On The Fence: Indefencible leads 11 Juveniles looking for a Breeders’ Bowl Spot
We’re three weeks away from the year’s most important day of racing, and the two year old turf division is pretty much equivalent to every other division: clear as mud. In an attempt to bring some clarity (though it may out to simply add to the confusion), an eclectic group of 11 two year olds have converged on Ostend for the G3, $150,000 Mohawk Juvenile, to be contested over 8 furlongs on the firm turf. The biggest name in the field is the talented and experienced Indefensible, currently ranked 23rd in the division. While he is the most likely participant in a Breeders’ Bowl race from this field, there are a number here for whom a win would send them into the Breeders’ Bowl with at least a live shot, provided they can make the field for whichever race they should choose.
Let’s take a look at the field:
Mohawk Juvenile
Grade III
One mile
Firm Turf
$150,000
All horses, 2 years old
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments |
1 | BOOKSMART | 7/1 | Started his career off the right way with a solid win over the main track, but followed that up with two disappointing efforts. A switch to the lawn breathed new life into this colt, who is bred to appreciate the added distance in his first route start. He’s the co-third choice, and he’s never been off the board over the grass. He figures to get a good stalking trip, and he’s a smart play at 7/1. | |||
2 | NORTHERN WELLS | 9/1 | Can’t fault the breeding, and the turn of foot that his sire showed over this trip to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile was absolutely breathtaking, but while War Chant did his best running from off the pace, this one is keen to go on early. Likely the early leader, and having just exited maiden ranks two starts ago, this may be a tough task to ask, especially if he is pressured early. | |||
3 | SIM SPINNING | 12/1 | Makes a big jump up from allowance conditions here today, and he hasn’t shown the same spark that some of these others have. I’m not totally counting him out, but I’d be surprised if he can compete with these at this point in his career. | |||
4 | RECORD SPEED | 8/1 | Makes his first trip out of Vermont a long one; after 4 consecutive starts in the American North East, he brings the show to Ostend, where the well bred son of A.P. Indy may be able to lay claim to one of the flashiest pedigrees on the premises. I love the running style, and he should be a force to be reckoned with when he starts to roll from midpack, even though he seems like he’ll ultimately appreciate 10 or even 12 furlongs. If the pace is hot enough, this one could be deadly. | |||
5 | TREBRE MACHIA(IRE) | 7/1 | He’s spent the tail end of too many races going in the wrong direction for me to regard him as a serious threat though, but with two year olds you never know. His sire was a brilliant winner of the Arc over 12 furlongs, so its hard to say for sure that this one won’t appreciate 8 furlongs, but he faded through the stretch in a G3 outing last time out and figures to do the same today. | |||
6 | WONDERBOY ESCOBAR | 11/1 | The speed figures say that his runs in stakes company have been on par with or better than his runs in allowance and maiden company, but that evidently isn’t enough. He needs to find another 8-10 speed points to compete with this group. He has already seen this distance and navigated the 8 furlongs with great success, so he can’t be completely counted out. | |||
7 | MICOUD | 8/1 | Took a huge step forward in his return to turf last time out, and he needs to move forward again to contend for the win. If he at least manages not to regress, he should have something to say when deciding the minor awards. | |||
8 | OMERTA CODE | 3/1 | Morning line favorite was an overpowering wire to wire maiden winner last time out, but I’m wary of horses like this coming back against experienced rivals. If he can make a clear early lead and move forward off of his last out, he’s long gone, but I think its more likely that he’ll regress when he’s hooked by classy speed today. A huge underlay, and while he looks like one that will someday be a stellar horse, this is a tough task to ask of him today. | |||
9 | VISCAY NEDIYM(AUS) | 11/1 | Maybe a slightly better horse over the main track, but he’s obviously capable over the turf as well. His biggest problem today is going to be that he’s likely to regress, not progress, off of that huge speed figure last time out, and when he’s hooked by three or four horses on the lead, he may lack the seasoning to gut out a victory. | |||
10 | INCREDIBLE BEATING(GB) | 13/1 | Comes out of the same race as Wonderboy Escobar, where both finished up the track. He’ll like the extra ground, but he’d need a huge move forward if he’s to compete here today, and its not the most likely of scenarios. | |||
11 | INDEFENCIBLE | 5/1 | If a Breeders’ Bowl contestant comes out of this race, it will likely be this colt, who makes his 8th start today. He actually backs up from the 8.5 panels of his last race, where he took down an ungraded stakes. His speed figures put him on top of this field, and he’s much more likely to repeat his last than Omerta Code is; this one has been holding his form fairly consistently for a prolonged period of time and there’s not a reason to think he won’t run the same way today. |