.P. Indy] has a regal pedigree, but does this Grade III winner have the goods? It’s a very valid question, one that his trainer liblelady3 might have asked when figuring out where to spot this talented colt. He’s making his grass debut in a particularly heady spot, with some established grass experts as his foes, but he can hang with the best of his generation on dirt, having won the Northern Derby with a 113 last out, and finishing third in the Grade I Swamps back in July. Exactly how he’s going to react to a surface switch at this stage is hard to predict, but he has a fine pedigree to experiment with here, being inbred to Secretariat (who could handle the grass, having won his last two career starts going long on the lawn) and having the hot sire Giant’s Causeway(IRE) giving him options. On dirt, he likes to stalk, sit pretty close to the lead, before kicking into gear by the stretch. Grass is a blank slate to try, and this field is as good a place as any, so he’s worth due consideration to be certain.
Senor Sam(IRE) [Black Sam Bellamy(IRE) x El Gran Senor] is another one with a turf pedigree trying a new surface for the very first time here. For trainer roberto, it’s not merely a grass debut, it’s a stakes debut, trying a graded field after impressing some of the railbirds with his dirt ability. With four wins in eleven starts, he’s been a consistent charmer at allowance level, only off the board and out of the money once. But at distances over a mile, he only has one win, and while he’s been coming on strong late, he’s been missing at the wire in his only two tries at nine furlongs. He’s certainly bred for the grass, and should be at home in mid-pack, but he’s unproven at a higher level, which puts him behind Rock Cutter(IRE), and his question mark at the classic distances further murk the issue. He is, however, a good miler, with a lot of potential in store for him at four.
My selections:
- Rebellion
- Pete Fountain
- Rock Cutter(IRE)
- Saratoga Storm
- Orgullo Cuidadano
Good luck, and happy racing!