The Lowdown – GII – $250,000

What a great day of racing coming your way from Surrey. There are six stakes races on the card, with three of them matching top two-year olds in graded competition. This race for the young ladies at 6f on turf includes a deserving favorite, an undeserving longshot and a group of talented turfers in between, that will lay it all on the line as they attempt to take down the Lowdown.

1 – APOCALYPTIC POET(IRE) – lionart – 7/1

Sire-Dylan Thomas

This filly has a fair amount of experience for a two-year old in August, having run five times in her young career, all on the grass. She picked up her one victory in her third maiden attempt, running a respectable 73 speed figure at this distance with strong late run from mid-pack. She has not shown much in her two tries versus stakes company, crossing in 7th each time. This field may not be as deep as those others, but it will likely take some improvement for this gal to factor here.

2 – NOE VALLEY(KY) – socalman – 6/1

Sire-More Than Ready

With two wins (one in a listed stake), a place and a show in four lifetime races, Noe Valley has never failed to hit the board. She typically runs as a stalker and that style could be successful in this race. Despite the impressive resume, there is plenty of uncertainty here, because her top career speed number is 70. Not bad, but not flashy in a graded field at this point in the year.

3 – MELENCOLIA(GB) – ceclaim11 – 6/1

Sire-Dansili

Here we have a well-bred filly, whose breeding certainly screams turf and that was proven out as she followed up a poor dirt debut with a solid maiden win at 5f on grass (66spf). She has just two lifetime starts and has had three months off since that maiden win. In that race she stalked the pace-setter and went by in the stretch. This one difficult to place, due to the extended layoff and scant racing history. Could improve and win or could be an also ran.

4 – VIADENT(KY) – ers – 7/2

Sire-Lewis Michael

Here we have a filly who has yet to face stakes competition, but looks like one of the favorites here, nonetheless. She has two wins and two seconds in her four career starts and has laid down 80 speed figures in her last two races in allowance company. She likes to drop well off the pace and fly home, so expect to see her charging at the leaders as the wire approaches.

5 – D’s SPIRIT(IRE) – thereason – 5/2

Sire-Invincible Spirit

This filly is the favorite and rightfully so. She has three wins in five starts, including the Grade 2 Coventry Steaks (82spf). She is versatile, running both on the lead and from a stalking position. She has shown strength in the stretch, never losing a lead coming home. Her only race out of the money was her last time out, the Grade 2 Bobby Papin, where she ran a close 4th and an 81 speed figure. If she improves at all on that outing, I think she will be VERY difficult to beat in this one.

6 – ZUZETTE(IRE) – lennoxlove – 9/2

Sire-Duke of Marmalade

With three wins in four starts, this filly has proven she knows how to reach to line first. Two of those victories have been impressive allowance efforts  (74/76spf) at the 6f distance of this race. She has never been more than a length off the lead at any call of her four races and most of her time has been spent in front. It will be interesting to see if she can avoid a big speed battle with D’s Spirit early on. If she can, I suspect she’ll be fighting amongst the leaders late.

7 – OTTO BE ELUSIVE(KY) – scandal – 7/1

Sire-Elusive Quality

A May switch to turf suited this filly well, as she broke her maiden (68spf) and took second in an allowance (66spf). She then jumped in against stakes company at 7f in July and finished 7th, but her 74 speed figure is respectable in this field and she has been a consistently strong closer. If she is somewhat close to the pace, she should have a shot at getting into the money here.

8 – CACAO BEANS(JPN) – nyrangers – 11/1

Sire-Special Week

So I’m baffled by the oddsmaker here. All this filly has done is gone 2-for-2 lifetime and one of those was the Grade 3 Malcolm. Now that race was 5f and the 76 speed figure isn’t off the charts, but to make one of the two graded winners in the field the last choice, is just plain stupid. Ok, rant over. She has run just off the lead before taking over at the top of the stretch in her two wins, so I will be fascinated to watch Cacao and D’s Spirit, as they will likely be trying to occupy the same space and carry out very similar race plans. This one is a definite contender.

Good luck to all the connections in this one. It should be a very interesting tactical race with most of the proven talent up front. This may just play into the hands of one of the mid-pack runners or closers to pull off a surprise, but I believe the favorite is just a bit too good to let that happen.

My prediction: 5-4-8-3 (disclaimer: there is virtually no chance of this being correct)