Bristol Rovers Catches a Break: Leads a Field of 12 in the Ark
Nobody ever accused this of being a normal year in the long turf division. Consider the situation: $1,000,000 on the line for a G1 race generally regarded as the most prestigious contest for older horses on the European continent. In the field, we have no Sunnybank Memorial. No Allied Assault. No Rain God, and even the three year old superstar
Bristol Rovers, regarded by some as a fifth member of the divisional elite on a level with the aforementioned four stars, leads a strong but reasonably well matched 12 horse field to post today, looking to solidify his credentials as a threat to those four in the Breeders’ Bowl, while 11 horses look to knock him off and establish themselves as reasonably live longshots in that divisional (and probably championship-deciding) feature in several weeks. Let’s take a look at the field:
Grade I
A mile and one half
Good Turf
$1,000,000
All horses, 3 years old and up
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments |
1 | LAURA’S PARADE(ENG) | 19/1 | This six year old mare has some zip out of the gate, and from post position one, she’ll have little choice but to go early. That said, she seems to be just a cut below the best mares in training, which puts her in a difficult position here. She’ll likely be a factor for the first mile out of the gate, but she’s going to be hard pressed to respond when the big boys come calling half a mile from home. | |||
2 | JACQUES | 3/1 | The co-favorite has been off for six weeks since a solid 2nd place finish in a G1 contest over 10 furlongs, and he must be afforded a huge shot based on that performance. He’s actually recorded his two biggest recent wins over 9 furlongs including a victory in the G1 Sand Castle Fee Duty (G1), and since then has stayed well below this 12 furlong trip. If he gets the 12 furlongs, he’s certain to be in the mix at the end, but he’s a dangerous bet; it remains to be seen whether that closing kick is going to be as effective when the pace is a little more relaxed in the early going, as it tends to be when stepping up from 10 to 12 furlongs. | |||
3 | 3/1 | The odds say that he’s on par with Jacques, but few that have been watching this division over the last few months believe that. At his best, Bristol Rovers is on par with the best horses around, and the $5.5 million in the bank prove it. Seems to be in fine form, winning 4 of his last 5 races, losing only the G1 United Nations Handicap, where Dancin In Seattle evidently walked the field through a tepid first mile and cruised home with way too much left in the tank. This one is best when someone is up front to insure an honest pace, and he makes his living by jumping on the leaders just before the deep closers can get there. Often enough, the tactics are deadly, and his cause is helped by his 4: 4-0-0 off track record. Hard to see this one losing today if he runs his race, and if he does indeed take down the big prize, he’ll be dangerous going into the Breeders’ Bowl. | ||||
4 | DOGGIE WALACKI | 9/2 | He’s ranked 18th in the division, 2 spots higher than Bristol Rovers, and he’s still a relative newcomer to the divisional elite, making just his 18th start today. Comes in off of a strong win in a G1 race over 12 furlongs, but his closing kick may not bring him quite to Bristol Rovers when it matters the most. | |||
5 | LUMBIER | 23/1 | Three year old loves to stalk the pace and is bred for the distance, but he comes in off of an allowance race and the speed numbers just don’t suggest he’ll compete. | |||
6 | LUCUS AUGUSTI(IRE) | 15/1 | If this one doesn’t bounce after the huge effort last time out, he has a chance facing his elders for the first time. However, seeing as he wasn’t in the same class as | |||
7 | MILITANT | 5/1 | This G1 winner is ranked 12th in the division, but as a stalker/speed type he’ll have company near the front and he’ll have a bullseye on his back. His G1 win also was recorded against somewhat subpar company as this year’s turf division has been going, and he has yet to run back to that form. If he can secure the lead, however, he’ll be running for a minor award at least. | |||
8 | OTTO ROCK(IRE) | 11/1 | Recorded a graded win a few starts back once he got out of the somewhat imposing shadow of Allied Assault, but has tailed off a little since then. Also another 10-furlong type that may not appreciate the stretch out. We’ll see how the race transpires, but he looks to be just one of a bevy of horses all with similar running styles, and when it gets down to it, Bristol Rovers and Jacques are going to outclass him if they all hit the gas at the same time. | |||
9 | WOETTE’S DELIGHT(IRE) | 11/1 | We’ve stocked a 12 furlong race with 10 furlong horses apparently, because this one is another that seems to be lost at 12 furlongs but willing and able over 10 panels. 12th ranked 3-year old turfer was overmatched by | |||
10 | CASEY’S QUEST | 15/1 | Looks to be in here only to contribute to the painful death of the speed horses when the classier closers are set loose, but that’s nothing new for this one; he’s seen the backside of almost every top turfer in training right now over the course of the year. As he often does, he may hang around for a minor award, but he won’t have a say in the win photo. | |||
11 | TRUE STORY | 31/1 | The only true story today is that this one has a 50/50 chance of finishing in the same zip code as the top few. | |||
12 | CAUSTIC | 83/1 | There’s been some conversation over this somewhat surprising entry, who is acknowledged as a ridiculous shot. He’d need to improve 20 speed points to contend for the win, but he can claim to be undefeated, something that the rest of this field hasn’t been able to claim for a long time. Trainer rori should savor that title though; barring what would rank as the most surprising and significant upset of the week, this one is more likely to be conversing with True Story at the tail end of the field than with Bristol Rovers at the front as these guys come to the finish. |