Shakers Town G3

Eastern Kentucky has a series of graded races this weekend with the feature being a Derby Lock-in Race.  The graded races are kicked off with the G3 Shakers Town stakes which is the eighth race on the card.  This is a sprint race going 5.5 furlongs and any horse age 3 or older is eligible to enter this grass race. 

Taking off from the rail is Certain Victory who is tagged at 4-1.  In his last 8 starts,  Certain Victory has amassed a streak of finishing first or second.  Two races back, he won the Mine Rust Challenge at 6f by a mere nose, but a very impressive speed of 116 on the slop.  This was followed with an even 2^nd in the Cat Cat Memorial(6f) in 103.  Certain Victory makes his maiden start in graded racing but comes with a concern…this will also be his first grass race.  Would like to see how he does on new surface before supporting, but does show class that can’t be ignored.  Maybe worth the risk of a wager in this moderate sized field.

From the second post comes Positive Beagle.  This horse ships in from Japan and distance travel is always a concern.  However, when Positive Beagle went to Japan, he finished second in his sole graded race in the Silk Road (G3, 6f) with a career best speed of 107.  In that race, he was sent off at 14-1.  He has gained some respect and is going to post at 6-1. 

The long shot in the race, Hot Lou, will be in the third post and is at 86-1.  Hot Lou has been in the money 8 of 11 starts.  This race marks his first graded start and he is totally outclassed in the race.  Not having broken the 90-speed barrier works as a huge disadvantage when going against horses who are hitting the 100’s. Hot Lou is a late closer and there is quite a few horses here that will fight up front early, meaning that they will have to burn out to give Hot Lou his best opportunity for an upset.

Out of gate four comes co-favorite Rattlin Rebel at 5-2.  In eight graded starts, Rattlin has picked up one win.  Most of the races had more than 10 entrants and his victory was against a field of 8.  He is consistently hitting speeds over 100, doing this 14 times in his last 16 races.  He loves to run on the lead and will try to wire the field.  He can do it and the smaller field, a handful of unexperienced grade runners in this field and having Caves (21 % win) aboard look to be promising.  He is shipping in from Australia, but has traveled long distances before and performed well.

Wearing #5 in the race is Burlington House.   Burlington is making his second start in graded competition, running once last June with disappointing results.  He has been racing at a variety of distances ranging from sprints to over a mile.  His last two sprints were recently recorded at 108 & 102 for 6f, finishing 1^st & 2^nd respectfully.  7 of his last 8 races were northward of 100 in speed and this 9-2 shot is a late closer who may run down the speedsters.

Longfellow will be departing from post position 6 and is at 5-1.  Longfellow made a brief run on the dirt last summer and was returned back to the grass in late August.  This return has shown vast improvements in his speed, as he easily broke through the 100-level for the first time and has averaged just over 104 since then.  He has one start in graded racing, finishing 6^th at 6f in the Near Tic (G2) running 2 strides back throughout the race. He likes to run near the front and if he can play the stalker he will have a good opportunity to find the win.

Out of gate seven is Noir Sin, a co-favorite at 5-2.  Noir Sin had a decent third in his only graded race last fall in the G3 Diana Ross at 7f.  He has been running speeds over 100 over his last 6 starts, averaging 106.  He has strong late speed that can catch the front runners but he has been coming up short lately, finishing 2^nd or 3^rd in each of his last 5 tries.  He’s capable but needs to time his late charge just perfectly.  He also ships in from Japan and may not have his best game face on.

Yoss Picks:                  4-7-6-1

Trackman Picks:           4-7-1-5

My Picks:                     4-5-1-7