Slew of Cash Heads Scottsdale Stayer Field

The second running of the Scottsdale Stayer (G1) is upon us in Arizona and this year’s event has increased in size to 13 runners from last years field of 9.  Last year the 2 mile race was run on a good dirt track and in a speed of 92, won by Incredible Squall with R. LeBlanc aboard.  This years field of fillies and mares, age 3 and up, have an excellent chance of breaking the speed record as the surface is expected to be dry and very fast this weekend.  Ironically, Incredible Squall is making a return to the race and will try to retain her top honor.  Here’s a look at the entrants:

 

 

1.  Buffalo River  9-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):   2 starts   0-0-0

 

Buffalo River makes her 3^rd career graded start with all of them coming at the 2-mile distance.  Her first two efforts resulted in finishing in the middle of the pack with speeds in the mid 90’s.  She has only one win this year and that was against low end allowance company.  Seems unlikely to be much of a threat.

 

 

2.  Tilt A Whirl   12-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):   none

 

Tilt A Whirl is an experienced graded stake runner with nearly 20 races to her credit and capturing a G3 and G1 victory, the most recent was March of 2008.  It’s been quite a while since her last graded win and she’s been struggling over the past year.  Since last August, she has one win in 13 starts.   Tilt has just made her second career start on the dirt in her last start, finishing a respectful 2^nd with a speed of 94 on an off-track.  Age may be catching up with this 6-year old but when she wants to she can close extremely hard.  But I’m passing as her experience is too limited on the dirt.

 

 

3.  Touched Gold   25-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):   1 starts   0-1-0

 

Touched Gold is coming off her career best speed of 101 which was on a good dirt surface finishing 5^th in a G2 race at 12f.  The prior race was a second in another G2 race running 16f with a speed of 98, closing 14 lengths in the second mile of the race.  She won 6 consecutive races in Tasmania however these were mainly allowance races against small fields.  Despite that, she won easily and her speeds may not show her true ability.   She may have some talent, but she cannot fall too far behind in the early going if she’s to have a shot at the win.

 

 

4.  Native Charisma   8-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):   no starts

 

This will be the first lifetime start for Native Charisma at the distance of 2 miles.  This 4 year old has had a nice 2010 campaign with an average speed of 100 in each of her races ranging in distance from a mile to 11 furlongs.  In 7 starts, she has a record of 2-4-0.  her last race was the only troublesome one and it was her first and only graded race start (a mile in distance) where she finished near the rear of the field.  She shows promise but two concerns exist…the extra distance and the poor performance at the graded level.  I think she can handle the distance but may need a race or two to show she will be competitive at this level (and signs point that she will be).

 

 

5.  Crown Thriller  10-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):   1 starts   1-0-0

 

This past July marked Crown Thriller’s first and only start in a dirt non-graded stake race which she won easily in the slop going 2 miles in a speed of 98.  She loves the dirt and has amassed a record of 7-3-0 in 12 starts.  She has shown ability to go the deep route and can close hard.  She rarely breaks the 100- speed barrier, which may be needed in this race and she jumps up to the G1 level.  I’d like to give her a race first before supporting at this level.

 

 

6.  Darkness Rising  11-1

 Record at 2-miles (dirt):   3 starts   1-0-1

 

There’s no doubt that Darkness Rising loves a nice wet track, as she has won 3 of 7 off-track starts and hit the board 6 times.  But this track will be dry and Darkness has 2 wins in 10 dry track starts.  However, she’s been on the board 50% of the time on the dry dirt surface.  This horse has a solid breeding line and will be making his second career graded level start.  She finished fifth in his only graded race, but was way back.  Not sure if she’s up to this level of racing yet.

 

 

7.  Incredible Squall   9-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):  5 starts   1-0-1

 

In 7 graded race starts, Incredible Squall has a record of 1-1-1 with her only win being in this race last year.  She makes a return to this racing, looking to defend her championship, which she won on a good track.  After winning that race, she had a drought of 10 races without a win before winning another good-surface track in a short allowance field.  Her speeds have been in the mid 90 to low 100 range in her last handful of starts.  Can she win again?  Of course, anyone can.  Will she? Doesn’t look too likely as she finished well back in her last 4 starts at 16 furlongs.

 

 

8.  Squirrel’s Gift   8-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):   no starts

 

The pace setter in this race could very likely be Squirrel’s Gift.  Squirrel is loaded with speed and it is very rare that she isn’t cutting the fractions.  As a dirt runner, she’s been on the board 12 of 16 races including 4 victories.  Summer has been a good time for her as she popped speeds from 104 to 106 from May through June while winning a pair of races in 3 starts.  Squirrel made her first start in a graded race in August running 9f with a speed of 97, failing to get the lead and finishing 6^th.  I don’t see a problem with her making it to the front in this race and she should be able to handle the distance.  She may not be able to hold off the closers, but she may be a factor in the triples.

 

 

9.  Slew of Cash  9-2

Record at 2-miles (dirt):  17 starts   8-7-0

 

How could you not like a horse with the name of Slew of Cash???  Ok, I’m a bit partial since the majority of horses I have bred contain the name Kash in it (and for the record, this is not one of my horses).  Slew of Cash is a master marathon runner as illustrated in her record above.  She has finished first or second in her last 7 starts at 2 miles and has 4 graded wins at this distance.  Her slowest speed for 2 miles is a 95 and that was two years ago.  Slew has a win streak of 4 in a row and has a very good chance to extend that.

 

 

10.  Maria De Haack  25-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):  1 starts   1-0-0

 

We’ll start with Maria De Haack’s sole race at 2 miles, which resulted in a win back in December.  She won easily as the even money favorite, with an unimpressive speed of 59 in a field of four.   Although the speed was dismal, she had no reason to burn herself out as she pretty much took a jog around the track.  She faces much tougher now, moving into her first ever stakes race.  She hasn’t raced the marathon distance since last December and she did break the 100 speed level in June with a 103 in an allowance race at 12f.  I think she’ll run near the front in the early stages of the race, but she looks to be outclassed in this race and she may get consumed by the field late in the race.

 

 

11.    Via Rossa  10-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):   no starts

 

Hard to believe that a route runner like Via Rossa, who is now 6 years old, has never run 2 miles in her 43 race history.  She’s been 1^st or 2^nd 25 times which includes twice in three grass runs.  Two of those grass races were this year and she ran in the high 90’s and I think she has potential there.  Ok…this is a very rare start at the graded level for this allowance/non-grade stake runner…in fact, its only her second attempt at this level.  She can run speeds over 100, but this has been a challenge for her in 2010, accomplishing it once in 8 starts.   I think the jump in class and distance may be too much for Via Rossa.

 

12.  Messy Missy  11-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):   1 starts   0-0-1

 

2010 has been a rough ride for Messy Missy this season.  In 7 starts, she’s posted a record of 1-1-0  and finished well back in 4 of those starts.  Her last race was in a low allowance race, apparently an attempt to fine her bearings, where she scored a speed of 82 and running her first sprint race since she was a two year old (6f).  She bounces to the opposite end of the spectrum, going the marathon route of 2 miles.  Consistency-wise, she hasn’t been reliable (although her best efforts since last year seem to be on a wet track).  With that said, there’s too much risk here.

 

 

13.    Coyote Smuggler  5-1

Record at 2-miles (dirt):   5 starts   3-0-0

 

Coyote Smuggler is a solid dirt runner coming in the money 22 times in 27 starts, including 11 wins.   She also has 3 graded wins in 7 races with two of them coming at 16f.   Since the start of  2009, Coyote has recorded speeds below 100 only a handful of times.   Coyote’s abilities should not be ignored.   

 

 

My top choice goes to the favorite Slew of Cash.  It’s hard to look away from her accomplishments at the 2 mile distance. 

 

Coyote Smuggler is another hard runner and gets top jockey W. Kewmwa (33% win, 74% ITM).  Jockey has a heck of a career going for him and gets a good horse to ride.

 

Squirrel’s Gift should be able to make the front end and may have enough left to hit the board.  Her speeds have been at their best of late and she may even go all the way.