Howie returns to defend the crown’s Middle Jewel
Just two weeks ago simmers worldwide watched an amazing race at Kentucky. Lucky’s Howie won the Bluegrass Derby by two lengths, but the filly You See La was closing hard in the final strides no doubt causing a bit of worry among the winner’s connections. Now those two plus five more are back to face seven fresh horses in the G1 Middle Jewel Stakes. We’re shortening the distance a bit to 1 3/16, plus adding a bit of rain to the track, but the purse is still a cool million bucks.
The stakes record has stood for nearly a decade. Set by Unbridled Fury in 2002, the time to beat is 1:53.4. Back then the race was run in the slop; that kind of history may bode well for the winner of this race.
Our post-time favorite at 6/1 is Biochemistry. Dundey5‘s Brahms colt skipped the Derby in favor of a solid win in the mile G3 Barbara Walters the same weekend. While Biochemistry is a graded winner at a mile twice now, his loner longer effort wasnt a brilliant one. In fact the third in the 9f Florida Derby basically spelled the end of Dundey’s Derby dreams with Biochemistry. I suspect we’ll see some limits on how fast the colt can carry his speed, but stranger things have happened than a horse that excels at a mile pulling off a 9f win.
From fourth-place in the Derby to second place on the tote board for the Middle Jewel is Curly Q. The Curlin 2yo won two grades immediately prior to the Derby, and made up a ton of ground in the Derby itself closing from 15 back to hit the wire about 7 behind. He does much better when he’s not nearly as far back. If trainer Lgbost2y has the jockey keep Curly Q a bit closer to the pace he could be dangerous here.
Second in the Derby equals third in the odds for You See La. Trained by Pinerivers, the filly already has earned the distinction of best filly finisher ever in a Triple Crown event. She’s got the talent to set a new standard in this race. Sire Special Week already has a turf classic winner from this crop; a dirt classic winner would set the seal on his status as a premier sire. As for You See La, she’s clearly in great shape and more than competent enough to rock this race.
Dancer’s Secret is the first of two at 9/1 odds. The Rahy colt won the G2 San Felipe, but in a bid for a coveted space in the Bluegrass Derby couldn’t make the grade in the California Lock Prep. A detour to the Heat Less Stakes last month also resulted in a disappointing fourth a half-length away from hitting the board. When on his game Dancer’s Secret is a serious threat, but after two tough losses hard to say if we see the good Secret or the less good Secret show up here.
Left Of Reason hopes to find himself back to the right of reason by cutting back in distance a bit. Twice paced in lock preps prior to the Derby, Reason ran 8th in the big race. It was his only race without at worst a second-place finish. That has every indications of being a sharp anomaly so trainer Simsters7 has every right to believe that Left Of Reason will find himself right back in the winner’s circle.
Kjracing brings the 10/1 Prussian in after a brilliant G2 Heat Less Stakes win last month. That win was less than a tick off the stakes record and showed that this Hussonet colt has the right stuff to play in the big time. Prussion should be sufficiently rested in comparison to many of his peers, and is peaking at definitely the right time. A colt to keep an eye on.
Four horses will start at 11/1. The first, Dehere Peas Bad, started in the Derby but finished a uninspiring seventh. Pre-Derby and pre-Corkscrew (his Derby prep) the Dehere colt was looking very good. If he can get himself back to his awesome ways, the multiple graded winning juvenile could win this one in a big way. Peeps9’s runner does have a bit of an advantage in this crowd as most of the bettor-preferred runners are closers. His preference for being close up may help him avoid the trouble that may face the crowded pack much of the race.
The Pineapple Express rolls into Baltimore straight from the California Derby. It was an excellent third in California, coupled with a solid second in the El Camino, that told trainer Buffy8 Express would be an excellent candidate for a Jewel despute the very long trip east. The Awesome Again colt is sire to try to set the pace in this race, and if he gets an easy lead, watch out.
Perfect Game Ted went from first in the Sand Caste to last in the Derby. After such a strong showing leading up to the big day the Derby finish was a huge disappointment for trainer Youngnhung. Bouncing back strongly in just two weeks is a tall order, but its doable for this talented son of Pleasantly Perfect.
The final 11/1 horse is Zurich, trained by Ariana. The Arch colt is a newcomer to the Triple Crown Trail, but after the brilliant stakes performances he more than deserves a try here. The Derby Trial Stakes last out resulted in a win by almost two and a new lifetime high 105. The extra ground is a bit of a question given the loss at 98.5, but since that was Zurich’s third lifetime start, it can be forgiven.
Moving on to 12/1 we have Solar Expedition. His long odds are surprising given an excellent second-place finish in the G1 Corkscrew. Have to appreciate the extra rest he’s had as well. Saver’s Bernardini colt is well positioned here. He is yet another closer however, and so far isn’t quite as fast on average as some of the others.
Begone Oasis is still eligible for nw3l but with a win in the Florida Derby and a placing at DelPenn Day he’s proven he has the right stuff to succeed at the upper echelon of the sim. Prufrock’s Oasis Dream colt should bounce back from the Derby disappointment in fine shape. Like better than half the field he wants to close, so this may be a very interesting race for him.
The final runner is Call For A.P. Raiderking’s A.P. Indy colt is lighty raced with just 5 starts. He’s also won twice with a max winning speed figure of 81. What convinced his trainer to enter is a respectable fourth in the California Derby. Call For A.P. is major longshot, but stranger wins have been seen around the sim.
And that’s the field for the Middle Jewel Stakes. You See La is a bit of a sentimental choice. A win by Lucky’s Howie would set the sim up for a possible Triple Crown bid in New York in three weeks. Zurich has a strong potential to play spoiler.