Trainers Overlook Midsoil Stakes

It’s once again time for the annual running of the Midsoil Stakes race in Spain.  A lot of mystery surrounds this race.  First, this is the 11^th running of the 6 furlong dirt race open to all 2-year olds.  Now, last year, the race was upgraded to a Grade 2 race from the Grade 3 level.  Now you’d expect that the purse would go up, but the exact opposite happened as it was reduced to $100k from $150k.  A true sign of the economic situation in Spain, I presume.

Now it is mysterious that this year’s event has attracted only 6 contenders, a record for the smallest field to compete in the event.  Last years race drew a slightly larger field.  The race will be run in the slop, as was last years.  Maybe the track condition deterred owners from entering?   The race has been run in speeds over 90 twice in the mid 2000’s.  It seems unlikely that this will occur this year, considering the rain in Spain.

Anyway, despite the record small field, only one runner has experience on a wet track.   Additionally, all but one horse is traveling from the states to Spain for this race, which could have an impact on these juveniles.  Let’s see if we can find a winner in this group!

1. Aspen   3-1

Aspen has a little Seattle Slew in his bloodline and comes off his maiden win at 6f with a speed of 69.  That race happened to be his first on the dirt and has potential for the future.  Others in this race have a little more experience and look to capable of besting Aspen in this race.  Give him some time and he may prove to be a worthy foe, but I don’t think its his time…at least not yet.

2.  Hotrod Andy  5-2

Hotrod Andy showed a nice boost in speed recording an 84 in his first non-grade race the Abstract Juvenile (6.5f).  He showed nice late speed to finish second, just short by ½ a length.  He gets jockey M. Zeus (33% win) to sit in the saddle for the journey.  Of all the jockeys in this race, Zeus is the only one to have won the Midsoil Stakes in the past, which he’s achieved twice.  Looks like a nice pairing.

3.  Spanish Fire   5-2

Thought this was kind of ironic.  Spanish Fire is racing in Spain this weekend.  Does it mean anything or is it just coincidence?  Not sure, but Spanish has won his last two races and has a record of 2-1-0 in his 3 career starts.  He easily won an allowance race running 6 furlongs in his last start as the even money favorite, cruising to the wire with a speed of 78.  I think the speed could have been hire if he had been pressured, so there is some promise in this one.  All of his races have been in New Mexico and he tries a different track for the first time.  As a side note, his first career start was on a good track where he finished 2^nd with a speed of 71.  Just for the record, the winner of that race went off at 131-1 which shows any horse can win.

4.  Well Sensed   7-2

Well Sensed put in a great effort when breaking his maiden at 7.5 furlongs.  He rallied in the second half of the race to draw off to a win by a stride at 11-1and bumping his speed up to 82 from 67 in the prior race.  I’m probably wrong, but my gut feels that this horse maybe a good one for longer distance races.  He drops in distance for this race and I think he may need the extra space to catch the field.  The drop in distance won’t help in this case, but then again, my gut feeling could be wrong.

5.  Two Breeze   8-1

This is the only horse that currently resides in Europe and doesn’t have much distance to travel (just shipping in from France).  This may be Two Breeze’s ace in the hole.   This front runner has won 2 of 3 races, all below 6f in distance.  He’ll need to make his speed last, which I think he can do.  But all of his races have been on the turf.  Leads to the question of how he’ll handle the dirt.  That unknown is risky, thus his 8-1 odds can reward those gamblers out there willing to take on this risk.

6.  Fashion Pole  5-1

Fashion Pole is a slow starter who can close strong in the last quarter of the race.  He’s got a win and a 2^nd in his two starts with speeds in the mid-70’s for both races.   Fashion will need to get his speeds up above 80, possibly mid 80’s to win this race and I’m not convinced that he’ll pull it off.

A lot of “what if’s” can be read into this race.  Anyone can take it depending on these 2-year old’s readiness, ability to travel, as well as liking the sloppy track.  So who do I go with?  I’m picking Hotrod Andy as my top choice.  If his last race is real, and it looks that way, he could run away with this one.

I’ll take the risk and use Two Breeze as my second selection.  He’s the local runner of the field and may show he likes the sloppy dirt track.  Rounding out my picks, the third slot goes to Well Sensed who will be closing hard.  He may not get to the wire first, but he should be able to pass by enough horses late to pick up some purse bucks!