Not All Things Are Bigger in Texas
I couldn’t believe it when I came across the Farewell to CryptoZot Stakes G1 race in my race program. Now everyone knows that everything is much bigger in
Hard to believe the featured race on the program has a purse much lower than 11 other races on the card. I tried to contact race officials about this and all I got from all of them was the proverbial “no comment”.
Well, despite this embarrassingly low purse, the 5th ranked horse Elusive High has made his way to the track. Will this be an easy win for him? Here’s how he compares:
1. Elusive High 9-2
Eluisive is 2-2-2 in eight graded starts. This four year old scored his best speed of 113 in the G2 Out of the City Handicap. He is the highest ranked horse in the field, by far, coming in at 5th, yet is not the favorite. He can run on the lead but more often sits back just off the early pace. There is tons of speed in this race and laying back may be jockey’s T. Ace (24% win) best strategy.
2. Go Gentle 7-2
The 51st ranked colt has caught the eye of the oddsmakers and is sent off as the favorite in this tight field. He’s a bullet that doesn’t know how to slow down, winning 13 of 23 starts and has only been off the board twice. He set his career best two weeks ago in the Wikipedigree.org Challenge (G3, 10f) with a speed of 113. Over his last 5 starts, he has averaged a speed of 108. He is very talented and is one to watch. But be aware that his last race was just two weeks ago.
3. Zoo Brew 5-1
Zoo Brew is nearly perfect on the dirt, hitting the board 12 of 13 starts which includes 7 wins. He has one graded race, which was on the turf last month, never finding much comfort with the track in that race. In June, he won the non-grade Steel Joe Special (10.5f) with an impressive speed of 116, fighting for the lead late in the race. Zoo likes to run on the front end and although this is his first graded race on the dirt, he looks like he’s ready to run at this level.
4. Devilworship 5-1
Devilworship has made his first two starts in graded company finishing with a fifth and a much improved second in his last race. He has averaged 105 over his last 4 starts, which include a pair of races with a speed of 110. Devilworship loves to lead the race and will have to fight hard to get it and then maintain it. He has had three races in his career where he was not leading at the quarterpole, and two of those he was off the board.
5. Dubai Deputy 9-1
This 5-year old has very nice breeding but just seems to have a hard time with consistency, This is displayed in his 7-6-0 record in 27 starts, just under 50% on the board. He has one graded start which yielded lukewarm results. His average speed over the last 4 starts is about 100, which is lower than his foes. I don’t see him pulling off the upset. He looks best when he’s running in the top 3 spots early on and that will be tough to do in this race.
6. Angels Fall 12-1
Angels Fall is an unlikely contender. He has tried 7 times at the graded level to scoop up a victory and only has one show for his efforts. He has averaged a speed of just under 99 over his last 5 starts, making him look overmatched against the other contenders in this race. He is pretty formidable at the non-grade and allowance levels but the graded level has proven to be a challenge for Angel.
7. Come to Fruition 9-2
Come to Fruition is making his debut in graded racing. He has been racing well of late and in his last 6 starts he has surpassed the 110-speed level 3 times, each of these were wins. During this span, his speed has averaged 109. He looks ready to compete at the graded level and needs to be watched.
8. Too Many Larry 4-1
Since last August Too Many Larry has not run a race with a charted speed below 104, showing himself to be very consistent. He has one graded start back in May where he finished well back in the G3 (12f) The TV Stakes. His last race was in June where he finished third at 9-5 with a speed of 105 in the non-graded Steel Joe Special, behind winner Zoo Brew. Too Many Larry will probably be the early trailer in the race but he does have a strong late kick. Jockey B. Carlson (9% win) will have to make sure he doesn’t spot the rabbits too big of a lead in this race.
A very nice race with lots of potential. I’m making Go Gentle my top pick as I believe he will get the lead and not give it up without a fight. He’s on the board about 90% of the time and gets experienced jockey C. Shoemaker (20% win).
Elusive High seems to be getting his act back together and should find a good spot to run just off the pace. Would not be surprised if he reaches wire first.
Zoo Brew could take it all. Last two speeds on dirt were over 110 and that includes one race in the slop.