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race 4344.3312
E1, The St. James Tavern-G2, 3yo M 8F Turf

We travel to Royal ascot this week for some strange reason. This race should be run next week makes no sense it is run the wrong week like the other major European classic had been the other week. This is in fact the most important 3yo only race in the world. Simple fact is the winners of this race have over the past 30 years compiled a better record at stud than the winners of any other 3yo only race anywhere in the world. It does therefore seem stupid it is only a grade 2 race in the sim.

The fact it is such a good race is no surprise as the winners of the Guineas in England, Ireland and France usually clash in this race as well as horse that missed those races through being slow to come to hand and inexperience. It is a real clash of the titans and almost always takes a top class horse to win it. When looking for the best horses for sim stallion ratings, this is where Mike should start his search each year.

If we look at the winners over the last 30 years these sires horses stand out.

Kris was an outstanding race horse never coming outside of the first two more importantly he was a champion sire and champion broodmare sire. He still is a top class broodmare sire. If we take 2009 he was one of only 9 sires in the world to have over 3 grade 1 winners as a broodmare sire. If we consider one achieved that on runners from Argentina (poor form) and two are dual hemisphere sire that shows how good he really is. He should be within the top 30-40 dam sires in the game. He obviously needs an upgrade at the expense of now washed out dam sires think Northern Dancer, Nijinsky as two examples.

Marju I mentioned him in a sire showcase a while back. He has gone on to prove my point. He was the sire of the Irish 1,000 winner this year and he was the dam sire of the Irish 2,000 winner who is anti post favourite for the real live version of this race. He has another grade 1 winner in Hong Kong. That is up with the best sires in the world and his sim rating is an insult compared to many others.

Kingmambo he won this race but would have been thrown out in his native France. Those are the rules though. He has gone on to be a top class sire. He is no basically infertile and really should not be in the sim getting 150 runners a year he should be retired. He is though a top class dam sire now. He was joint leader in that category in 2009 with 6 winner’s world wide the same as Last Tycoon interestingly the sire of Marju and himself serious underrated.

Grand Lodge he was another good sire. He dies young but did sire the outstanding Sinndar amongst others. He is starting to get going as a dam sire now as well. He has five in 2010 which is good considering the world’s best dam sire Sadler’s Wells only has nine. His sim rating does not reflect his ability and he is another sire in need of upgrading. To put things in perspective he has the same number of graded dam sire winners in 2010 as Mr. Prospector and Seeking The Gold of course these two are stupidly over rated but it is a fair reflection of this horses class and the quality of horses he was bred to in his later years at stud.

Starborough was never a top class sire but was a good race horse from a very good family. He is though the sire of one very good horse. The top class sprinter Overdose, he was unfortunately injured last year which was not good for horse racing. It is hoped he comes back to the track soon and is as good as ever. It will make for some exciting racing the 2,000gns purchase exported to Hungary winning top class races.

Dr Fong was a decent racehorse and has done ok as a sire. He has 5 graded winners and another 22 listed winners. He moved to France for 2010 which could have been a help for several reasons. Both his grade 1 winners stated out in France as racehorses and more importantly France is the country unlike the US, GB, Ireland and Australia where finance is not an issue. Most of the new players from all over the world have horses based in France. As a sire in the game he should get 4 or 5 stakes winners per year from a full crop.

Giant’s Causeway he fitted the profile of a top class sire. Grade 1 winner at two, grade 1 winner against his own age group (this race) at three and an open age grade 1 winner. He went to stud with the right profile and delivered. He was the leading US based sire in 2009 on the number of graded winners in fact only two sires there managed to break 10, he had 13. His sim record though is somewhat silly and the 20%+ stakes winners is way to high around 9% is far more realistic and to think of him as better than the likes of Montjeu and Galileo is just plain wrong. There are some serious negatives in all that he is a top class sire. His best racehorse is Shamardal from his first crop and I will talk more about him later. A O’Brien has no 2yo’s sired by him in his stable this year that is not a ring of confidence either. The other factor is he now shuttles to Argentina rather than Australia where the money and kudos is. All that being said he is none of the world’s best sires in the top twenty five with some ease.

Rock Of Gibraltar he is slightly unlucky in 2010 as his 2yo’s will be in Japan. That happened to his sire Danehill but he was still an outstanding stallion far better than Giant’s Causeway by a long way. He has done well at stud without really hitting the headlines, mind that was a given really considering his record as a racehorse. He was one of only 12 sires with 10+ graded winners in 2009 and when two did most of their scores in Brazil and Argentina is can be said he was in the top 10 sires last year. He is therefore a decent sire and in truth given crop size and numbers not that much worse than Giant’s Causeway there sim abilities do not reflect this, the gulf between the two is way too high one overrated the other underrated.

Azamour has his first crop three year old this year. They are as expected improving with age. He has two graded stakes winners which is not a bad return to be honest with you in real life terms. As with many Aga Khan bred they will take a time to develop and as time goes by I would expect the number of graded winners to increase. He is likely to do well as a dam sire in years to come as Night Shift his sire does well in this sphere. He is a decent sire with a reasonable future as stud without being a superstar. A look at many past horses who have stood at the Aga Khan studs would give you an idea of his long term ability. The problem is many of those are undervalued in the sim think Kahyasi and Top Ville to name but two.

Shamardal he was a very good race horse in fact a grade 1 winner at two and more importantly the best racehorse of his age in the world that year. He followed that up as a 3yo with two classic wins and this race before injury retired him his only loss coming on dirt in Dubai. The only blemish going into his stallion life was the lack of an open age grade 1. He has though so far done really well. He already has six graded winners to his name lead by the dual classic winner the only male one in Lope De Vega who looks a serious racehorse. In fact he could be the top choice selection as a sire for 2011. His pedigree is ideal for Montjeu (especially) and Sadler’s Wells mares. Shamradal is an easy second best second crop sire behind Dubawi and both of them appear to need serious upgrades come the end of the year. The US sires who were rated higher than them even though the evidence did not support this look in need of serious downgrades that has already started to happen for the hopeless Ghostzapper.

The last three winners of the race all look like decent stallions in the making yet none have any runners in real life for obvious reasons so far.

Excellent Art was a graded winner at two and grade 1 winner at three, he was also placed in several open age grade 1 race’s but did not win. He is the only son of his highly successful sire Pivotal on the Coolmore roster. He is a fine looking animal and ha a good American female family. He therefore has been well supported and with decent mares two. He should get lots of winners and his offspring have a good chance of progressing with age. He has been in my opinion been given a decent rating in the sim and is well worth using as he is available most Saturdays.

Henrythenavigator he was a graded winner at two and multiple grade 1 winner at three including an open age grade 1. He was sent by Coolmore to America as his sire Kingmambo has not got a great record as a sire of sires. That though has been blown out of the water somewhat with King’s Best siring the winners of both The Derby and the Japanese version in the last week. This horse hated any ground with any give in it. He also had Nureyev and Sadler’s Wells close up in his breeding so looked ideal for Danzig line mares, so the US is not the ideal place for him. He had great acceleration. It would be a major shock if his Southern Hemisphere offspring were not far more successful than those bred in the northern hemisphere given ground and racing style and the makeup of the broodmare population. He does look like a Spinning World to me and could well be a failure. Compared to New Approach he looks seriously over rated mind that horse is massively under rated.

Mastercraftsman was another good racehorse he was a dual grade 1 winner at two the same races as his sire Danehill Dancer which will be seen as a positive to breeders. He was also a far better race horse and dual grade 1 winner at three. He was also placed at open age grade 1 level. He was well supported by Coolmore and got a lot of 2yo type mares a swell. He will do well at stud and it would be a major shock if numerically he did not easily beat Sea The Stars on number of 2yo winners. It is to hard to tell if his rating is reasonable at present. He should be capable of around 4-6% stakes winner to runners if the statistics are right.

BINION’S HORSHOE (IRE) DUKE OF MARMALADE (IRE) x RED RANSOM x MILL REEF

Duke Of Marmalade was a very good horse at four but not top class at three. Interestingly his Storm Cat half sister is a 2yo in Ireland this year and looks nothing special, though that is no surprise as Danehill was a far superior sire to Storm Cat. This horse is an improving animal. He has the profile of a horse that will do well later in the year and at four. His last speed figure was good and he needs a repeat of that to make the frame here. This race may come a bit quick in terms of development but it would be no surprise to see him win at this level in the future

K’S AESCHYLUS (KY) GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x KINGMAMBO

As mentioned above this horse’s sire is very poor indeed and in truth is dead in the water as a sire already. His owner’s comments on horse racing recently would make the fall from grace look likely to be even quicker and a major downgrade for all the sires at that stud looks required for 2011. This horse has been really well placed by his owner his only loss a second place. He has to be ready to try his hand a t this level and a stakes win over the trip suggest it should not be a problem. If bridging the gap to graded company has a great chance and race record suggests he will.

AHEAD AND ZILLION (KY) FUSAICHI PEGASUS x A.P. INDY x SADLER’S WELLS

Well if there is a skid pedigree for turf this is it. The front end is horrible and just reflects how bad some of the ratings in the sim are. Fusaichi Pegasus has been a real dud at stud and A P Indy has a terrible record as a turf sire and his European runners are extremely poor if you read through the last 5 editions of Timeform you would struggle to find any decent horses with him as a dam sire. This is a good horse with graded winning form and decent speed figure. These are important factors at this level. His last run may have been a bit of a bounce after two good efforts. The only worry would be as he won at graded level as a 2yo and that the slow burners catching up to him in ability terms. The shift in power does start to happen around this time of year.

PREPOSTERAGEOUS (ENG) MEDICEAN (GB) x DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x ROBERTO

Medicean is starting to struggle a bit as a sire but still has a good overall record saying that he has sired a grade 1 winner this year. This horse has a very good record. He has not won this year which is a bit of a worry. His last start was his best ever in terms of speed figures and was in a classic race. A repeat of that form would see him in with a good chance of making the frame. As with the horse above he could be vulnerable to an improving sort though.

MILES MILITIS (KY) MAJESTIC WARRIOR x WAR CHANT x STORM CAT

This horse’s sire is pure skid material on turf. In real life he would have almost zero chance of siring a horse to run in this race. Tagula who has the real life favourite would never get a horse good enough to run in race like this and he was a champion sire!!!!!! Something needs to be done to get the balance right. There are plenty of sires with based outside America who are far superior race horses and have little or no chance even given the quality of the mares they have covered of doing anything in the sim. This horse is improving nicely with racing and a switch to turf. He still has to win at graded level and this appears to be a tough race. He can run well but it is hard to see him winning this race.

WINGED SPIRIT (AUS) HUSSONET x INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x IN THE WINGS (GB)

Hussonet is a strange stallion he did really well in Chile but was totally useless when based in Kentucky and has done ok in Australia. He has been given a high sim rating on the back of one very good horse Weekend Hussler who won a shed load o f graded races a few years back. The same thing happened with Special Week on the back of one horse in Japan winning a lot of restricted stakes races. This is just not right winning lot’s of prize money from one horse does not a top class stallion make. You have to look at the overall record of the offspring in graded stakes races to get the right facts. This is a decent horse and he has got a good record. He can handle graded class as well. The thing that sticks out at me is no route wins and that may well be his problem in this race he just maybe a sprinter.

STRAVISIS (JPN) STRAVINSKY x DIESIS (GB) x GREEN APPLAUSE
This horse’s sire started off at stud with a bang. The problem is he never built on that record and was soon sold to the waste lands of Japan by Coolmore. Johannesburg will probably suffer similar fate now as his stud life is following a similar pattern. This horse has been putting up decent speed figures but coming up short in a variety of stakes races. This is a hot race and it would appear he is going to struggle to win here. I am sure he would benefit from dropping down to allowance level of picking up a couple of wins before shooting for the heights again.

MISTY MORNING (IRE) MONTJEU (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x BATES MOTEL

Montjeu has failed to have a classic winner so far this year. He still though is joint top on worldwide grade stakes winners with Oasis Dream and Street Cry obviously Oasis Dream has the best results as he has never shuttled so therefore has achieved the result with the least runners. Most people would be amazed to see a Montjeu*Kingmambo horse running over a mile most tend to need 12f that is no surprise given Montjeu stamina index which is over 11f. t this trip he is one of the two best sires in the world. This horse is one of slow burner improver types. He is winning his races showing improved speed figures as well. If he does not bounce he has a very good chance in this race. He good well go onto better things later in the year and as a 4yo.

MONSUNNINESADDLED (GER) MONSUN (GER) x FORTY NINER x SADLER’S WELLS

Monsun has had a quiet year so far in real life. He has had over 30 graded winners over the last seven years though so that is good record. He has a very high stamina index and it appears many of his runners in the sim fail stay anywhere near as far as should be expected saying that the sim like American racing does not cater for middle distance horses that well. This horse failed to stay in the French Derby last time and is now dropped back in trip. He ran well in the German 2,000 and a repeat of that form will give him place prospects in what looks like a good race.

BOY AM I GOOD (IRE) RAVEN’S PASS x GALILEO (IRE) x KINGMAMBO

It is fair to say Raven’s Pass has been somewhat unimpressive in the sim. What makes it worse is that he has a similar record to Henrythenavigator as a racehorse as well. He is at a better stud for the broodmare population and is by a sire lien in fashion. He should have been rated higher than the other horse. This horse is really well bred mind there could be a few too many issues with temperament in a real life horse though. This horse excels on off tracks and is improving. He is worth a try at stakes level as well. I am not sure this is his best trip the evidence is not conclusive on this. He has the ability to run well at this level but there are too many x factors to make him a selection.

SONGS OF PRAYER (KY) MR. GREELEY x ORATORIO (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD

Mr Greeley was flavor of the month a couple of years ago. He has had 12 graded winners in the last 7 years. It shows he is someway removed from the best stallions in the world and should be capable of a couple of graded winners a year in the sim. This is what is happening so Mike has done an excellent job with his rating. This horse has improved for a switch to turf. He is on the upgrade as well. His first graded run saw him run on well. He could well improve on that here. My only negative would be the trip he may just be that bit better over slightly further. He has got a graded win in him somewhere but I do not think this race.

DUTCHMAN BREW TED (ENG) DUTCH ART (GB) x FORESTRY x WOODMAN

Along with Raven’s Pass Dutch Art is the only horse of the sires I saw race in the flesh. He is the best horse sired by Medicean as well. He has been well supported by Cheveley Park stud as well. There are a few nice mares they have in foal to him at the next Tattersalls sale in case anyone wins the lottery and decides to go into breeding racehorses as a hobby. He should get plenty of winners and some of course will gain black type success. This horse looks up against it in this race. Saying that he is graded placed but on the flip side was beaten in a nw3l last time out. It may be of interest to up him in trip next time to see what happens.

As for my selections for this race:-

1 K’S AESCHYLUS exciting prospects looks to step up here
2 PREPOSTERAGEOUS looks to maintain his high level of form
3 MISTY MORNING looking to continue progress