The Sickly and Rare Sun
The sun in action in Tasmania at this time of year ispretty rare and even when it is there it is usually a watery sickly thing thatlooks like they are half out of bed with a massive hangover and barely able todrink a glass of water much less shine some much needed warmth on what iscommonly called the human race on the planet Earth. That said, somehow the sun has managed it todayas we have the Sun In Action Memorial (memorial suggests a death – back to myopening statement) and probably most surprisingly is not that the track is ingood nick – firm turf to be precise, its also not that we have a reasonablefield with 7 runners but probably the most surprising thing of all is that itis ACTUALLY warm. Way to go sun. Full marksto you mate. Well it is the Stakes race today in Tassie and a good field aswell in terms of class, talent and just outright ego. Here are the runners:
1 AGOURA HILLS(KY)
Record: 21-9-6-3
Owner: locomotive
Jockey: K Best
Odds: 4/1
The main thing about thishorse is that it wants to win. But thenso does the rest of the field and the trainers. But this one is in good form, consistent and a decent record aswell. In fact her record boasts out of21 races, she has finished in the top 3 for 18 of them. You can’t get too much more consistency thanthat. So obviously one of the favouritesfor a place and is a genuine contender for the win. Has been running at themile for her last whatever number of runs – donkey years anyway – and whilegetting a few wins her last 2 in particular she faded a little at the end. The trainer in my expert opinion (haha) hasdropped her back a touch in distance to what we have here today. Expect big things from her today – well suitedto Stakes, totally consistent and with the drop in distance to 7.5 furlongs – awin is a real chance here.
2 CIRCASIANA(KY)
Record: 30-6-9-5
Owner: fersara
Jockey: S Pinkston
Odds: 3/1
Out of Giant’s Causeway(IRE)this one is also another fancied runner as much of these are due to the smallfield but also the evident class here. While in reasonable form and certainly good experience at this level,the distance may well prove to be too short. In her last 7 runs, while usually finishing in the top 3 in each ofthose runs she was wanting more distance as she crossed the line. A good closer, she did win in May last yearover 7.5 furlongs at Stakes level but only by a nose after a very strongfinish. Would love to see her run overthe mile distance or longer as that is where she looks like she would prove awinner. Should be challenging here butunlikely to win as she runs out of distance yet again.
3 ADVANTAGE(KY)
Record:48-12-8-6
Owner: wajima
Jockey: Do Tyrrell
Odds: 7/1
The long shot of the racewhich at 7/1 odds suggests how close a field this really is for the racetoday. Running predominantly atAllowance level of late is really just on the fringe of a Stakes runner. Has been performing well with a few placingsand her latest win back in June of this year. The distance again could be longer for her – Id definitely trial herbeyond the mile and probably well beyond the mile at that. So a step up for herhere and if she has a good day could potentially challenge. Potential is such a good work isn’t it? A little down on form just in her last 2races – is I think probably going to be up against it here.
4 SHORT N SWEET(KY)
Record: 27-5-5-4
Owner: super25
Jockey: M Bailey
Odds: 5/1
A little up down in form interms of results but her speed figures have been reasonably consistent. Alternating between both Stakes and Allowancelevel has been getting a few good placing results but nothing to really have aparty about. Her last race though is theone to look at in terms of a guide to how she will go here. A speed figure of 105 and a win at Allowancelevel over 7.5 furlongs. The trainerbased on that result has put her into the perfect race here on distance and shecertainly deserves another chance at Stakes level today. If her last run was a once-off she won’tfigure here – if she can repeat it has a good chance of winning. She is that type of runner… heads or tails… you choose…
5 OUACHITA(KY)
Record: 34-9-8-2
Owner: sangster
Jockey: A Tazdevil
Odds: 3/1
In good form and someconsistent results at Stakes level including 2 wins in a row which started 3runs back. Her last run was a disasterat a speed figure of 98 and finishing 9th across the line howevershe did step up significantly in class to a G2 race. Back to Stakes level here and she is a veryreal threat to the rest of these runners. She loves this distance and based on the figures she has been posting ofnorm should really shake these ones up. Plusshe has the good ol jockey nicknamed Devil on her so anything can happen. You may well remember the run that the Devildid a while ago where he cruised to a victory after a weaving chaotic runthrough the field wearing nothing but a cowboy hat on his head but that’sanother story for another time. Ouachitais one of the genuine contenders for an outright win here.
6 ORWELLIAN(IRE)
Record: 12-4-1-1
Owner: desimster4
Jockey: J Harzheim
Odds: 5/1
Compared to most of theseother runners this one out of Sadler’s Wells is a baby in terms of racingexperience with only the 12 runs in her career. 4 of those have been wins but she has been steadily improving with eachrun. Now starting to post someimpressive speed figures her last one being the best at 106 at Stakes level andrunning 2nd place over 6.5 furlongs. She’s looking like she wants a tad more distance and she gets ithere. While at 5/1 odds she looks veryvery capable to me, she looks in form and she looks like she wants to win. In fact she looks like she expects to winafter coming close a couple of times at this level. Would not be surprised if she got her maidenStakes win here today.
7 VITELLI(ENG)
Record: 26-6-3-4
Owner: super3
Jockey: C LeBlanc
Odds: 5/1
Also in good form and after 2consecutive wins at Allowance level and good speed figures she is back atStakes level to get another go at proving whether she can perform here or wouldrather stay at Allowance level with all the other Stakes wannabee’s. She actually looks pretty good though both interms of distance over 7.5 furlongs – no problem there – and speed in her last2 runs were 104 and 106 consecutively. So the upshot is she is in form, shelikes this distance – only question mark is the class level and we will knowthat as soon as the race ends. Anotherpotential one that could seriously challenge here.
Reasonable field of 7 runners I am tossing up between 1AGOURA HILLS(KY) and 5 OUACHITA(KY). Ireckon one of those will take the win. Small field really but still reasonableas well in terms of what we will see today. Should be exciting nonetheless!