The Bronx (Bargain Bred Stakes for 3 yos)

A field of nine bargain bred three yr olds gather in New York including Bargain Derby winner Mimbo Hill who is your 5/2 morning line favorite. The Bronx is contested over a mile and 3/8ths and is the Bargain Series equivalent of the real life Belmont Stakes. Last year’s edition of The Bronx was won by Hawk’s Woftam Star who pulled a Birdstone and spoiled Shoeless Greek’s attempt at the Bargain Triple Crown. Let’s take a look at the contender’s and assess the Derby winner’s attempt at a double.

1. Payard – Was a well beaten 8^th in the Class Ack at two but has become a respectable performer in starter allowances since that effort. Failed to fire last out in the 100 Guineas finishing an uninspired 8^th. Only dirt start occurred four races back and was a very run of the mill 70 speed figure seeming to indicate this one’s preference for the grass. Despite all that oddsmaker’s like his late running style and think it could translate to longer distances.

2. Tawqeety Bird – I think I saw a Tawqeety Bird, I did I did. Ok now that, that is out of my system its time to assess the chances of this son of Argentian sire Tweet. Upon close inspection its quickly realized that this colt has only raced on the main track one time and that was back in his maiden debut in a BBRS restricted maiden event. He finished a respectable third that day but has done all his running on turf since then amassing four wins in the process including open length wins at longer distances. To me that makes him an intriguing long shot especially at 12-1 odds.

3. Slightly Mad – Plano’s son of Greinton failed to fire in his last two finishing well beaten in both The Ozark and Bargain Derby appearances. Hard to forecast much improvement since he will face many of the same today but perhaps he will like the extra distance more then some.

4. Ohmyohmy – Hard luck son of Brooklet (Montbrook) is still a hard luck maiden but does has hit the board in 6 of 9 lifetime races. Trainer Hawkz is playing a hot trend as he has claimed this colt last out and immediately entered him in the Bargain Series. That has produced winner’s lately most recently in the 100 Guineas so it will be interesting to see if that continues to be a growing trend. Odds of 7-1 show handicappers are respecting this noted bargain trainer and that angle here today.

5. CT’s Rocket – Lifeline’s three year old colt by Governor Brown (Kingmambo) has danced every dance possible thus far and has been real consistent thus far finishing 2^nd in The Ozark and third in the Derby. Failed to take to the turf last out finishing 19 ½ lengths off the leader but it is easy to toss that race and expect a return to form today.

6. Leave – This Maryland bred has a nearly identical angle and line as #4 Ohmyohmy even down to the trainer. Has yet to win in 6 lifetime attempts but has been in the money half of the times and his effort last out at 8.5 furlongs show it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that he could run big today but stablemate Ohmyohmy is being pounded more at the window.

7. Mimbo Hill – Knightmare’s Bargain Derby hero is a well deserving 5/2 favorite off that signature win and should be real tough again today. He was coming late but got too far back and only managed to finish 4^th last out in the 100 Guineas but he should be no worse for the effort and with his proven ability at longer distances it’s a bit surprising he is not more like a 9/5 favorite. I’ll be as bold to say your looking at your winner right here unless he encounters severe racing trouble..

8. Textbook Case – Son of Freud won The Ozark and finished a respectable 2^nd in The Bargain Derby despite leading most of the way in uncontested fashion. Odds makers like his front running consistency and have him as the 3-1 2^nd choice but one really has to question how he is going to hold off Mimbo Hill and other closers today when he failed to do that feat at shorter distances. Must be used in exotics since he should hang on for a share.

9. CTR’s Og – Today’s 28-1 longest shot on the board is a son of Seignorial a sire by Kingmambo standing in Australia. Finished a well beaten 12^th in The Ozark and 8^th last out in the Gold Coyote sprint so his long shot status is well earned and he will likely be  little more then a possible pace consideration today.

Prediction:

Just as in The Bargain Derby, Textbook Case will lead this race a long way and will likely be able to have his own way on the front end which is always dangerous. It is unlikely that speed can be sustained; however, so I am picking Mimbo Hill to win the Derby/Bronx double and consistent CT’s Rocket to claim the place spot. 

For those looking at superfectas my order is 7-5-8-4.

Good luck to all involved and if you have considered joining the Bargain Series now is a good time with half price bargains to be had the month of June!