Pea Shooter could hit anybody

By ITCH

At first glance, the $250,000 Grade 2 Pea Shooters Handicap in South Dakota looks like an evenly matched, wide open race.

We’ve got five horses at the top of the qualifying order with more than 100 stakes points each, and the morning line oddsmaker had a very hard time determining a clear favorite. One horse is 5-1, and three more are made the co-second choice at 6-1. Eight of the 12 horses entered in this race are single-digit odds.

Based on those preliminary observations, we can anticipate a highly contentious six-furlong, main track sprint.

At the top of the list is the No. 7 colt in the 3yo dirt sprint division. It’s HORUS for the Ovidius Stable, a one-barn outfit that is not affiliated with any residency. This 3yo son of Distorted Humor is the second-straight sensation out of this stable’s fine Grade C Storm Cat mare BASTET, who is now 2-2 in producing top-class Sim runners. Horus obviously is a talented runner, qualifying in the top position for a Grade 2 race. His half-sister, the 4yo filly KITHARA by Gone West, is a regular shooter of triple-digit speed figures as she currently is competing very successfully at the non-graded stake level. Bastet has produced nothing but stakes horses so far, and it will be interesting to see what sire Ovidius will pick for this mare in the 2010 breeding season. Meanwhile, it’s a big race for Horus, who cuts back in distance here off a disappointing sixth-place run in the Grade 3 Bluegrass Derby Trial. That was this colt’s first try at anything other than a sprint, and Ovidius obviously was less than satisfied with the result. He cuts back to the sprint distance here, and gives his colt another try at the graded level. Horus is zero-for-two so far in graded stakes, but finished closer when he tried it sprinting than last out at a flat mile. This is a colt looking for a little bit of graded stakes redemption in the Pea Shooters.

Good, old Foghorn Leghorn swings a leg up onto the second-place qualifier, Supertaffy’s PINCHINGDALE. The first thing that jumps off the page at you with this brown son of Graeme Hall is his massive career earnings. This colt has earned $680,000 in only nine career starts. Anytime you see a huge dollar amount like that early in a horse’s career, you have to suspect he was part of an added-money restricted race, and that is indeed the case with this colt. He earned the lion’s share of that $680,000 by winning the Grade I Long May It Wave restricted sprint. Don’t go thinking this late runner is only a restricted-level horse, however. He validates himself with a third-place finish in the Grade I Hopeless Stakes in open company. He also beat 19 horses in that restricted race in which he earned a 102 speed figure, so that very well may be a lot tougher race than seen in a lot of restricted-company, big-purse specials. He’s No. 10 in his division, but enters this race off two poor performances. We’ll give him a ready excuse two back in the Grade I California Derby. That was nine furlongs, which is no kind of distance for a sprinter. But, that ugly sixth-place finish last out when facing a non-graded field of only seven going 7.5 furlongs is much harder to forgive. A poor race in that fairly easy field tells you something is amiss with this colt. Supertaffy will be looking for a form reversal with the cutback in distance here in South Dakota on Saturday.

In the Irish 2000 Guineas, I was jumping up and down and shouting from the hilltops to bet Balata’s BLACK GOLDNINER, who is a ridiculous overlay at 10-1. The Pro is getting a lot more respect from the morning line oddsmaker in South Dakota than the one in Ireland, however. His PAPA BEAR CC is installed as the 5-1 favorite here in the Grade 2 Pea Shooter. While Black Goldniner was a champion on Breeders Bowl Day last fall, Papa Bear CC was an also-ran. This light gray son of Unbridled’s Song was only 10th in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile. (The pain of that defeat surely was washed away quickly in the glow of Black Goldniner’s triumph in the Juvenile turf.) However, Papa Bear CC has rebounded quite nicely indeed for the greatest golfer in the history of Calgary. He brings a two-race winning streak into this Grade 2, and earns his status as the favorite with a big 104 speed figure last out while capturing a non-graded stake this distance. That speed figure is an obvious eye-catcher, but also impresses for a subtle reason. It was earned in a short field of four. A lot of times in shorter fields, you’re going to see a smaller speed figure because there was not that much to beat. Papa Bear CC defies that normal logic and may have shown just how eager he is to improve by going that fast in a short field. Expect this colt to take back early and show a strong late kick.

Metallinut will represent the Universal Racing Club with the first half of a two-pronged entry with ANY GIVEN CAT, a hit-or-miss chestnut son of Any Given Saturday. Once again, we have a young horse whose career earnings are inflated by a restricted race. Any Given Cat has $443,000 in career earnings, but most of that was earned in the very dubious A Day at the Races With URC restricted race, which drew a field of only six. Any Given Cat went to post as the even-money favorite in that butter-soft race despite having finished 14th and 11th in his previous two races. But, before we throw Metallinut’s colt too far under the handicapping bus, let’s note his fine second-place finish three back in a Grade 3 this distance. Even if he earned most of his money in a phony race, Any Given Cat established his true class with that second-place finish in a pretty big field of 12. He earned a triple-digit speed figure last out when a close-up fourth in a Grade 3, so this is a legitimate graded-class sprinter who belongs in this race.

GIVE EM THE HYSIGN is really struggling lately for the Bloodrock Stables. After watching his colt blossom into a stakes winner at sprint distances, Blookrock went in search of an entry into the Bluegrass Derby and instead got a nasty three-race losing streak. Give Em The Hysign was beaten only 5 3/4 lengths when eighth in the Florida Derby, but then really got his fanny tanned in his next two graded route races. Bloodrock learns his lesson here and cuts back to Give Em The Hysign’s preferred sprint distance. It will be interesting to see if this brown son of Lemon Drop Kid can revert right back to his former winning self with the cutback in distance, or if those three consecutive poor races will have a lingering effect. If this colt can indeed right himself that quickly, he’s dangerous because he’s won big races sprinting. He was the Sunshine Millions champ at this exact distance, and also took down the Grade 2 Saint Vincent. If he runs his race, he’ll come running late.

The second half of the Metallinut entry is SMOKIN’ TARIAT, a dark gray son of Smoke Glackin who remains in search of his first triple-digit speed figure. Might he finally earn it here in this Grade 2? Recent trends point that way. He’s earned ascending speed figures of 85, 90, 93 and 96 in his past four races and shows a lifetime best of 99. Perhaps the best handicapping point in this colt’s favor is his affinity for the six-furlong distance. All four of his career wins, including three non-grades stakes triumphs, have come at six furlongs. He’s playing his game on Saturday, that’s for sure. Now, the question if if his strong six-furlong race is good enough to earn a placing in a graded stake. He’s proven himself at the non-graded level, for sure. So far, there is a pretty clear class ceiling for this colt, as he’s managed only a solitary third-place finish in four graded tries. This is where he belongs. Why win another non-graded stake? He’s just got to prove himself at this graded level and that’s the challenge before this colt.

Dixie Alert! Dixie Alert! Dixie Alert! Seventh-place qualifier LAST STONE is trained by Sim legend Dixiedotco, who has been proclaimed in this column many times as the best in history. Last Stone would get respect from this writer on his connections alone, but it’s not only the name of the trainer that catches the handicapper’s eye with this brown son of Curlin. Equally impressive are that three-race winning streak and big 101 speed figure last out this distance. This is a horse on a roll and it makes sense that he earns this Grade 2 chance. He’s got the back class, as well. In reviewing this horse’s 12-race career, we can see why Dixie thought he was a route runner. He was second in the Grade I Parasmus Mile in his ffith career start, but then went on a three-race losing streak that saw Dixie start looking at options. You can see as this great trainer searches around for this colt’s best chance, and seize upon the cutback to sprint distances in his last two. He’s hot and there is more than one reason to like Last Stone in this race.

Alishan will be looking for a form reversal with COLAC SMOKE, a light gray son of Smoke Glacken who has been off the board in four of his last five races. Even with his recent struggles, this colt already is the second best of eight horses produced by Alishan’s Grade E Gone West mare Slew Rush, who has been a regular producer for this outfit. The best of Slew Rush’s get so far is GALS GONE WEST, a 6yo daughter of Saint Liam who has racked up $658,000 in career earnings For now, Gals Gone West will rank as the best of this family, but Colac Smoke could have a lot to say about that. Admittedly, his current form is shaky. Especially troubling was that allowance race four back when he was 1/5 and still missed the board. However, there is talent behind this colt and it may be revealed by the cutback in distance to six furlongs. This colt has won twice at this distance, and we’ll draw a line through that failed route attempt last out. Our main factor in having to take a stand against this colt here is his career record at the graded stakes level. He’s zero-for-five so far, and it’s hard to see a reversal of that trend based on his current form. Nonetheless, I hope I’m wrong and Alishan gets her first graded stakes win.

Next comes BREADMAN, a regally-bred son of A.P. Indy (Grand Slam X Affirmed) who is exhibiting a definite good-race bad-race pattern. This horse either wins or he’s off the board. In 10 career starts, he’s won four, but only been second once a never was third. Breadman is based on a very good horse, Kauffmac’s Grade B DOCTOR G. That horse banked more than $750,000 in only 27 career starts. Doctor G was a Grade I winner sprinting on the main track so it’s not hard to see that the apple has not fallen far from the tree here. You can tell the non-affiliated River Ridge Farms thought a lot of Doctor G by the fact that the money was spent on A.P. Indy as the sire. Breadman certainly has not disappointed for Kauffmac as you can never feel too bad about a multiple stakes winner, but it’s had to have been hard to watch him run off the board as many times as he has. This Grade 2 represents a definite class challenge for this horse, who has been soundly beaten both times he’s tried graded company in the past. Who knows? According to the good-race bad-race pattern, he’s due for a good race.

Now we’re getting down the the last few, all of whom will be attempting serious class jumps as they’ve all got only 15 stakes points or less. DIRTY KID fits that bill, but remains dangerous nonethless based on his current three-race winning streak and his connections. This brown son of Johannesburg races for CoolK’s Kevoman Stables, which easily is recognized as a high-class outfit that knows how to win big races. If CoolK says this colt is ready for the big jump from N4L allowance to a Grade 2, we have to put some stock in that placement. One thing to like is that all three of his victories on his current winning streak were at Saturday’s distance of six furlongs. He also broke his maiden at six furlongs, so that’s four total wins at this distance for this colt. He’s playing his game, and the question will be whether he can handle Grade 2 competition at his favorite distance.

CITIZEN CAT only has 11 stakes points for Selurnivek’s Worldwide outfit, representing the Hong Kong Racing Stables, but looks awfully good coming in here off that impressive second-place run in the Bluegrass Derby Trial. Worldwide decides to cut back to the sprint distance here off a string of six consecutive route races for this brown son of the affordable Surf Cat. This colt has to be considered very hot right now off that big race in the Bluegrass Derby Trial. In his previous races, he had shown a tendency to press the pace without much a late kick. He showed a whole new ballgame in the Derby Trial, when he accelerated home from fifth to be second. He earned his first lifetime triple-digit speed figure in that race and also got his first career graded stakes placing. He goes for his second here Saturday and if he’s on his game, you may seem him flying late in the lane.

FIRE CROWN is going to try to win one for the bargain breds, as this son of the very affordable Fire Blitz reaches for the Grade 2 rung for Karie Stables. Representing the Great Plains residency, this 15-stable outfit certainly knows its Michigan breds and that’s what we have here with this non-graded stakes winner. Fire Crown already has outrun his inexpensive pedigree, capping a three-race winning streak with that non-graded stakes triumph three back. Since then, Karie has taken her shots in high-class mile races, and Fire Crown has failed to hit the board in a Grade 2 and Grade I. She takes another shot at the graded level here but cuts back to six furlongs. If Fire Crown is the pull an upset here Saturday, he will have to be passing horses late.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!