G1 ST. JOHN’S IS A PUZZLER

Eastern Kentucky-The Grade I, $500,000 St John’s has attracted a cast of three year old fillies that makes handicapping and previewing difficult.  Sure there are some stars in this field, Usoz’s La Pata Daisy is having a terrific season and could be filly of the year, favored Grimreeser Sharp Ivor(Gb) appears to have talent and Rohan’s Tess Carlisle is an emerging force in the division.  Each filly in this race brings strength and weakness to this race and those variables will have an impact in regards to the end result.  As always, Official Hong Kong Track Handicapper, Pete ‘The Hatchet’ Wang attempts to bring order to chaos as he analyzes the field.  Oh by the way, ‘The Hatchet’s’ Tsing Tao long shot selection won G1 LA Derby at a very nice price.  Dismiss his musings at your peril.

PP1, Andycapper’s A.P. Andy(10-1, Moffett).  “Now I don’t know if I can live up to the hype of that intro.  If my selections lose, blame him and not me.  This race has many interesting variables.  Take this first filly for instance.  A.P. Andy is a daughter of A.P. Indy and the farther she has raced the better she has raced.  She began her career on the dirt, switched to the turf and has never been out of the money in nine turf starts.  Her last race was the longest distance she had run in her career and it saw her put up a lifetime best speed rating of 97 when racing in a nine furlong allowance.  This stalker closer has never gone ten furlongs but she won her last race, in hand, by over four lengths and her pedigree screams ten furlongs (if not even further).  A solid performer A.P. Andy has won three of her last four starts.  As a negative this is her stake and graded debut so class could be an issue.  Over the years I have seen many horses that go from the allowance ranks to the black type races and fail, especially that first attempt.  I’m going to bet that she can handle the class issue successfully so I’m going to make her my Tsing Tao long shot selection.  Put her on top and underneath for the big return.”

PP2, Foxybullet’s First Magnitude(12-1, Hibby).  “Her last start came in the G1 Ayala Cup in which she was a well beaten fourth.  That race was her stake and graded debut so I think that this daughter of Aldebaran will put forth a strong showing in this race.  First Magnitude has raced ten furlongs before and won that ten panel race with a 93 speed rating.  Closer is a solid filly, but she must bump up her speed rating to have a legitimate shot at a win.  I think she has a legitimate shot at a minor share.”

PP3, Goldsmith’s No More Options(Gb)(12-1, Zamora).  “This reformed claimer won a G2 in her last start.  Very nice claim!  This daughter of Diesis has now won five of her last six races with her only blemish being a sixth place finish in the 14 furlong G1 Dahlia Cup.  Should really enjoy the distance and is capable of a 100 plus speed rating in this race.  Biggest difficulty for her to overcome is the plethora of other early speed types.  She has shown a prior ability to rate so she doesn’t need to lead every step of the way to win this race.  I think she has the talent to win and I’m going to use this juicy long shot in my exotic boxes.”

PP4, Bulletday9’s Testing Fractions(Ire)(6-1, Head).  “I covered this filly in the Freiermuth Stakes where she almost won the race and ended up finishing a surprising second (at least to me).  She ran much better over the good turf then I thought she was going to.  This daughter of Best of the Bests will be winging it from the start.  Has a ten furlong stake score in which she went gate to wire.  She can stalk a hot early pace if she needs to as she did in the ten furlong Freiermuth.    Has a fifth place finish in a Grade I.  Many times you will see a horse have big efforts when they hit a firm turf again.  I think she will do that so I’m putting her in my exotic box.”

PP5, Fab19’s Getaloadofthis(12-1, Dorchak).  “Closer is a daughter of Distorted Humor out of an Ela-Mana-Mou mare.  Getaloadofthis is a two time stake winner and this race marks her graded debut.  In her last start she won a 10.5 furlong stake race with an 81 speed rating.  She will need to put up a much better speed figure to be competitive in this race.  She does have a 97 speed rating in week 2461 so the talent might be there to pull off a shocker.”

PP6, Lodog20’s Star Indy(14-1, Gomez).  “Daughter of Star Trace is an early speed type that is still 2x eligible.  Best speed rating in last eight races is a 92 that came in her last effort.  Last win came in week 2468.  Has raced in three graded races prior to this race and has only been an early speed factor.  Look for more of the same today.”

PP7, Usoz’s La Pata Daisy(4-1, Joseph).  “The number one ranked turf long filly decides to race the classic distance.  This filly has had a phenomenal year.  She is a potential filly of the year.  Hit a slight speed bump in her last race.  She was second in the 14 furlong Ayla Cup, a race that saw her five race consecutive graded win streak snapped. La Pata Daisy is now seven of fourteen and has earned over $1.8 million dollars.  In her fourteen starts, she has never finished worse then third.  Generally La Pata Daisy races at 12 furlongs and beyond.  Here she shortens up and that may cause her problems as the race could be just too short for her.  She does have a nine furlong win with a 96 speed rating.  She was third in an 11 furlong race with a 101 speed rating.  I’ll include her in my exotic boxes.  A Grade I win at this distance will look very nice on the resume when the voters go to work at the end of the year.”

PP8, Grimreeser Sharp Ivor(Gb)(7-2, Desantis).  “Daughter of Mtoto is the slight favorite based on her impressive G3 score in week 2480.  In that race she closed to win  with a 108 speed rating.  That figure is, by far, the best in the field.  After that huge effort, her connections entered her two weeks later into the G1 Del Webb Oaks and she bounced to a 95 speed rating.  Well rested, this closer is going to be tough and is the probable smart play.  Include her in the exotic boxes.”

PP9, Wistful3’s Scimitarra(Gb)(8-1, Obwan).  “Closing Daughter of Diesis hasn’t raced on the lawn in a very long time.  Last time she did she was two and she had a win in four starts.  One time Oaks hopeful was third in the G3 Louisiana Oaks way back in week 2426.  Has a couple of restricted Stake wins since that time, but has struggled a bit in open company.  Move to turf could spark a big revival since she is bred for it.”

PP10,  Rohan’s Tess Carlisle(4-1, Caves).  “An exciting young filly.  Tess has won four of eight races and has earned $348,000.  In her last race she was second in the G1 Sun Dancer that was contested at ten furlongs.  In the race prior to that she was second in the Delpenn vs Gr Simsters Smackdown that was also contested at ten furlongs.  In those races she put up 102 and 103 speed ratings.  When the bell sounds, this daughter of Rainbow Quest will play catch me if you can.  The field will have a tough time catching her so use her in your exotic box.”

Until next time, may the racing Gods favor you.