THE CARLSBAD LESSONS- GRADE 2

Race : The Carlsbad Lessons – Grade II – $250,000
Track : Italy
Restrictions : All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance : A mile and one half on the Turf

 

What a fine day of racing we have here on Italian Derby Day. One of the biggest race days on the Italian racing calendar. We will look here at the Carlsbad Lessons, a one and a half mile marathon on the grass for older runners. The Grade 2, quarter million dollar purse has attracted a fine field of seven top class runners looking to have their names etched into history. The nasty weather has stayed away, the sun is shining and the turf is more on the firm side. Lets take a look at the field:

 

Breaking from post #1 is the four year old filly CONGRATULATORY(KY)  for the dawgpound stable. By the sire Arch and out of the stakes winning Street Cry mare CONSTITUTIONAL(IRE), CONGRATULATORY has been phenomenal on the lawn having 8 exacta finishes in nine starts including five wins for earnings of $187k. CONGRATULATORY is shipping in from the states in very fine form as she has won two straight and four of five which includes a stakes win in the West Coast Choppers in CA. She has never run this distance but is a perfect four for four at eleven furlongs. CONGRATULATORY makes her graded stakes debut today and takes on males here. She did beat males last time out but this field is much stronger than what she has been facing. CONGRATULATORY gets the services of a red hot jockey in L Gardner who is riding at 17% this year and is listed at 13-1 on the morning line.

 

From post #2 goody brings us STITCH POINT PATCH(KY). By Point Given and out of PATCHES , a stakes placed mare by Touch Gold, STITCH POINT PATCH has found stakes company a little tough thus far. He has top three finishes in ten of his twelve turf starts which include five wins and earnings just under $120k. Stich also has three wins in four starts at this distance, however the loss last out came in the Royal Roo stakes in KY in which he never threatened and finished a well beaten sixth.STITCH POINT PATCH did get the services of a top rider in M McMahan but it does look as if this race is an afterthought as Trainer goody teams up with M McMahan one race earlier in the Italian Derby with one of the top contenders in that race, Fantasteek. STITCH POINT PATCH is listed as a longshot here at 10-1.

 

Trainer mickbriant sends out BUSSELTON(AUS)  from post #3. This four year old colt is sired by Redoute’s Choice and out of a Rock Of Gibralter mare DAISYIFYOUDO(JPN), BUSSELTON has only one career win in seventeen starts but has really come alive as of late. He has really appreciated the distance as he has three second place finishes in his three tries at one and a half miles with a nose loss in the Enough Already Stakes last out. BUSSELTON’S effort last out earned him a speed figure of 107 which is by far his best effort but does stamp him as a contender if he can stave off the dreaded bounce. With the services of Y Lozano, BUSSELTON should wind up cruising along on the front end and taking this field as far as he can. At 14-1, BUSSELTON is the longest price on the board.

 

Breaking directly in the middle of the seven horse field is CHARLIE WAFFLES(KY), a five year old homebred by Distorted Humor out of a Pulpit mare and trained by Optimal. Back after a brief stay in CA, CHARLIE WAFFLES is coming off a nice confidence buiding win in an open Allowance last time out. That was CHARLIE WAFFLES’ thirteenth career win and his career earnings are nearing $1.25 million. This multiple graded stakes winner has run an incredible twenty consecutive races with speed figures over 100. He won the Grade 2 Carlton Fisk in October at this distance but has not threatened in his other three distance tries. CHARLIE WAFFLES gets a good pace setup here and will be unleashing his patented late kick down the stretch. Top Rider J Jubel takes the reigns and CHARLIE WAFFLES is a co-favorite in this field at 2-1.

 

checkmate2 sends out the #5 contender here, TEN CIRCLE(KY) . A four year old colt by Rock Hard Ten and out of a Secretariat mare, TEN CIRCLE is a five time turf winner of $116k. Being most effective at this distance, TEN CIRCLE is 5-3-1 from just nine starts at either 11 or 12 furlongs including back to back allowance wins leading up to this. He has never run in a stakes event and makes the big leap to Grade 2 but TEN CIRCLE does look primed for a peak effort here. He has a favorable running style, a big speed figure last out and a bigger speed figure in his past and being ridden by a very good rider in F Marshall, TEN CIRCLE is a big time contender for top honors at 5-1.

 

In the sixth spot is shadowclaw’s THRACE(KY) . This regally bred son of Empire Maker and out of the Theatrical mare, HECATE(IRE), THRACE’S career earnings are nearing half a million dollars. He has had very good form as of late by winning his last two starts in dominating fashion and has been very good at the distance getting a record of 3-4-1 from ten tries. He is a multiple stakes winner and Grade 2 placed so class is not a concern here either. THRACE is getting good again at the right time and has every opportunity to be competitive here. He has secured the riding services of G Moss and at 3-1 is one of the top three on the morning line.  

 

And finally, breaking from the outside of this seven horse field is your co-favorite NAKED BOOT(KY) . A five year old homebred by Woodman out of a Nureyev mare and trained by chilimac, NAKED BOOT is the class of this field. He has been in the exacta nineteen times in twenty seven turf starts and has earned over $1.8 million. NAKED BOOT won the Grade 2 San Juan Invitational eleven months ago but amazingly has not found the winner circle since. He has lost nine straight times but has five seconds in that span including a second in the Grade 1 Winter Cup. NAKED BOOT has run a few enormous speed figures including a 114 in the Winter Cup try and anywhere near an effort of that caliber will surely dominate this field. A concern is that his numbers regressed his last few and he ran so poorly last out. He did have an excuse with the rains that fell that day but the lack of a killer instinct the last year is why he is not the solid favorite today. N Labreche, the perennial leading rider here in Italy is not concerned at all and takes the mount.

 

This is a very interesting field assembled here today as the top contenders all have question marks. I will give the edge to TEN CIRCLE at 5-1 getting a perfect trip and being the distance specialist. NAKED BOOT should rebound off his poor performance last out but I see his losing streak continuing. THRACE and CHARLIE WAFFLES should battle for the show. STITCH POINT PATCH and CONGRATULATORY will be found wanting late, neither having the necessary kick down the lane to make a big impact but both in the hunt for a minor check. BUSSELTON will take them a long way on the front end but ultimately this field will prove too tough.