The 5-Series Grade I

Last year was the first running of the G1 The 5-Series stakes in Victoria.  Two horses from last years event, Monte Youn and Sadler’s Prayer, are making a repeat appearance in the 1 ½ mile race.  The race is open to all horses, 3 and up, and will be contested on the turf track, which is flagged as being in good condition.  Most entrants have shown decent results on a wet track, with a few making their first run on the wet surface.  Monte Youn, even though he did not finish on the board last year, is established as the 7-2 favorite for this year’s race.  Let’s see how he matches up to this year’s field.

1.  Bostopper  57-1

It’s always hard to support a horse at 57-1 and unfortunately, Bostopper is one that is hard to support.  His top speed is 96 and that doesn’t look too competitive with the rest of the field spawning off speeds of 100 and even in the 110’s.  Bostopper does show early speed, and will be on the front end early, competing with other speedsters for the lead.  Problem is he has been fizzling out and hasn’t wired the field since last June.  He does get jockey B. Deary (11% win) in the mount, who rode the winning horse last year.

2.  Selkirk Dancer   21-1

I don’t ever recall seeing a horse run a race with a speed of zero.  Selkirk Dancer achieved this in November, apparently pulling up early in the race and not finishing in a non-grade stake race.  One would suspect he was injured, which was not the case, as he raced the following week, finishing 2^nd in an allowance race (12f) with a speed of 102.  I also don’t recall ever seeing a horse get a speed bump of 102 between races before either!   He comes off a dismal effort in a 12f allowance race, finishing 10^th in a speed of 91.  He has been on the board once in last five and hasn’t won in a year.  Just doesn’t look ready to pull off the upset. 

3.  Northern Front  9-1

Northern Front makes the long trip from Louisiana to Victoria for this race.  He doesn’t show any prior overseas travel and I would tread cautiously with this one.  He’s also adding over about a third of a mile to the longest distance he’s ever run before.  This may be due to his last outing where he ran out of real estate, finishing forth in the G2 Double M Memorial, closing late and missing by 4 strides at 9f in speed of 104.   He is bred to run longer distances and maybe able to handle the distance, but the travel could have a wearing effect.  

4.  Rockwells King  6-1

Rockwells King has just recently started competing in graded racing, collecting a 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th (not in that order).  He seems to be missing that 1^st spot.   At the age of 5, Rockwell looks to be in the prime of his career, putting in his 2^nd best life speed marks of 110 in each of his last two starts.  Most recently, he was 2^nd in the Sandy Ray Handicap (G2, 12f).   He is traveling from California for the race, and that should be considered, but he does look like a contender.

5.  Certifiably Insane  7-1

Career-wise, Certifiably Insane is 5-3-3 in 15 starts, which include 3 forth place finishes.  That leaves one race where he did not pick up a purse check, and that was his last race in the G2 Victoria Cup (10f).  Certifiably likes to run near the front, and in that race, he got caught up in the middle of the field, finishing 8^th in a speed of 104.  Perhaps you can blame the jockey for the bad run, having Aggulotto aboard, who only has won one race in 21 starts.  But he gets Fagan for the ride this time, who has one win in 32 starts.  Maybe he didn’t like the track, but he’s running on the same one this time.  These signs don’t add up too favorably.

6.  Napp  11-1

Here’s a horse to watch.  Napp has won 13 of 29 starts and has been on the board 22 times.  In 2009, he cashed in 8 consecutive purse checks before going south in the fall with 2 poor efforts in graded racing.  The 2010 season saw him start off in allowance racing, and not faring too impressively.  His first start was a third at 12 with a speed of 94.  Then he ran 4^th at 11f with a terrifying speed of 86.  However, his last start showed a turnaround with a win at 12f and much improved speed of 107.  He does ship from Florida for this event, but he does love this track.  In 2008 he ran in four consecutive allowance races, with two wins, a place and a show.  Jockey Dowell (17% win) is aboard and there could be some very good value in playing this one.

7.  Naked Boot  9-2

Although Naked Boot has not won a race in nearly a year, he has been hot.  In his last 8 starts, he is 0-5-1 with 2 forth place finishes.  He keeps knocking at the door, as the five place finishes indicate, but just can’t find a way to get in.  He has average a speed of just under 110 in his last four appearances with a second place finish in the Jumpin’ Java Stakes (12f, non-graded) in a speed of 112 over this track last time out.  Naked Boot likes to run just off the pace and has been able to get the lead at the 3^rd call, only to relinquish it late in the race.  Can only hope that he finds a way to hang on to the lead in this trip.

8.  Monte Youn  7-2

Monte Youn is the only entrant in this field who ran in this race last year.  Monte has tons of early speed and set the fractions in the race last year, only to be rundown in the last quarter to finish 4^th by 9 long lengths, but a decent speed of 107.  Since this race, he has a record of 3-2-2, primarily in graded races.  Since the end of 2008, he has not recorded a speed below 107.  A very classy horse who has won over this track in the past.  Hard to ignore.

9.  Sadler’s Prayer  6-1

Sadler’s Prayer ran in this race last year and was second early on, behind Monte Youn, and faded off to 6^th by the end of the race with a speed of 102.  He has tried this track 5 times so far, with a record of 0-2-1.  Sadler has averaged a speed of 106 over his last four starts, but was only able to hit the board once for his efforts.  Sadler will be pressing the issue for the lead and his best chance will probably to lay back a little ways and safe something for the end.  His speed numbers are good, but his performance shows him losing ground at the end.

10.  The Reef Returns   8-1

This is one hard horse to predict.  In 14 career grass starts, he has a record of 5-3-0.  The record is reflective of his performance.  When he has his game on, he is dangerous.  But if you drill into his races a little deeper, one can see that he does not fare well in fields of 10 or more.  On the grass, he has been on the board once in six starts with the larger fields.  Jockey Evans (24% win) is taking the mount, and The Beef Returns has had only one race with a speed below 100 in his last eight starts.  Horse can do well with jockey, but the field size is working against him.

11.  I am Mister Ed   7-1

I am Mister Ed has put in some good races as shown in his last race, the G2 Victoria Cup (10f).  In this race, he was a dozen lengths back at the half and he came thundering home and just narrowly missed by ¼ length in a tight photo and being judged to finish third and a speed of 113 (career best).  This was much improved from his 5^th place finish in the Jumpin’ Java stakes (12f) over the same track in a speed of 107.  Jockey Snappa (6% win) handled I am Mister Ed in the Victoria Cup and gets the call again.  Although he doesn’t win much, he seemed to click with the horse in the last race and there just might be something there.

Yoss Picks:                  8-7-11-9

Trackman Picks:           8-7-4-9

My Picks:                     8-11-6-7